The National Memo » Sorry, Wrong Numbers: Why The Polls Don’t See Obama’s Winning Margin

Sorry, Wrong Numbers: Why The Polls Don’t See Obama’s Winning Margin

October 29th, 2012written by: Stan Greenberg

I’ve seen tracking polls saying that Mitt Romney is either tied or leading in the presidential race, but we think that they are simply wrong. It’s not a conspiracy theory; those other polls are just simply missing a critical segment of President Obama’s coalition: cellphone users. Failing to survey those who don’t have landlines — who tend to support the president by a significant margin — those polls are blind to the fact that Obama is on track to win re-election on November 6. For our complete Democracy Corps memo on the importance of cellphone polling in this election — with graphs — please click here.

Antiph

Doesn’t Gallup use cell phones in its tracking poll?

markfromla

Yes, but its LV model is ridiculous.

JamesInCA

I’d like to think so, but unfortunately we won’t know if it’s ridiculous until we see how they did relative to the election result. As far as I know, they haven’t released the internals of their recent likely voter tracking poll results, other than the single one a few weeks ago.

http://profile.yahoo.com/LTSKI7JQXPRSYHAF6EFGBCNSZA Maria

Gallup uses 50% landlines and 50% cell phones. I think cell phones are more widely used than this. I have 8 siblings; we are all over 45, and only one has a landline. The ratio of cell phone users to landline users would no doubt be even greater among younger voters.

http://twitter.com/TTHOOM Tim Terrell

And I bet the one who has a landline also has access to a cell phone that they use alot.

http://profile.yahoo.com/Y2CPIY6JRAO2KPMP7U3SUQUI5Q speedy

Tim Terrell, it is “a lot.” There is no such word as “alot,” unless of course you use the idiotic Wikipedia.

http://www.facebook.com/sean.mckusick.5 Sean McKusick

Thank dog for spell check. I did check Wikipedia and “Alot” is in there. Alot, is a town and nagar panchayat in the Ratlam district of Madhya Pradesh, India. Speedy, I don’t see what is so idiotic about that.

irishtap

Not making judgement here but, perhaps speedy is a little slow.

Fubom

If you are going to use speedy as your name, you should capitalize the first letter. That would be “S” in case you are having trouble figuring out which is the first letter. I guess you dont need Wikipedia to be idiotic.
ReneeReads

Yes there is.

michael piltoff

Ya I have both but hate answering my land line..I think I am going to get rid of it! are you cell only?

Landsende

Maria
Most polls only survey 1000 people and of those 1000 only 250 are cell phone users. How can only 1000 be representative of millions of voters? Very few people have landlines any more and those that do use caller ID and voice mail to screen their calls just as cell phone users do which is why you can’t take the polls seriously. They have a 50/50 chance of being right or wrong.

TZToronto

Yes, 1000 respondents can be representative of 1 million people–or even 100 million people. There are two key elements related to the 1000 people, however. They must be randomly selected and representative of the population they relate to. So, for example, you can’t survey 1000 people in California and expect the results to be representative of voters in Pennsylvania. As a result, random selection is often very complex. (In random selection, each potential respondent has the same probability of being surveyed.) That’s why you see percentages of voters for Romney and Obama on a state-by-state basis. It would be more difficult to randomly select 1000 people to represent the entire U.S. electorate, but doing 1000 surveys in each state is somewhat easier (but more costly). In any case, 1000 randomly selected surveys will yield an error factor of 3.1% NINETEEN TIMES OUT OF TWENTY. (I.e., the result will be wrong 5% of the time.) You could take the 1000 surveys from each of the fifty states and weight them to give you a very reliable prediction of the total popular vote, but that’s not necessary if you want to know who will be elected. All you need is an estimate of the electoral votes from each state, and that is based on the 1000 surveys from the fifty states. It is for this reason that you see the popular vote prediction almost tied but the electoral vote prediction heavily favoring Obama. Another point: the fewer people surveyed, the greater the error factor. With 500 respondents, the potential error jumps to 4.4%, nineteen times out of twenty.

DurdyDawg

But still it can at best be a supposition.. The only true poll is that used on November 6th.. No guess work there unless of course you include the electoral college.

TZToronto

Of course, there are decisions made to determine just what constitutes a random sample. In this case, why does the sample contain X% land lines and 100%-X% cell phones? Why isn’t it the other way around? What method is used to select a secondary respondent if the first respondent doesn’t agree to participate? All of these methodological considerations influence the results of the poll. However, the organizations doing the polling try to replicate the methodology each time so that results can be compared over time. You’re right, though. The only poll that counts is the one conducted on Nov. 6. That’s a “census” of voters, not an estimate. There is no margin of error. However, if the polls are off the mark by a lot, then the actual results need to be looked at carefully. Was any type of voter fraud involved, either on the part of the voters or the election officials? I’m thinking that this time around, we’ll see a popular vote victory for Romney but a large electoral vote victory for Obama. (Then we’ll hear the whines from Republicans about how the popular vote should be the result that matters. They didn’t complain when Gore had half a million more popular votes than Bush in 2000, but you can almost guarantee they’d complain if it happened in the reverse in 2012. Sorry, ‘Pubs. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.)

http://www.facebook.com/people/Rudy-Hunter/100000665634710 Rudy Hunter

i live in a house that used to have a land line that 4 of us used! Now we have no land line, but we have 4 cell phones!

jharp

Interesting. I hope you are right.

