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Sunday, September 25, 2016

As of Monday afternoon, The New York Times’ poll guru Nate Silver gives the president a more than 86 percent chance of being re-elected. Legendary analysts Stan Greenberg and James Carville are also predicting victory for Barack Obama. Business Insider’s Joe Weisenthal is predicting a win for the Democrats based on the good economic news that’s come in over the past few months and the fact that the losers usually pick apart the polls trying to explain why they’re going to win.

There are Republicans who see certain victory in the crosstabs of the polls—Michael Barone, George F. Will and Peggy Noonan. But when you’ve been wrong about every major issue in the past decade, how will one more bad prediction hurt you?

If you’re like me, you’re torn between giddy confidence that all observable data is pointing to an Obama victory and a churlish fear that the GOP can pull off some sort of subversion of the voters’ will— à la 2000.

Something could wrong on November 6 and throw the White House back to the party of 9/11, Tora Bora, Iraq, Katrina and financial crisis. Here’s how that could happen:

1. The polls are all wrong.
The president’s lead in national polls is razor thin—.4 percent. But this election will be decided in three states: Ohio, Nevada and Wisconsin. In Ohio, the president leads by 3 percent. In Nevada, he’s up by 2.8 percent, and the reliable Ralston Reports that called Harry Reid’s unlikely victory over Sharron Angle thinks the president will win by 4 percent. In Wisconsin—the home state of Romney’s running mate Paul Ryan—the president is up by 4.2 percent.

What are Republicans seeing in these polls that gives them hope? First they quibble with the sample size, which is Democrats up by between 1 and 8 percent. They expect the electorate to closely resemble 2010 when there was almost no discernible Democratic turnout advantage. They fail to recognize that Republican Party identification is way down since 2008, thus Romney is doing very well with “independents.” Independents will settle this election, they claim. John Kerry won independents in 2004, that didn’t settle the election.

But as we’ve said: If the polls are wrong, they’re probably underestimating the president’s support.

2. Some major shenanigans.
You’ve probably heard about the “emergency” software updates that Ohio’s Secretary of State had installed in the past few weeks, just as before the 2004 election. From this news it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where the machines were fixed for Bush then and they will be fixed for Romney in this election. If that’s true, there’s no hope except a Justice Department investigation that will come too late.

However, we know for sure that in 2004 thousands of voters left the lines because they were so long. This is an observable problem that seems to be happening again. And it could definitely affect this election.

  • old_blu

    GET OUT AND VOTE!!! Don’t be a pussy Republican stand in line if you have to, but vote.

    • neece00

      I know there will be long lines, Florida has 13 pages of voting material, but we have to do it to get our country out of the hands of the tea party.

      • barbarahugh

        MY GRANDDAUGHTER IS VOTING FOR THE FIRST TIME!!WE WERE SO EXCITED , SHE IS IN COLLEGE IN SALEM,VIRGINIA IN A PRIVATE COLLEGE THEY GAVE ALL THE STUDENTS (DEMS)THAT WERE GOING TO VOTE THE ADDRESS WHERE TO GO .IT WAS SUPPOSE TO BE IN A METHADIST CHURCH , BUT WHEN THEY GOT THERE (?) THERE WAS NO SUCH ADDRESS , THEY WERE ASKING PEOPLE FOR HELP BUT NOBODY KNEW WHERE TO GO AND VOTE(?) SHE FINALLY WENT TO THE CITY HALL AND SHE FINALLY VOTED .I AM SORT OF HURT DUE TO THE SCHOOL WAS THE ONE WHO GAVE THE GIRLS THIS ADDRESS ,THEY GOT UP EARLY 5:30 AM TO MAKE SURE THEY VOTED ,AND HAD TO WALK AROUND TO FIND THE CORRECT PLACE .MISTAKE ON THE ADDRESS WHERE TO VOTE ? I DOUBT IT VERY MUCH!!! I TOLD HER TO GO TO THE OFFICE AND TELL THEM AND TO PASS THE WORD AROUND THE THE SHEET OF PAPER GIVEN BY THE COLLEGE IS NOT CORRECT AND THAT ADDRESS EXIST.I WONDER HOW MANY STUDENTS ARE HAVING THE SAME PROBLEM???????

  • MethMouthMary

    Yes, I have voted. I voted for Obama.

  • nobsartist

    President Obama will win by a landslide and by such large margins that there will be no doubt.

    bye, bye willard.

    by the way, where are those tax returns?

  • nobsartist

    if republiCONs are doing so well, how come most will not even admit to being one?

