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Saturday, October 22, 2016

Republicans want you to think they’re ready to kick some butt in 2014.

They’re giddily sharing a new article from Politico that says Democrats have given up on the House in hopes of saving their Senate majority. They love hearing that almost as much as a new memo from former Clinton advisor William Galston predicting the public will reject President Obama’s “go-it-alone” approach.

These analyses swell Republican confidence on the premise that it will always be October and November of 2013 for President Obama, with floundering and Obamacare death-spiraling. And with their billionaire donors reinvigorated and involved in the primary process, the GOP expects 2014 to look a lot more like 2010 than 2012.

The truth is the president’s approval ratings have begun to improve, slightly, and he remains leagues more popular than Republicans and Congress as a whole. And while Democrats are probably correct that their chances of winning the House are minute, the likelihood of a GOP landslide has diminished greatly since the dark days of December.

Here’s why Republicans may still blow their third straight chance of winning the Senate.

1. The worst of the Obamacare crisis is over.
The popularity of the president’s health care law has not recovered but data from the insurers suggests that the law is nowhere near the peril its critics imagine. Just over 3 million people have picked a private plan from an exchange and for the first time a majority of the uninsured say they plan to get covered before the March 31 open enrollment deadline.


And Republicans have accepted that repeal isn’t an option, with a majority consistently saying they want to keep and fix the law.

Screen Shot 2014-01-30 at 2.27.14 PM

Now that Republicans are being forced to offer their own alternatives, they’re going to have to defend some uncomfortable things — like tax increases on the middle class paired with tax breaks for the rich. And eventually someone is going to point out that these alternatives require lots and lots of cancelations of insurance plans, which makes it hard to run against cancelations.

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  • Dominick Vila

    I hope the optimistic predictions in this article materialize, but perhaps because I live in the South what I see and hear suggests otherwise. Considering that many of the Democrats running for re-election are from Red districts and states, and that most of the Republicans running for re-election are from the South and the Bible Belt, the most likely outcome is that the GOP will not only hold on to the House but will increase their majority, and they may come close to controlling the Senate. If the latter happens, that will be the end of President Obama’s second term agenda, and it may result in a conservative super majority in the Supreme Court. Hopefully Southerners will see the light and realize that voting for GOP candidates is against their best interests, but I am not holding my breath.
    A key to level the playing field may be a few sequels to the emotional recognition and praise expressed by President Obama at the end of the recent SOTU.

    • disqus_ivSI3ByGmh

      Dominick, the sad thing is no matter how many times some of these GOP candidates shoot themselves in the foot and do things that cause distress to their own constituents, they still do a better job of presenting themselves as defenders of those same constituents their very policies harm.
      Add to the fact that they paint every Democrat running with the same brush used against Clinton (Hillary and Bill), Obama, Beiden, Reid and Pelosi, regardless of that candidate’s platform or policies. And the Democrats seem to be unable to make those voters realize the truth about the people they insist on supporting!
      Then you had the Republican who recently stated that he wanted to eliminate ALL minimum wage laws, and let all people be paid what they were worth. Guess with that, he kinda proved that he really isn’t worth his Congressional salary!
      What truly scares me is their more vocal supporters who have made it abundantly clear that if you are not a White, Protestant, anti-gun-control male, your opinion doesn’t matter to “Real Americans”! And you should just pack up and leave! These guys would love to see Congress pass an Amendment that overturns the 13th, 14th, 15th, 24th and 26th Amendments so they could have “THEIR AMERICA” back.

      • Dominick Vila

        Most of them proudly display stickers that read “Take America Back”. Back to what? The pre-abolition days? The pre-Civil Right days? The George W. Bush days when deceit was used to invade two countries that did nothing against us while giving a free pass to Saudi Arabia, the homeland of the 9/11 terrorists, OBL, and the Wahhabist princes that financed that tragedy? The days when torture was justified by calling it “enhanced interrogation techniques”? Iran-Contra? The cut and run in Lebanon? The days when deregulation allowed ENRON, AIG, JP Morgan, Bernie Madoff and every crooked executive in the country to get away murder? I wish they were a little more specific on what they really have in mind, although it is not too difficult to envision what their goals are.