And what does Nate Silver have to say about this?

billy rubin

I think Nate would say that Stan’s take is jive–but he’d say the same for Goon’s analysis that “Obama’s going to be smoked”. Land-line versus cell-phone user surveys make analyzing polls tricky, and while some of them have a land-line bias that has clearly favored Republicans in the past (Rasmussen was off on the POTUS race as well as a large number of contested Senate races in 2008 by about 4 points, and I don’t believe they’ve changed their methods), pollsters try to correct for these effects in slightly different ways that can make a difference of a point or two, or perhaps more.

There was a good Ohio poll done by University of Cincy I believe over the past few days, for instance, that incorporated cell and land users and showed a dead heat. If you look at -all- the Ohio polling, Big O’s got about a 2.5 point lead, which should be enough that he’s got about an 80 percent chance of winning the state. But that hardly means that Big R is out, only that the hill is higher for him to climb this coming week than it is for Obama. This is clearly born out in the electoral math. Big O only needs one or two of IA, OH, NH, VA, FL, NC, CO or NV to win; Team R needs to run the board to do so.

Whether Sandy will affect the turnout, and which side will get affected, is a further complication, so even a little change could cause a few states to swing from the favorite to the challenger, either catapulting Governor Romney to being President-Elect Romney or to putting the nail in his political coffin (may it be His will). Likewise Big O’s ground game, which is roughly twice the size of Big R’s, might account for as much as a 2 point swing in a close matchup. If that’s true, then he could bury Romney by winning VA, OH, FL and even maybe NC and the polls wouldn’t be able to measure that. But regardless of whether you swing with Goon politically or look at things my way, the polls show an extremely close race, and Stan’s a little too rosy in his assessment.

I think Nate would use a football analogy something along these lines: Obama is up by two with 2:20 to go in the fourth, Romney’s got the ball and two timeouts and he’s on his own 25. Is he likely to win? No. Is it possible for him to win? Sure.

jharp

“I think Nate would say that Stan’s take is jive–but he’d say the same for Goon’s analysis that “Obama’s going to be smoked”.

Of course he’s say Goon’s analysis is jive. Are you trying to be funny?

And Nate doesn’t say Stan’s take is jive. I have learned Nate says quite the opposite.

Stick a fork in Romney. He’s done.

billy rubin

“Nate doesn’t say Stan’s take is jive.”

Nate, yesterday: “the results we’re now seeing are quite consistent with what the economic fundamentals might dictate: a very tight race, narrowly favoring Mr. Obama.”

Stan, here: “we think [that polls showing Romney tied or ahead] are simply wrong.”

I grant you it’s a subtle difference so “jive” might have been too strong a word, but nevertheless I think our boy Nate wouldn’t completely concur with that assessment. Instead, I think he’d say that a poll showing Romney ahead–by, say, one or two in either VA, OH, or nationally–isn’t “wrong”, but rather may or may not reflect the underlying truth of what’s expected to happen next Tuesday. Of course, he’d say it in fourteen more paragraphs than that, with about 3,000 caveats thrown in, but that’s our loveable Nate.

Saying that polls showing Big R ahead are -wrong-, however, would be too absolute for Nate’s blood, and that’s where I take issue. Sure, if there’s a Purple Strategies poll that showed Romney up by 10 in OH, that might be due to one very quirky methodology worthy of the term “wrong”. But most of the polls favoring Romney, Rasmussen excepted, are showing the slimmest of leads and thus well within the concept that the numbers are strictly due to sampling error.

I would like nothing better than to see a fork stuck in the political career of my former Governor, but I’ll wait to make that pronouncement next Wednesday…assuming that it is settled by then.

jharp

“Nate, yesterday: “the results we’re now seeing are quite consistent with what the economic fundamentals might dictate: a very tight race, narrowly favoring Mr. Obama.”

Stan, here: “we think [that polls showing Romney tied or ahead] are simply wrong.”

I grant you it’s a subtle difference”

Not sure I agree there is any difference.

And I was referring to Nate giving some credibility to the link Stan put up on the importance of cell-phone polling in this election.
billy rubin

It’s subtle but not THAT subtle. There is in fact a difference between saying a) a race is tight and thus you will have some polls showing one guy in the lead, and others showing the other guy in the lead; or b) a race is tight and “polls showing X are wrong”. Version A is Nate Silver’s, and it’s meant to be a disinterested analysis of data; Version B is Stan Greenberg’s, and it’s meant to rally the troops. Yes, both of them have noted how sampling land lines versus cell phones ends up having an effect in poll results. But no, Nate would never say what Stan said–that a given poll was “wrong”. And, subtle though it may be, that’s a genuine difference.