  • dtgraham

    Click on the blue emergency software updates link. It will bring you to a piece of investigative journalism that also has an embedded video, which will lead to other videos. It looks like they’ve planned another man in the middle election flipping software fraud scheme in Ohio for today. Husted won’t answer why he’s installed some special experimental tabulator software one week before the election against all rules governing this.

    It may be like 2004 where the data was rerouted to a Republican server in Chattanooga Tennessee or it may be something different, but something’s up.

    • grammyjill

      The machines in PA, if you vote Obama it comes up Romney.

  • ANN

    I voted for President Obama. And I’m Proud!!

    • barbarahugh

      GOOD FOR YOU AND THE COUNTRY !!!WE VOTED THE FIRST DAY OF EARLY VOTING IN NORTH CAROLINA !!! WE VOTED FOR PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA!!
      WE HAVE BEEN PRAYING AND PUTTING A CANDLE FOR OUR PRESIDENT TO BE
      SAFE SINCE THE EARLY VOTING STARTED HERE . WE ARE VERY PROUD TO GIVE
      OUR LOVED PRESIDENT OUR VOTE !!!!!!

  • Skyline43

    Let’s get this voting fixed! This is America not Russia. EVERY state should work on getting the votes out efficiently and correctly so people do not have to stand in line for hours. This needs to be done long before election day. If the STATES CAN’T FIX THE PROBLEMS, MAYBE THEY WILL NEED SOME HELP FOR THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT! Any threat of government help, may send them into a frenzy to get it done! Republicans do not like to much government. Republicans in some states are the cause for much of the voting problems.( ex. Florida)

  • Voter suppression is the most likely culprit. And it’s also why, if Romney does win, his entire presidency will be viewed as illegitimate, the results challenged, and Romney will consider himself lucky if he even gets to see the White House, much less break through the angry mob and actually get to it.

    If Romney wins, he will be the first president to be legally removed from office. He’s proven, both in business and in politics, that he doesn’t know how to accomplish anything except to lie and cheat its way through. He’ll get caught, the Democrats will go out for him, the Tea Party will turn on him so they can have their darling Paul Ryan as the POTUS, and the G.O.P. establishment politicians will only think of covering their own asses and drop Romney like a lead turd.

    One way or another, there’s going to be a lot of noise on November 7th. The only thing to be seen is whether it will be a very real, very legitimate challenge from the left, or just another four-year temper tantrum from the right.

    • dtgraham

      There was a court challenge at 9:00 this morning that will decide whether Husted’s special experimental add on software will be allowed today. Just found out about that. The problem is that it’s being heard by a George W Bush appointee judge. The thing is that even if Husted’s scheme is thwarted and Obama is able to overcome all of the other suppression obstacles and win, people still need to take this just as seriously as if it had been successfully stolen for Romney. This was only discovered by accident and excellent investigative journalism.

      U.S. elections are now being routinely electronically rigged. Sonny Perdue and Saxby Chambliss’s victory in Georgia in 2002 was created by Diebold. They actually lost. Nobody could have overcome being behind that far in the polling data that late in the game. Bush absolutely did not beat Kerry in Ohio in 2004 either. Smartech beat him.

      There are already voting machine videos being uploaded to the internet. Someone touched the screen for Obama this morning and Romney was highlighted as her choice. I just saw it.

      • ObozoMustGo

        dt… my Socialist Canadian buddy… how are you? I hope you are well. I miss NHL hockey. I’m sure you feel the same. I hear they could be close to a deal. Can’t wait.

        I read your post and I could not help seeing that you’ve been wearing your tin foil hat a lot these days. Conspiracy around every corner and every voting machine, eh? I don’t trust the machines either. I’d rather have a standard paper ballot where you fill in the dots with a pen. It will obviously take a longer time to vote, then scan and count them, but I’d rather have a fair and honest election than a quick voting process.

        By the way, it’s the Dems that are the voter fraud party, not the Repubs.

        [click image to enlarge]

        Have a nice day!

        “The danger to America is not Barack Obama but a citizenry capable of entrusting a man like him with the Presidency…Blaming the prince of the fools should not blind anyone to the vast confederacy of fools that made him their prince. The Republic can survive a Barack Obama, who is, after all, merely a fool. It is less likely to survive a multitude of fools such as those who made him their president.” – Czech Republic newspaper Prager Zeitung

        • dtgraham

          No, actually I stay away from the conspiracy stuff most of the time. Most of it is Obama having his gay bath house lover murdered. The one that he met from Jeremiah Wright’s down-low dating club. Stuff like that. Oh alright, I did consider that one for a while but then thought……..naaaaah. (kidding)