        • Kathy Miller


          ★★★ ★�★★ ★★★⥭★ ★★★Well, it might strike some voters as wrongheaded, and very

      • mike

        What a crock of Horse Manure.
        In your eyes you believe if one doesn’t agree with you, holds a different point of view, on Social Issues, Gay Marriage, Abortion, Economy then they are considered stupid or intolerant. You show an arrogance that you are always 100% right and the other 100% wrong,,0,7509024.story

        You should be outraged that Senator Schumer would want Obama Administration to use the IRS(Again) to silence other parties or persons from giving an opposing view.

        You believe your left wing world view is more important than the real world.

      • elw

        Call me optimistic, but I believe that the thing that is going to kill GOP is the war on women they are claiming they do not have. Whether they admit it or not most Christian women take birth control and many of them are sexually active before marriage, they may not speak of it in front of their parents, bothers, father or church friends but the resent that talk. The demographic voting data makes me believe that many of them are claiming they voted for the conservative candidates but do the opposite. I actually have conservative female friends who have admitted that to me, with their finger over their mouth asking me not to tell anyone. The GOP cannot hold anything without the women’s vote.

    • sigrid28

      I wonder whether some chickens will come home to roost when southerners finally get their repair bills for damage to cars and towing in the ice storm that paralyzed most of the South all week. Democrats already know who to blame. Republican faith in the Good Old Boys that run local government, and perhaps the conviction that government should do as little as possible, may have been shaken up by Mother Nature and the jet stream. By this November, some voters may be aware that the new “haves,” with a living wage and health insurance, don’t live in their Red state. Women of both parties paying $100+ per month for birth control when others no longer have to pay for it out-of-pocket will not be happy, either. Democrats must help them understand which party is to blame. When Republicans are angry or feel aggrieved, they vote! The question is, will inconvenience trump ideology?

      • charleo1

        Well, it might strike some voters as wrongheaded, and very
        Republican. For Governor Deal to worry more about the possible losses in profits that would result if he called a
        state of emergency, and shut down Atlanta. Rather than
        error on the side of caution, when it came to the safety of
        the citizens of his State. Especially the children. And they
        probably won’t be able to blame Obama. But, never over-
        underestimate, as W. used to say, the ability of the GOP
        spin misters, to find a way to blame women’s libidos. And,
        of course, scoff at pointy headed scientists, about global

      • mike

        Gee, most of the southern major cities on this chart are Democrats(exceptions Miami and Virginia Beach).

      • plc97477

        The best thing dems can do is make sure as many people as possible get out and vote. The more people who vote, the better the dems chances.

    • mike

      November is a long way off and anything can happen. And, the rep. party could shoot themselves in the foot. Stay tuned!!!!

      As to the minimum wage I think it should be passed but in a way that teenagers entering the work force would be paid less and the adults paid more. Maybe a little to idealistic but it could happen. Having said that I do believe the decision is with the owner not the fed. govt..

      As to Obamacare it is far from over, this year we will see just how bad the business community will be hit by higher premiums, ect.. Also, Kaiser’s new poll doesn’t bode well at this time for ACA.

      As to employment numbers Obama used have all been shown to be misleading, cherry picked, by the Fact Checkers.

      As to the last remark, Mark Murray, of NBC News thought Obama was telling Remsburg’s story to tell his own story of his struggles against the GOP. How Murray could look at Remsburg and what he went thru and compare it to Obama is the essential foundation of political reporting in Washington D.C.. To try and use Remsburg to further his agenda is not only pathetic but an insult to every American soldier and veteran. Dom, “a few more sequels” pretty low on your part. Just remember it was Obama’s new rules on engagement(ROE) that tied the hands of the military in Afghanistan. Since taking off 1500 deaths.