Hair-splittingly, Billy

CooofNJ

Nate does in fact figure in cell phone vs. land line usage for the polls that he averages. He has all along in this election season. His forecast has Obama about 3 in 4 chance of winning vs. Romney as a 1 in 4. And, even with all the Nate Silver haters out there, it is just math. His model is either right or it is wrong. If it is wrong he will figure out what component is missing and add it in. He added the mix of cell phones vs. landlines a while ago.

http://ndgoon.blogspot.com Goon

This sounds like denial by the left, I think Obama going to get smoked in this election.

jharp

“I think Obama going to get smoked in this election.”

Any evidence to support your claim?

And your bunions acting up is not scientific evidence to predict an election outcome.
http://www.facebook.com/anthony.bailey.9619 Anthony Bailey

Guess again, Rombot?!! Romney is going down. LOL
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/CLSM4DFLCU7NHNTMHKQD4M4LPY Tim

You may wish Goon! However Greenberg and Democracy Corps are not the only people to have highlighted the discrepancy between polls that include a significant cellphone usage in their sample and those that don’t (Stu Rothenberg and the UVa Center for Policy Studies are just two others). As JamesInCA noted above all robopolls are irrelevant as they are prohibited from dialling cellphones, thus under-representing young and minority voters – just one very obvious example, if you’re a college student what access to a landline do you have? So all non-cellphone polls are ignoring college students, who the National Exit Poll estimated made up nearly 10% of the 2008 electorate, and who voted overwhelmingly Democratic; I accept the numbers might not be so large this year, but they’re still showing a Democratic majority in that subgroup.

http://twitter.com/TTHOOM Tim Terrell

I don’t see how this article is true. Wouldn’t the pollsters just call whatever numbers the participants give them? If the majority of people have cellphones, the pollesters just call the cellphones. Who says “we only call people with landlines in their homes” I don’t see that happeninge, unless they are only using contact lists from 1987.

JamesInCA

They don’t use “contact lists.” They dial phone numbers randomly, and are able to know based on telco databases whether a specific number dialed is a land line or a cell phone.

Regulations prohibit using automated devices to call cell phones (i.e. “robo-calls”), so pollsters relying entirely on automated systems are not calling cell phones. (Some pollsters use robo-polling for land lines and live interviewers for cell phones, but this is expensive for obvious reasons.)

So, yes, it’s very true that a lot of the polls you’re seeing in this election have *no* cell phone responses included.

Dei Gratia

This seems a reasonable assessment to me. We have several cell phones in my family and 2 landlines – we constantly get calls (mostly from the Romney Camp) on the landlines and have Never gotten any on the cell phones.
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=825984232 David Emerson Feit

This is interesting, and I dare say, encouraging. Without having the actual returns to look at yet, we don’t yet know whether the projections based on the samples being collected have suffered from the cell phone effect, and to what extent. Meanwhile the question that immediately comes to mind is whether demographic weighting is already adjusting for this. That is, if the reason for the differences in opinion across cell-phone usage cohorts is entirely explainable by the differences in the demographic composition of each group (e.g. younger respondents, who are more likely to support Obama, are also more likely to be cell-phone only), then making sure that younger voters are properly represented in each survey (either by sampling them at pre-set target rates or by post-stratification weighting) would entirely solve this problem. But if, say, younger voters with cell-phones-only support Obama at higher rates than those without cell phones, there’s likely to be an under-estimate of Obama’s support. Any evidence yet on this?
http://www.facebook.com/james.contarino James Contarino

i believe what your saying. obama will definatly win.also tim terell they are right as no calls come over my cell phone or anyone i know. only on our land lines
http://twitter.com/goldietaylor Goldie Taylor

Agree. I’ve been saying this for months.
http://twitter.com/NewKDramaAddict Belinda 벨린다

I don’t answer unknown numbers and I bet a lot of other people don’t either
http://profile.yahoo.com/HVXALWAYCPC5BTA7VNCNWQSFWM ThatClassyGirl21

Interesting…I get calls on my cell every week, twice a week, from polling places…not invalidating this article but yeah…maybe it’s because I’m in Ohio…
http://twitter.com/Tony_DAndrea Tony D’Andrea

Indeed, according to the CDC (yes, the CDC), Hispanics and African Americans are the most wireless segments in the country (nearly 40% and 30% of households nationwide). Yes, market researchers have a very hard time reaching them via telephone, but it is hard to believe that reputed agencies such as Gallup would provide biased results due to a methodological flaw.
http://twitter.com/AlexYKakala Alex Y Kakala

A week back i posted a tweet asking Democrats to team up with universities to conduct separate polls. I thought there was something wrong with the polls. Immediately after Romney won the first debate his poll numbers went up instantly at a very high rate. When Obama won the second and third debate his poll numbers continued to fall. Didn’t make sense to me.
VictorCraig

I agree. There are almost no cell phone users lists and I do not not of any African-Americans who have been contacted by any polling group.

I have been saying the same thing and I find it hard to believe that so many people have now decided to believe Romney’s lies. I know that George W. Bush was elected twice, but as that old saying goes,”Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me” and the American electorate is not that stupid.