          It’s just that when I see a preponderance of circumstantial evidence from what I believe are very credible sources, I stop laughing it off momentarily and start looking into it. That was the Presidential election of 2004. I kept seeing stuff on the internet and then read a long impressive study from professors of statistics at the University of Chicago (several) who made a very compelling case for the mathematical impossibility of Bush losing a professionally done exit poll by 3 percentage points (Ohio), but then winning that same election by 2 percentage points. Even then, for a long time after that, the most I would say was that there was a greater likelihood of Ohio being stolen than not. Just a greater likelihood although I couldn’t say for sure and wouldn’t commit to it. I’ve since seen enough to now convince me of what happened. The re-routing of voting data to Tennessee was discovered by cyber analysts years ago. The basic mechanics of how it was done is now known. As one security professional put it, the FBI jump all over credit card fraud with far less information and proof than this. Why not this?

          I think we may be back to the Swedish elite league in Canada this year. When the NHL shut down for a year 7 seasons ago, the CBC and TSN (our ESPN) showed several games per week from the Swedish professional league across Canada. Looking back on it, I still get a chuckle thinking about Canadian guys earnestly discussing some upcoming game between Gottenberg and Stockholm. We were desperate. That was damn good hockey actually.

          • ObozoMustGo

            dt… voter fraud is a growing problem here. In some county in Kentucky, local guys were caught paying people to vote. They were both Dem and Republican. You know, some little jerkwater town in the middle of nowhere. Now the Dems here are the ones that fight voter ID. That’s because they load voter roles with dead people and have people vote multiple times under different names. They do this constantly. That’s why they hate a legitimate effort to make the election more honest and legitimate when 80% of America agrees that it’s OK to have people show ID. You have to show ID to buy cigarettes, rent a hotel room, get a beer, drive a car, and a million other things. It’s reasonable to have them do it to vote.

            As to hockey, they have been showing the euro stuff on the NHL Network and on NBC Sports as well as Comcast here. Plus my older son has lot’s of games and they are fast, aggressive, and fun to watch at the Tier 1 level. While I am getting my hockey fix somewhat, I still miss the real deal in the NHL.

            Nice to chat with you again, dt. Have a nice evening!

            “We take the shortest route to the puck and arrive in ill humor.” – Bobby Clarke

    • grammyjill

      My brother said if Romney wins he will make history. He’ll be the first president to be shot by a woman.

  • Whittier5

    Author: “a churlish fear that the GOP can pull off some sort of subversion of the voters’ will— à la 2000.” and
    ” we know for sure that in 2004 thousands of voters left the lines because they were so long”

    Don’t forget 2004, and probably 1994 & 2010, too.
    While we don’t “know for sure”, we can “know for” pretty certain, that the vote count in Ohio was rigged between the OH Secy of State Blackwell and the nefarious Wrong-winger operation counting the votes somewhere in the mtns of VA.
    The reason we don’t “know for sure” is that the plane carrying the “project manager” of the operation to his Federal Court appearance mysteriously ‘fell from the sky’ enroute .. ala Paul Wellstone, and Hale Boggs & Nick Begich in ’72, and et al.

    With less than 4 days left in Campaign ’94, Democratic polling saw no hint of the “Blue Flu” that swept all of America in more of a tsunami than the 2012 teawhackadoo “ankle-deep” one. So, what happened??

    In CA Gov. Gray Davis Re-call, margins were similar in all counties across CA to his prior win, EXCEPT in a few precincts in East LA. Very curious, my dear Watson.

    In 2010, there was a also a very curious change in vote casting from 2008, which is a more complex situation than the author describes. How did ‘just enough’ more Repubs and con-leaning Indies vote at every level in most every State in 2010 than in 2008, with a corresponding fall back in Demo and progressive-leaning Indies?? Too pervasive to be explained by the “atmosphere” of 2010 vs 2008.

    If something about an Election or Event look suspicious and Republicans are involved, be very suspicious.

    • dtgraham

      This is all really interesting stuff and you can spend hours on it. I’m honestly not big on the conspiracy deals but I don’t necessarily write them off either if they’re plausible, make sense, and aren’t wackaloon. I think there may very well be something to a Karl Rove group whacking your “project manager” (programmer) Mike Connell. He had received threats from Rove himself and, in one incredible piece of correspondence, he actually urged Connell to “take the fall for 2004 Ohio.” One of the deposition lawyers discussed it on camera. A high ranking GOP operative was alleged to have said to him that “you’re aware that you’re dealing with people who have guys whacked.” Again, discussed on camera by that same lawyer.

