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Wednesday, October 26, 2016

E.J. Dionne: How Fragile Is Obama's Lead?

E.J. Dionne warns that a good six months have not guaranteed President Obama’s re-election, in his column, “Obama Hasn’t Won It Yet:”

If the election were held right now, President Obama would likely win by about the same margin that propelled him into office in 2008. But how fragile are his current advantages?

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Copyright 2012 The National Memo
  • Baron Cormac

    Right now, the Republican candidates are trying to outdo each other in playing to a segment of their party’s base – the Social Conservatives (i.e. Evangelical Christians) and discounting anyone else who may be a member of the party. In doing so, they are alienating more and more of the independents whom they MUST have if they intend to win the Presidency back. At this rate, it ain’t gonna happen. President Obama has been playing to the Democratic Base, the Independents and the Republicans who feel left out by this year’s primary now that the blustering buffoons have driven out all the non-rabid Right Wingers except for Governor Romney.
    Now we have talk of a brokered convention, too. What do they expect? That Sarah Palin will walk in and have the Nomination handed to her? Ain’t gonna happen either. The Republican Party recognizes the damage she did four years ago, and are still suffering from it on a national level. Add to that, the candidates she pushed for and won are now facing stiffer battles than before from people who realize they were duped by her and her tea-party allies.
    No, I have a feeling that this year, Speaker Boehner will probably win reelection in his district, but may have to step down as Speaker for one of two reasons – if the Republicans keep their majority (which at this point is looking doubtful) Paul Ryan will lead a tea-party revolution to unseat him, or if the Republicans lose their majority, he would have to hand over the gavel to whoever the Democrats manage to come up with (oh, Lord, please NOT Nancy Pelosi again!). On the Senate side, hopefully enough people realize that the Senate Republicans have been too busy trying to thwart every legislative effort that has been favored by President Obama in their goal to keep him a one-term President, that they could find themselves not capable of sustaining a fillibuster, especially as their favorite Democrat(?) – Joe (is there a press conference I can co-opt?) Lieberman is retiring.
    Now all we need is Justice Scalia to be declared mentally incompetent and removed from the Bench, and President Obama can nominate a replacement for him. Add to that Justice Ginsberg will feel safe in retiring, and we will have a Court that may revisit Citizens United.