Your theory explains the wide margin of votes for the president in the early voting process, most of whom are the younger members of the US.

Let us hope that you and I are correct.

YepThatTell

Amen to that!

kbcab

Maybe the polls expect too much , like maybe an honest election…
http://twitter.com/zwattsMDP Zack Watts

Obvious issue with this: How can the polls be missing tons of Obama voters when many of them still have +Democrat samples of anywhere from 5-9 points. Do you think that if more cell phones were called the “real” sample would be +10? +15? Of course if that’s actually the case then Obama will win the election easily. But it’s not. Either many of the polls are overstating the amount of democrats in the electorate, or not only has Obama somehow not lost any momentum from 2008, but every poll about party identification is completely wrong as well.
vicki grant

the polls are lying to the people
mpjt16

Who cares?????
fooooo

i like many of the people i know refuse to take part in the political surveys. We just don’t answer any calls from numbers we don’t recognize.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Walter-J-Evans/824400220 Walter J. Evans

I think you are right on point! I just read about this yesterday regarding another issue, so if the intended respondents can’t be reached, they cannot be included in the survey.
http://profile.yahoo.com/A22OXPNBXJX5C7M52IJIXHYXAM captaincaveman

One thing you learn about this country racism is still alive and well,I mean why not blame the first black president of this country for all that has taken place in the last four years.Here we had eight years of that dirt bags Bush,a war he started with the wrong country and every possible thing that could happen did happen with those scum bag Republicans/Tea party Dildos back in charge by putting Romney/Ryan in charge of this country yeah!! in that case why don’t we just let China run the country?And there are fools out here who thinks that will be better i mean think about this if you were a millionaire why in the world would you want to take on the burdens of the world for $400.000 a year are you kidding me!Either your that arrogant or that stupid in Romney’s case he is both and so is his wife trying to act like she knows what it is like to be and everyday soccer mom.And five sissy boys and not one served in the military including Romney,but he knows what the military has to deal with every day how is that if you have never been on the inside looking out!!
montanabill

Got to be some reason other than his lousy job as President, doesn’t it, Mr. Greenberg?

http://www.facebook.com/elisabeth.gordon1 Elisabeth Gordon

The fact that lying thieving Romney could be running neck and neck with President Obama validates my belief that Americans are the dumbest people on the planet.

montanabill

If you could validate the thieving part, you might be on to something. Otherwise, trying to convince people that Romney out does Obama on the lying spectrum is a pretty difficult job. Simply putting a man into the office who had less real world experience than the average guy on the street four years ago pretty much validated your belief though.

http://www.facebook.com/elisabeth.gordon1 Elisabeth Gordon

If your man Romney is elected (and it doesn’t look like he will be thank God), let’s talk in a couple of years when this country looks like a scene from Les Miserables…good luck with that and good day…

coliwabl

It’s difficult to understand why the country would want to return to the policies of Bush and Cheney or why it would choose to go the course of the dangerous Tea Party lunatics. Greenburg’s assessment seems to be right on the money.
morgan520

I knew it!! I am one of the ones who is cell phone only as are most of my family and friends – we are all voting Obama/Biden!
http://profile.yahoo.com/ETO6XHVOBOSSKO7KEGSOB5QNJA james

A pole is only a pole. Gallop is showing results different that most of the other poles. The reason for the different should be asked. In the end there is only 1 pole that counts and that is the one that is on Oct 6 2012. Poles are fun to look at but rember to vote. I rember reading about a president that did not win acording to a poles but turned out he did.
http://twitter.com/sycosucks Kim Jones

I still think the President will win but I do not think the issue is landline/cell phone users. The issue is the same in 2012 as it was for 2008. The pollsters are not including enough young, African american or Latino voters. These groups make the difference in alot of the swing states and overwhelmingly support Obama. Early voting is showing that young and African american voters are voting in high numbers something the media is ignoring.
solver63

I make calls to set appointments almost everyday, for mortgage protection insurance. About 85% of the calls I make are to CELL phones, go figure, new house, no landline. The only reason I still use one is that it is for office use; It sounds and looks more professional to have an “office line” and I need it for faxes too. I have NEVER been called on my cell to be polled by either camp, I have been called multiple times on my landline by Right leaning pollsters (you can tell by the “closed ended” questions) I thought it was due to the fact that I live in SC. It’s a RED state. I hope this article is right, I hope Willards lies and lack of policy and his PLEDGE signing, privatizing, entitlement killing ways catch up to him. I was the GM of a Chrysler-Jeep dealer and they still send me Emails – THEY are NOT moving ANY manufacturing to CHINA – They are opening up a third shift and adding OVER 1100 new positions AND JEEP hasn’t had this many orders since the Grand Cherokee surge in the ’90′s. MitTerd the traitor, “say ANYTHING” ads and speechs strike AGAIN. How can ANYONE with ANY brains think this CEO will do anything BUT destroy our country. The only true thing he’s said in 6 years is his name and he’s a VENTURE CAPITALIST.
http://profile.yahoo.com/RGOUPZ3JYNMPBVOHLZRCRVRD6Q ivory69690

its the koch or ckoe brosd. that are now buying the polls to number for them thjem and the dupper or dumper pac are thinking if thy can buy the polls (the ppl thjat take them ) that the ppl. see that and want to make thjem think their vote wont matter . and those who are voteing for the Pres. will not go vote . its more of the work of the GOP DING DONGS AND THE EVIL ANTI-CHRIST ROMNEY doing there work of lies . the whole evil bunch lie more then a RUG
http://twitter.com/STUGOLL STUART