      Did you know that very odd mechanical problems were caught by mechanics servicing his small plane, cancelling a number of his flights prior to the fatal one? About a year after his death a letter was received detailing exactly how his plane was sabotaged, in military terms. Connell was referred to as an NST (national security threat) in the document. Amazingly, the document was signed as Mark Felt—-from Deepthroat Watergate fame. By then, he’d passed away if it really was him. Don’t know what his connection to all this would have been.

      Well, before I go off the deep end here permanently with this crap, I think I’ll go back to watching election coverage.

      • Whittier5

        Very interesting about Mark Felt. I have a connection who was close to him in retirement, and will ask if he has any further info on this.

        Yes, I had heard there were “some” problems, but nothing beyond that.

        Not to set you to think “wackaloon”, but I used to be very close to the JFK investigation and part of the production team for a movie version of “Best Evidence”. Just know that the shot was not fired by Lee Harvey.

        But, “they” have found other techniques for “regime change”: negative and intimidation advertising and stonewalling in the Senate AND rigging the Vote Count, while trying to distract the Electorate with the necessity of “Voter ID”.

        • dtgraham

          In the 90’s I recorded a 5 hour documentary called “The men who killed Kennedy” from the history channel. It was one of the most remarkable things that I’ve ever seen on television. If better use has ever been made of television, I haven’t seen it. It was shown a handful of times back then and has never been shown since, and I’ve lost the VHS recordings.

          It was actually traced to organized crime on the French island of Corsica. There, mob figures described anonymously where the gunmen were placed, how these places were determined, and who arranged it all up to a certain level.

          I don’t know how many people are aware of it, but the United States congress conducted their own inquiry into the assassination in the 70’s. The actual official position of the United States government since 1979 is “probable second gunman, probable conspiracy.” It’s no longer lone gunman. That position was from 1964 to 1978. JFK’s murder is the single best example of not automatically writing off a conspiracy theory. People just stuck with it because they felt they had good reason to.

  • Whittier5

    The League of Women Voters should be given the mandate to handle the Elections and get rid of the politically elected county Registrars or Secys of State.
    All voter registration should be on National basis, State at a minimum. County makes no sense in the 21st Century.

  • ObozoMustGo

    Obozo only needs 1 way to lose this election: more people knowing his record. Here’s just a small listing of that failed record and why Obozo needs to be evicted from our White House:

    – $6 TRILLION more in debt.
    – 47 Million on food stamps, up from 32 million in just 4 years
    – $5,000 per year decline in average income
    – GDP growth of 1.3% year over year…. that’s less than inflation
    – gasoline prices more than double
    – food prices up at least 8% on average
    – Real unemployment rate of 14.7% (that’s U6 from BLS) and over 8% (U3) for 42 months
    – not a single budget passed in 4 years
    – 1st American ambassador killed since Jimmy Carter (now the 2nd worst president in history)
    – $90 BILLION poured down the drain on green energy scams
    – $80 BILLION poured down the drain on foreign car company Chinese Motors (formerly GM)

    Now THAT’S a great track record to vote for. Way to go Obozo! Only a leftist freak could want more of this torture.

    Have a nice day!

    “The danger to America is not Barack Obama but a citizenry capable of entrusting a man like him with the Presidency…Blaming the prince of the fools should not blind anyone to the vast confederacy of fools that made him their prince. The Republic can survive a Barack Obama, who is, after all, merely a fool. It is less likely to survive a multitude of fools such as those who made him their president.” – Czech Republic newspaper Prager Zeitung

    • Whittier5

      @ObozoMustGo, do you Big Lie for a living?? You are wrong on virtually every point you think you are making. IF you really think you are correct, turn off Faux Noise, and do some reading. You’ll soon find out that you have been lied to.

      E.g., At the end of the last W Budget, the National Debt (“ND”) was ~$14.5T with the Bush Spending Spree continuing fairly full force. Obama was not allowed to make any more significant cuts by the Treasonous neo-GOP & neo-Confederate Senators. The Gross ND stands today at ~$16T, which on a Gross basis is only ~$1.5T.
      However, Obama has stop the hemorrhaging in Iraq by bringing OUR Troops home On Schedule. And, he has managed to Save ~$6.6T in Federal Funds, which net against the ND taking the Net ND back to about Bush’s 2005 Level.

      Turn off Faux Noise – or you are the Bozo.

    • You are still posting the crap of a foreign news paper, couldn’t find one in the US that went along with your hate for the President. Your men Romney/Ryan are not going to win even with all the dirty tricks the Republicans have pulled this year. Have a lousy day now and for the next 4 years.

  • S-3

    Already have – straight Democrat, despite not enough of them residing here in South Carolina……. Unless you look into this state’s more urbanized areas.