      • elw

        You again pick and choose information and represent it dishonestly. You Kaiser poll was taken before September 2013 and as you know was even before open enrollment and during the GOPs expensive campaign to woo the hearts and mind of the public against it. Polls are just a moment in time and that one is five month old and the purpose of the poll is a baseline so they can compare it to the two that will follow in the next year. Talk about cherry picking and misrepresenting fact, you well out do the President.

        • mike

          I guess you can’t read, if you look at the top of the page it says January 2014. So save the outrage and BS. When you open kff below I want you to click on “see poll findings”. Good luck.

          Yes, polls are moment in time but when every poll has him with a 58% to 63% disapproval, it is more than a moment in time.

          What many saw was a Chastened and Weary President. Lowest TV ratings in 14 years, could it be he is no longer trustworthy in the eyes of the American people??

          • elw

            Your hate of the President is to the points of mental illness. You can read all the polls you want none of them will impeach the President or repeal the ACA; learn to live with it you have no other choice.

          • mike

            I don’t hate the President, I dislike his policies, sadly, you try and protect and enable him. The man is so disconnected when it comes to governing and his party. Reid the morning after SOTU just about killed his trade push he wanted passed quickly.

            I never said impeach or repeal.

            I am glad you got to see the Kaiser Poll that was done in January not before implementation. How you could confuse dates is beyond me.

          • elw

            See what I mean twisted, you are so focused on anything and everything that you think makes the President look bad you link everything to it. The bottom line, like it or not you have to live with it. You can focus on all the polls you want, every negative statement but President Obama is still you President until the beginning of 2017 and the ACA will be here for decades from now. BTW, I happen to like the Presidents policies (at least most of them) and that does not translate into enabling nor do I have to protect him, he does that well enough on his own. You are just a poor looser who is still trying to prove you have won.

          • mike

            Obama makes himself look bad, he doesn’t need our help.

            And bet you love the Insider threat Program launched in 2011. The most Transparent Administration ever. LOL!!!

            Don’t forget he expanded NSA, but he just wants us to trust him. LOL!!!

            David E. Sanger, veteran Chief Washington correspondent of the New York Times on Obama Administration: “This the most closed, control freak administration I’ve ever covered.”



            You must be proud of this policy on whistleblowers, he promised to protect them but once in office that all changed.

            I have never trusted any administration but this one scares the hell out of me and it’s looking like the Press is wondering why they backed him.

            You have Schumer wanting to use the IRS to control the opposition, Shameful, as was Nixon.

          • plc97477

            Mike does have one option, and I hope he looks into it, He can move to some country that does not have a black president. He could move to toronto and enjoy ford, for instance.

          • elw

            As my mother use to say, “from your mouth to God’s ears.” I find Mike rather pathetic.

      • Robert Roberto

        There are teenagers that work harder because of being younger, so why would they get paid less? Equal pay is what women want in the USA, so how about equal pay to these teenagers too.

        • mike

          I see you have never run a business. Every business takes a risk/chance with teenagers with little to no experience/skills in the work force. It is an opportunity for them to experience and understand the business world. Hard work is expected but not all work hard. A good manager will pay more once that teenager is found to be an asset.
          Different pay for the teenager and the experienced and older worker is an idea to get the teenager started. Nothing more.
          A manager/business owner will take an experience worker every time.
          Hell, in your world you want to pay every one the same.
          We are seeing a whole generation of teenagers not finding work and learning the skills of the business world. The Obama Economy(and it is his economy) has the lowest ever teenage employment.

          By the way that equal pay crap that you all complain about is just that crap. Office of BLS has shown that not to be the case.

          Just another lie from the Liar and Chief. Anything to divide this country, Lie Lie Lie.