Regardless of the polls, the President’s campaign has been a terrible disappointment. I am afraid the failure to get its message across will cost the President the election; and the country will suffer for it because Mitt Romney will destroy this country for a long, long time.
bstockinger

In the 2010 election this was certainly true in NV. The Harry Reid campaign kept saying they were going win while ALL of the polls said that Angle would win. Reid won by 5 percent. There are so many people in the Las Vegas area without land lines that any phone survey is always misleading.
http://www.facebook.com/al.ficcardi Al Ficcardi

MY LANDLINE IS CONNECTED TO A FAX MACHINE, SO I DO NOT ANSWER IT. MY WIFE AND TWO CHILDREN WHO ARE BOTH IN THIER TWENTIES AND MYSELF ONLY HAVE CELL PHONES FOR CALLS. LAND LINES ARE BECOMING EXTINCT, SORRY TO SAY. I ESTIMATE THAT THERE ARE 3 TIMES MORE CELL PHONE USERS THAN LAND LINE USERS. I AM REFERING TO PERSONAL PHONES. BUSINESSES STILL RELY ON LANDLINES THUS MAKING THIER USE SEEM HIGHER.
http://twitter.com/DaveSpeakinOut Colt

hey, it’s mister senile again! Retire please.
Fubom

The Republicans want to take us back in time, to a simpler, less confusing time, where women don’t have to make any decisions on their own. Where a poll tax or a civics test are required in order to vote. Where we have a navy the same size and composition as the one we had prior to 1917. And where everyone has a land line, and all the news you get comes in the form of print news or Faux news.

Beaulieu6

Fubom, The Republicans are the party of “NO” but on Tuesday November 6, 2012 the Democrats will regain Congress, and the Senates will remain Democrats as President Obama will be Re-elected!

http://profile.yahoo.com/BVKV3JLHUL5OETR5XJQ4XRGUY4 Tom

Typical pompous ass Jew.
http://www.facebook.com/michael.ross.7505468 Michael Ross

SNL already ridiculed the polls for this, and yet they are still standing by them.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Irene-Gibson/1081147295 Irene Gibson

Obama all the way for sure!
http://www.facebook.com/people/Irene-Gibson/1081147295 Irene Gibson

Obama all the way for sure

Beaulieu6

President Obama has been a true and strong leader in the past 4 years his record show that he can lead America forward toward a lasting prosperity as early 2015, he will continue to be a true and strong leader in the next 4 years 2013-2016, I stand with President Obama all the way to be our 45th President!

http://www.facebook.com/people/Irene-Gibson/1081147295 Irene Gibson

Obama all the way for sure……and Democratic House and Senate!

Beaulieu6

Irene, you are absolutely right on Tuesday November 6, 2012 will Re-elect President Obama give Congress back to Democrats and keep Senates Democrats, they will get the work done without the Republicans obstruction!

nurselaidoff

The major polls (i.e.- Gallop) already sample a large percentage of cellphones…………I am not sure about the smaller local polls…It would be interesting to find out.
onedonewong

I have to agree with over 20 million obama phones in the hands of the welfare queens pollsters can’t reach them since most are in Vegas or Atlantic city gambling or getting calls to deliver crack

Dmullins84

People who looks down on poor people worse than an animal without a home with their name calling should have their ass kicked until their nose bleeds. Everyone was not borne with a silver spoon in their mouth. Some people have unfortunate circumstancie’s that puts them in poverty, and needs a temporary helping hand. So, get off this shit about Obama phone’s and welfare queens. Talk like a reasonable American person or don’t talk at all.

onedonewong

Thak for da lesonn in ebonics. Your peeps wuld be prud of yours

Tom_D44

Especially those with the Obama phones. Good point.
burnsedwin31

And polls include only those that speak understandable english.

And polls include only those that Social Security is a gratuity and not a right earned by a life of savings and hard contributions to the System.

And those that can’t see that this election is for the retirement of their parents and prefer instead to enlarge the coffer of the rich.

And those that believe that prosperity means overmilking the cow to extenuation.
Beaulieu6

The Middle-Class 98% percent are the true and strong backbone of our economy but Governor Romney doesn’t understand the Middle-Class struggle has Governor Romney record as shown that he had fired workers to ship their jobs in China. Governor Romney cannot be trusted with our economy as his economic policy doesn’t add up mathematically, he cannot be trusted to be President!
burnsedwin31

Polls do not include those with heavy accents and not understandable english

Polls include those that believe that Social Security is a gratuity paid by the rich and not a right earned by hard work and a life of contributions to the Social Security.

