By Maeve Reston, Los Angeles Times
For Republicans roaring into the midterm election, the last few weeks have brought a wave of good news. President Barack Obama’s poll numbers continue to hover in the 40s. Democrats’ hopes of holding the Senate look slimmer by the day. And the GOP heralded last week’s win in Florida’s special congressional election as evidence that its anti-Obamacare strategy is working.
But some Republican strategists and donors fear that buoyant mood spells trouble for the party down the road — by masking the long-term problems that were so evident after the 2012 election. Chief among them: the GOP’s abysmal performance among Latinos and the growing influence of minority voters in battleground states that will create a steeper climb to the presidency for Republicans with each passing year.
In the short term, Republicans have a reprieve: The makeup of the electorate in November is expected to favor the GOP, because nonpresidential elections draw lower concentrations of the kinds of voters that they have struggled to win over.
In 2012, exit polls show Mitt Romney beat Obama by 20 percentage points among white voters, which made up 72 percent of the electorate, while losing resoundingly among all other racial groups. In this November’s midterm election, whites will constitute a higher percentage of the electorate than in 2012, about 75 percent, according to GOP pollster Whit Ayres.
But that is a very different reality from the one Republicans will face in November 2016. If the GOP does well this fall, “it gives you a false picture about the health of the party heading into a presidential election year,” Republican strategist Steve Schmidt said.
“The long-term problem for Republicans is that in every demographic that is growing in the country, Democrats are gaining market share,” he said, and “in every demographic group in the country that is shrinking, Republicans are gaining market share.”
But with trends going in their favor this year, some Republicans in Congress saw no need to get bogged down in a party fight over immigration legislation stalled in the House. Their argument: It might be an easier sell among Republicans in 2015, when this year’s fractious party primaries are behind them and they might have control of the Senate.
Absent any movement on that front — and despite frustration over increasing deportations under Obama — Latinos gave Democrats far higher marks in a survey released by the Pew Research Center’s Hispanic Trends Project in December.
In the survey, about 72 percent of Latinos said the Democratic Party cared about the issues facing their community, compared with 39 percent who said Republicans did. The sentiments were shared by Asians, whose voting strength is also burgeoning.
This week, on the one-year anniversary of the post-2012 report by Republican leaders that emphasized the need to reach out to Latinos, women and young voters, GOP officials were brushing aside questions about a comprehensive immigration measure whose passage the report had urged. Instead, they focused on a $10 million initiative to engage with minority voters.
Under the initiative, at least 20 paid staffers are working on Latino outreach across 10 states, including California, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. Many of the state efforts are still in what the party calls “phase one”: identifying influential leaders and assessing events, festivals and gatherings where they believe the GOP should have a presence.
This Friday in Florida — where Latinos made up 17 percent of the electorate in 2012, up from 14 percent four years earlier — the Republican National Committee was to announce a new Latino state advisory council in Miami, and on Sunday it will sponsor a float in the Puerto Rican Day Parade in Orlando for the first time in more than a decade. The party will have more than a dozen volunteers surveying attendees as part of its voter identification project.