    • elw

      I have to agree with you on Conservatives, they vote on limited issues and trust their financial well-being into the arms of their God. I live in a progressive State (CA) but in a very Conservative area. Many of my neighbors are living in the 1950s. However, the longer I live here the more moderates and progressive I find, I believe it is a matter of getting the vote out. It may not completely defeat them, but I think it will help keep them contained.

    • plc97477

      I still expect the gotp to say or do something stupid and end their chances of taking any seats and probably losing some of what they have. I admit I live in a mostly blue state and see things differently, but I can’t see the gotp do anything but try to discuss legitimate rape or shutting down the government again. They are self-destructive.

      • old_blu

        I suspect they are going to be nice until the midterms I think they are in damage control mod right now and they know how short the American people’s memory is, and they’re going to be playing on that. So we have to remember and vote.

  • Bill Thompson

    The upcoming election is crucial to the poor and under represented citizens of this country. As this article suggests the worst of the Obama care problems seem to be over. Make no mistake the attacks will continue to come. I live in the Northeast on Long Island actually one of the stronger Republican areas of New York State, it is hard for me to find anybody that thinks the rollout of Obamacare or Obamacare in general is good for the country. Long Island is one of the more affluent areas in the country people make money here in no way where they affected by Obama care, yet their disdain for the program is palatable.
    As far as picking up seats in the house I believe the Democrats may pick up a few but nothing near the majority. The Senate is at risk, the fact that most of the seats that are in play are in red states should give Democrats great concern. In the end this is going to come down to Democratic leadership speaking in a unified voice and rebutting all the lies that come out of the right. This has not happened in the past the Democratic leadership has allowed itself to be bullied, if the lies were rebutted early on this fiasco would not be continuing to this day.
    The upcoming election is going to pivot on one thing and that is getting poor people to vote. The minority population has to stand up and vote in the midterm election the same way they voted when Pres. Obama was up for reelection. At this point massive voter drives should be well underway by the leadership in the democratic organizations throughout the country. In my area no such actions are in play. I contacted the Democratic National Committee and was told there are no such drives in place on Long Island.
    As far as the house goes due to gerrymandering the Democrats would have had to win a particular district by as much as 8 to 9 percentage points. The future of Pres. Obama’s presidency lay with getting poor people to vote for their own best interest. In my opinion the poorest amongst us are some of the most religious amongst us and are being played like fiddles by the GOP. Make no mistake the wealthy always vote with their wallet. i for one am very concerned.

  • charleo1

    Politics, politics. Is politics even a popular subject? Ask, most people will
    tell you they hate politics. Almost as much as they dislike, or distrust the
    government. Polls say, that’s what people tell pollsters. They also tell pollsters they vote in much larger numbers than they actually do. So, I think people vote less often than they would like anyone, even the dispassionate poll takers, to know. And, I also suspect they like their politicians, and the government, much more than they will admit. Especially in a social setting they believe is mixed. So, would people really dislike someone for being a Democrat, if they were a Republican, or vice versa? Yes. Completely? Usually not. But, would a staunch Republican distrust a Democratic President more, if that President were Black? Would they tell a pollster if they did? Probably not. Does this hurt Democrats running in the more Conservative Whiter, districts? Well, if people knew the stakes, the issues, or what it would mean for struggling families, if these heartless Republicans took back control of Congress? For Obama’s Presidency?!! We’ve all watched Jay Leno, as he demonstrates the horror, or hilarity depending on one’s point of view. Of the number of people that can’t recall the name of the Vice-President, but know the exact weight of Kim Kardashian’s and Kayne West’s new baby. Did they really name it North? Cynics, who say they believe the Country is doomed, enjoy this I think. They tend to vote Republican. And talk a lot more about Armageddon during Democratic Administrations. Like in West Virginia, where only one in four believe President Obama is doing a good job. They blame him for their poverty, as if they’ve forgotten they were poor before. Poor when there was a Democrat, and poor when there was a Republican. But, they believe the Republicans. Why?
    Democratic Senator, and former Governor of W, Virginia, Joe Manchin is sitting in one of those Senate seats they are very worried about losing. Sixty Minutes did a piece on one of the poorest sections in W. Virginia. Where almost everyone has managed to get on Social Security Disability. It is supporting an entire economy up there, since the bottom fell out of coal prices. They believe the lower coal prices are Obama’s fault. I guess, because they would rather blame him, than the boom in natural gas. But, are they listening to all the Right Wing talk on government dependency? When the T-Party, which is very popular in Appalachia, talks about the shiftless lay abouts, on the public dole. Do they realize, as they cash their disability checks, and SNAP supplements their only source of income, these Republicans are talking about them?
    Apparently not. They believe they are talking about the inner city Blacks, and Mexican immigrants, soaking up welfare benefits, not them. How does the GOP get people to vote aganist, what is very apparent to be in their best interests? Well, common sense should should tell us, they lie
    to their poorer constituents. They lie a lot to them. And, they don’t get
    bogged down with a lot of confusing solutions. They talk about freedom, and Liberty, and God. And the mystic blessings bestowed on an America
    by a pleased God. And the hardships imposed on the Country, and them, by a God displeased by the Secularist Democrat’s support of abortion,
    Gays, and the guns the Liberals want to disarm the Country of, so they
    can enslave them to the Government. Very much in the tradition of Ronald Reagan. When he once predicted if Medicare was passed, there would come a day when Grandparents would sit around and tell their Grandchildren, what it was like in America, when men were free. Oh Boy! Politics, politics. Don’t you love it?

