Monday, March 30, 2015

Sorry, Wrong Numbers: Why The Polls Don’t See Obama’s Winning Margin

Sorry, Wrong Numbers: Why The Polls Don’t See Obama’s Winning Margin

I’ve seen tracking polls saying that Mitt Romney is either tied or leading in the presidential race, but we think that they are simply wrong. It’s not a conspiracy theory; those other polls are just simply missing a critical segment of President Obama’s coalition: cellphone users. Failing to survey those who don’t have landlines — who tend to support the president by a significant margin —  those polls are blind to the fact that Obama is on track to win re-election on November 6. For our complete Democracy Corps memo on the importance of cellphone polling in this election — with graphs — please click here.