And include those who fail to understand that by destroying the Social Security they are destroying the present of their Parents and their own future and prefer instead to donate for the coffers of the rich.

And those that believe that the best economic way is “over-milking the cows to extenuation”

Also who believe that deporting hard workers is a solution to the demographic problem of the Country.
http://www.facebook.com/schirmerdon Donald Schirmer

I have a cellphone connected to my Verizon service to my home along with FIOS,TV. and Computer. I also have a phone that is not connected. It is a Jitterbug phone. I have no use for these advanced phones and my son has all of them and more, but he still does not tune into what is really happening so he is for Romney and i am for Obama
irishtap

This is perfectly logical. I personally do not know more than one person that maintains a land line only lifestyle. He’s an excellent friend, married, loves his drink and gentlemen’s clubs and happens to be a staunch republican. Come to think of it, the pollsters should sample strip club audiences if they’re seeking republican family values leaning voters.
elw

I also think that people just do not answer the phone any more unless it is a number they know. I know when I see a number not connected to a name in my phone, it does not get answered. I figure if it is important they will leave me a message. So in my opinion, old sampling method do not work. I am over 60 and all of many of my friend have already gotten rid of the thier landline or are talking about it.
http://www.facebook.com/richard.baerlocher Richard Baerlocher

There was a survey that found that the majority of patrons of the adult clubs are leaning conservative. This seems to cloud the issue considering that the conservatives claim to be very religious! Does this mean that these conservative are in fact lying to their pastors, and to their wives? I know a few wives that would go into these strip clubs to check if their husbands were there, and drag them out by their ears!
http://profile.yahoo.com/L35W6RUYTP2HMW2GXPYMC377GM Conrad

VOTE !!! VOTE!!!! VOTE!!! OBAMA-BIDEN 2012 IT TAKES MORE THEN 44444!!!!!!!!
http://profile.yahoo.com/MT3DGXI6CT56MSJAYO3QLMJ3PY Nancy

i am hoping and praying that our president will b elected our country would b destroyed in no uncertain terms OLe romney would destroy our country in 1 big swoop and the sad thing is ole romney and the other repugnants dont care all they care about is money money and power over all of us tellng us what to do and when to do and not having a choice about anything and taking away all laws to benefit him and all of his rich cronies they r so desparate to get rid of our president they r willing to do anything or anything for this to happen they are all evil crooked and bald face liers lying everyday all day longi

Beaulieu6

Nancy, the first time I have heard President Obama speak in 2008 I was impressed and inspired by President Obama, in the past 4 years 2009-2012, his record show that he can lead America forward and in the right direction. During the 2008 Presidential Campaign President Obama promise that he would reformed health-care in which he kept his promise and in 2009 House Democrats passed the Affordable Care Act, that President Obama signed into law on March 23, 2010, in which will be fully implemented and fully taking effect on January 1, 2014.
I am very optimistic and confident that President Obama will be Re-elected on Tuesday November 6, 2012 as President Obama understand the struggle the Middle-Class 98% percent are going through, also during the 2008 campaign President Obama promise that he would cut taxes to the Middle-Class in which he did, he also cut taxes to small businesses the 97% percent.
President Obama inherited the worst economic crisis in American history he inherited the Bush-Cheney failed economic policy the same policy that Mitt Romney want to take us, but America cannot afford to go back and America would not go backward, together will go forward with President Obama and Re-elect him in which he will lead America toward a lasting prosperity by early 2015!

http://www.facebook.com/jgardner2348 Jo Ann Gardner

Another segment of loyal Obama’s backers that have been grossly underestimated are the ones that simply refuse to participate in any type of poll. Just ask your friends and neighbors if they have participated in a poll and the vast majority will tell you emphatically NO!
http://www.facebook.com/people/Kenneth-Heffley/100002250740914 Kenneth Heffley

I disagree the polls are republican run and they are as you said totaly wrong. These people will learn that money can’t buy this election because the American people will not let them. It is a conspiracy republican conspiracy.
Beaulieu6

I’m optimistic and confident that President Obama will be Re-elected as he understand the Middle-Class 98% percent he understand our struggle, he always will stand and fight for us the Middle-Class I have great confidence in President Obama, his economic policy is the best policy for America.
Together let’s stand with President Obama to Re-elect him our 45th President together we go “FORWARD” with President Obama toward a lasting prosperity, by early 2015!
http://www.facebook.com/gayle.montgomery Gayle Montgomery

Hey, you guys have a pop up add that comes up when you read asking if you support Elizabeth Warren. The only box it allows you to click is No. That’s baloney sauce. Severe material misrepresentation by somebody.
Beaulieu6

President Obama will be Re-elected on Tuesday November 6, 2012 to lead America “FORWARD” toward a lasting prosperity by January 1, 2015!
ralphkr