    • plc97477

      The hardest part to understand is the red states are the usually the ones hurting from “Gods” displeasure and no one seems to see that. The red states are the state where the most disasters happen, more floods, more droughts, etc.

  • howa4x

    There are some bright spots. If Obama is a drag on the democratic ticket how did DeBlassio win in NYC and McAuliffe win in Va? That shows me that he is not as unpopular as the press has made him out to be. Also the continuing war against women will not help the GOP. Uncle Huck’s libido comments my resonate with the base but not in a general and democratic candidates can tar republicans with that label. Huck is re starting the fight against contraception which will rally the base more rightward. Also what is going on in the GOP states isn’t helping them. Pick an issue from work for less laws, the minimum wage, Anti Latino laws, Voter suppression,union busting, refusal to take the Medicaid expansion, or the urge to push more stringent abortion laws the GOP lands on the wrong side of on what the majority of Americans want. Maybe not in the house races but in statewide contests. In Kentucky the governor has an insurance exchange and is enrolling people. He’s also taken the Medicaid expansion. What does Dr. No have to say about that? I don’t see the republicans taking over the senate.

  • elw

    And the 6th and real reason the Republicans will blow their chance to take the Senate: They are too pig-headed and self righteous to know when to keep their big mouths shut. In addition the larger the geographical area from which they must gather votes the harder it is for them to win. Senators are voted on by the whole State unlike Representatives who have one small district, which are easily gerrymandered, in which they must gather their votes – fortunately, you cannot gerrymander a whole State.

  • ThomasBonsell

    This statement:

    “The GOP is bragging that its advantage on economic issues is higher now than in 2010, when they won the House.”

    is most puzzling to those of us who exist in the real world.

    There is no way on earth that the GOP can have an advantage over Democrats on economic issues. From the end of World War I until today every Democratic administrations has outperformed every GOP administration on every economic category worth mentioning. That is clearly shown in the book “Saving America: Using Democratic Capitalism the Rescue the Nation from Economic Folly”.

    For those who have a strong resistance to reading books and wish to challenge the facts presented above; don’t bother until you have Googled such items as:

    “Job creation under GOP and Democratic administrations”

    “GDP growth under GOP and Democratic administrations”

    “Whose better for business; GOP or Democrats?”

    “Economic growth under GOP and Democrats”

    “Government debt under GOP and Democrats”

    “Government deficits under GOP and Democrats”

    And any other economic-related topic you can think of.