A cold chill runs up my spine every time I see an article claiming that Obama has this election in the bag. These articles shall just encourage those supporting Obama to stay home “after all, he has it in the bag so I don’t have to make a special effort to vote” and egg on the followers of Fascism to be sure and get out the vote for Ryan & Romney. Doesn’t anyone else remember when Dewey had the presidency in the bag???
Beaulieu6

Four years ago President Obama inherited the worst economic crisis in American history leading America into the longest recession from 2007 through 2009, as President Obama reached to House Republicans in which gave him the cold shoulder by obstructing the President on many progress in leading our econonomy forward, President Obama has worked hard in the past 4 years his record as shown that he can lead America forward, in 2009 House Democrats passed the Affordable Care Act that President Obama signed into law on March 23, 2010, that will be fully taking effect and be fully implemented on January 1, 2014.
We cannot trust Governor Romney he as not been honest with the American people he is spreading lies after lies as both Romney-Ryan economic policy doesn’t add up mathematically, their economic policy will lead America backward in the wrong direction, America we cannot afford Romney-Ryan in the White House. Both Romney-Ryan doesn’t care about us the Middle-Class 98% percent they don’t even care about the poor below poverty line, their plan is to cut taxes to the whealthiest 2% percent, they plan on doing that on our back the Middle-Class 98% percent and on the back of the poor.
Under President Obama we’ve seen 31 straight months of job growth adding 5.2 million private sector jobs, including nearly 500,00 manufacturing jobs the most growth since 1997.
President has a better path in wich in the next 4 years 2013-2016 President Obama will lead America forward he will lead America toward a lasting prosperity by early January 1, 2015, together let’s stand with President Obama and Re-elect him on Tuesday November 6, 2012 as togeher we go forward!
http://profile.yahoo.com/JMT6C3LHLJDD4RX4NB4KY5ICAE gargray

The Repubs think they are right, their minds are not normal they think they are winning. People who are smart won’t vote for them.

Beaulieu6

gargray, I’m a long time Democrat who stood with President Obama in 2008 and I’m standing with President Obama in 2012 President Obama is a true and strong leader, he saved the auto industry, he will continue to lead America forward toward a lasting prosperity by early January 2015!

macionmhuinn

It may be more complicated than that. We have come to expect that polls are reasonably accurate most of the time. Could it be that this particular general election is more fluid than most because of the deepening crises in which it is playing out. If we are not yet experiencing a historic realignment of forces, could that adjustment be on the near horizon? One can’t know, of course, but one senses a growing rift between the parties and the people?
Beaulieu6

Next Tuesday November 6, 2012 we will give back Congress to Democrats keep the Senates Democrats and we will Re-elect President Obama and Vice-President Biden, both are true and strong leader who believe in us the Middle-Class 98% percent both will lead America forward toward a lasting prosperity by early January 2015, together will go forward and give President Obama and Vice-President Biden 4 more years of true and strong leadership!
Beaulieu6

President Obama= “FORWARD”
Governor Romney=”BACKWARD”
America together we go “FORWARD” and Re-elect President Obama
Beaulieu6

HERE ARE WHY WE WILL RE-ELECT PRESIDENT OBAMA:
1. President Obama is a true and strong leader with a true and strong leadership who can and will lead America forward toward a lasting prosperity by early January 1, 2015.
2. President Obama saved the auto industry General Motor, Ford, and Chrysler.
3. A permanent tax cut for the Middle-Class 98% percent.
4. President Obama will lead America toward energy independent by early January 1, 2020.
5. Insourcing American jobs back to America with product stamp “made in America by the American workers.
6. Investing in our infrastructure repairing our crumbling road, bridges, Higway, and school.
7. A stronger Middle-Class
8. Lifting the poor below poverty line in moving them into the Middle-Class 98% in giving them work.
9. Investing in education and more
Beaulieu6

Only President Obama and Democrats understand us the Middle-Class 98% percent they understand our struggles that we faced in the past 4 years 2009-2012, they stood with us they fought for us and in the next 4 years 2013-2016 they will continue standing with us, and fighting for us we simply cannot afford a Romney-Ryan Administration, both Romney-Ryan cannot be trusted with our economy as their economic policy do not add up!
Let’s all stand with President Obama and Re-elect him for a second term on Tuesday November 6, 2012 and let’s give Congress back to Democrats and keep the Senates Democrats “FORWARD”!
Beaulieu6

Only a few days left before election day has Governor Romney keep spreading lies on the campaign trail and through nasty adds we cannot afford in going back, to the same Bush-Cheney failed economic policy that has led America into the worst economic crisis in American history, Governor Romney plan is to take us back, America we stand together with President Obama as he is a true and strong leader with a true and strong leadership, in leading America toward a lasting prosperity by early 2015, together we go forward and Re-elect President Obama on Tuesday November 6, 2012 “FORWARD”!
http://twitter.com/withsimplelogic a.e. ventura

Bottom line; none of that sh&t matters. The people deserve another four years of a forward thinker with an ACTUAL plan, not four years of a compulsive liar, corporate stooge and 1%er out of touch with the true America. Obama wins, or we all lose. TRUST ME.
Beaulieu6

Together we go forward with Pressident Obama and Re-elect him this Tuesday November 6, 2012 “FORWARD”!
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_KOPKDFAUQPIIRAFI3HEXNMSHLQ Ed

Wouldn’t surprise me if a lot of those “land lines” were corporate headquarters.
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000646644366 Richard Beaulieu

America we stand together we go forward together and this Tuesday November 6, 2012 we will Re-elect President Obama and together we will finish the work we began in 2008, we’ve made great progress together and more is on the way, I’m optimistic and confident that together we will reach a lasting prosperity by early 2015 “FORWARD”!
Beaulieu6

All the Republicans have done in the past 4 years is obstructed President Obama progress and now they are trying to steal the election from President Obama, the same way they did in 2000 and 2004 their Nominee Governor Romney is spreading lies on the campaign trail, and with nasty and negative adds. President Obama has as a better economic plan in which will lead America forward toward a lasting prosperity by early 2015, together we go forward and Re-elect President Obama this Tuesday November 6, 2012, and give back congress to Democrats and keep the Senates Democrats so they can work together with President Obama and get the job done without any obstruction from the Republicans!
Beaulieu6

LET’S FIRED HOUSE REPUBLICANS AND HIRED HOUSE DEMOCRATS AND RE-ELECT PRESIDENT OBAMA THIS TUESDAY NOVEMBER 6, 2012, TO WORK TOGETHER IN MOVING AMERICA FORWARD TOWARD A LASTING PROSPERITY BY THURSDAY JANUARY 1, 2015, WE SIMPLY CANNOT AFFORD TO GO BACKWARD WITH GOVERNOR ROMNEY, MAKE SURE THAT THE REPUBLICANS DOESN’T STEAL THIS ELECTION, JUST LIKE GEORGE W. BUSH DID IN 2000 AGAINGT AL GORE AND IN 2004 AGAINST SENATOR JOHN KERRY!
PRESIDENT OBAMA BELIEVE IN THE MIDDLE-CLASS 98% HE AS FOUGHT FOR THE MIDDLE-CLASS 98% IN THE PAST 4 YEARS, HE STOOD WITH US THE MIDDLE-CLASS 2008-2012 AND HE WILL STAND WITH US THE MIDDLE-CLASS 98%, FOR THE NEXT 4 YEARS 2013-2016!
THE ROMNEY-RYAN PLAN IS TO CUT $5 TRILLION TAX-CUT FOR THE WHEALTHIEST 2%, BY RAISING TAXES FOR THE MIDDLE-CLASS 98% PERCENT, ROMNEY-RYAN AND THE REPUBLICANS DOESN’T CARE ABOUT THE MIDDLE-CLASS 98% PERCENT, THEY DON’T EVEN CARE ABOUT THE POOR BELOW POVERTY LINE!
AMERICA THE CHOICE IS CLEAR LET’S GO FORWARD AND RE-ELECT PRESIDENT OBAMA THIS TUESDAY NOVEMBER 6, 2012!
VOTE FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA 11/6/2012 ”YES WE CAN AND YES PRESIDENT OBAMA WILL WILL THIS ELECTION!
Beaulieu6

Has a factory worker who’s worked physically hard with my colleagues at the Florida Coca-cola Bottling Company for 30 years 1976-06 in which have retired with great pride and dignity in 2006, I stand with the Middle-Class 98% percent and I stand with President Obama in Re-electing him this Tuesday November 6, 2012, I’m optimistic and confident that President Obama will be Re-elected our 45th President!
“YES WE CAN & YES PRESIDENT OBAMA WILL BE RE-ELECTED AND DEMOCRATS WILL REGAIN POWER IN 2013!
Beaulieu6

A True and Strong leadership Re-elect President Obama for a second term 2013-2016 “YES WE CAN AND YES HE WILL WIN THE GENERAL ELECTION!
Beaulieu6

We came to far to turn back now together we have to go forward stand with President Obama and Re-elect him this Tuesday November 6, 2012, I have look at both economic plan the one Governor Romney offer and the one President Obama offer, and I came to a conclusion and concluded that President Obama has a better plan to move America forward, not only we have to Re-elect President Obama we have to gave him a Congress that will work with him we have to fired House Republicans and hired House Democrats, and keep the Senates Democrats!
President Obama got our troops out of Iraq and he is getting our troops out of Afgahanistan, he signed the Affordable Care Act on March 23, 2010, he got Bin Laden, he saved the auto industry he cut taxes to the Middle-Class 98% percent, he also cut taxes to small bussinesses the 97% percent!
America let’s stand together and Re-elect President Obama who is a true and strong leader with a true and strong leadership that can and will lead America forward toward a lasting prosperity by early January 2015!
On Tuesday November 6, 2012 Vote for President Obama for 4 more years of true and strong leadership!
Beaulieu6

Let’s stand together and Re-elect President Obama on Tuesday November 6, 2012 let’s go “FORWARD” VOTE OBAMA-BIDEN!
113121

Well, now we know!

Sorry, Wrong Numbers: Why The Polls Don’t See Obama’s Winning Margin

partners

Our Latest Book