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Saturday, October 22, 2016

A year after the Republican National Committee released its GOP “autopsy,” the Growth and Opportunity Project (which encouraged the party to appeal more to minorities), data released by Gallup shows that the party is still getting whiter.

Using yearly aggregates of its own poll data since 1995, Gallup finds that over the past five years, party partisanship has increasingly reflected racial polarization, with more whites leaning to the right and a majority of minority voters – defined as blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and “all other races combined” — continuing to lean left.

Though party preferences have long reflected racial divides – Gallup’s trend lines, for example, show elevated racial polarization immediately after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks – this most recent trend is the first time Gallup reports a “61-point racial and ethnic gap in party preferences,” the largest gap measured in the past 20 years. Gallup also notes that prior to 2008, the racial gap reached only as high as 55 percentage points – in 1997 and again in 2000 – but since 2008, racial gaps have reached that level or higher every year.

Minority voters’ party alignment remains a consistent trend. Between 1995 and 2013, 69 percent of minority voters, on average, have either aligned with the Democratic Party or reported leaning left; only 21 percent, on average, aligned with the Republican Party or reported leaning right.

While the Democratic Party boasts majority support from non-white voters, the GOP has moved in the other direction. On average, 49 percent of whites have aligned with the Republican Party or leaned right in the past 18 years, unlike the majority of minority voters who report the same about their relationship to the Democratic Party. Additionally, 42 percent of white voters, on average, align with the Democratic Party or lean left.

Under President Barack Obama, a larger percentage of white voters – 50.3 percent – align with the GOP or lean right, the largest number to do so since 1995, when Bill Clinton was in office.

There could be various explanations for white voters’ shift to the right in recent years — Gallup does not have evidence that the president’s race could be a reason, but does not rule out the possibility, either — but understanding why minority voters continue to stick to the left is a bit easier. Minority voters, on average, face a wider range of social and economic problems on which Democrats often focus.

Unlike the solid Democratic base, the Republican base of white voters is not overwhelmingly aligned with the Republican Party. Thus, even as the GOP enjoys a 10-point advantage among white voters, the Democratic Party remains the more popular party, nationally.

As Gallup concludes, the GOP would need to secure a stronger advantage among white voters or appeal to a greater percentage of minority voters in order to meet the amount of support shared by Democrats.

Chart via Gallup

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Copyright 2014 The National Memo
  • Stuart

    Democrats more popular nationally? Yeah, so what? How does that help us when Republicans take over the Senate this fall?

    OK, Republicans are corrupt and inhumane and have rigged the system. Yeah, so what? What are you going to do about it?

    • Independent1

      It’s unfortunate that this year’s election is really stacked against the Democrats with so many seats up for grabs that are in fairly solid red states. But in any case, irregardless of how the elections turn out, there wasn’t a big chance that the quagmire in Congress was going to change much over the next couple years regardless with how the election would likely turn out.

      There hasn’t been much chance that the Dems would gain enough seats in the House this election to take a majority, so even if the Dems were to win the Senate, unless they decided to reform the filibuster rule, the Senate was going to end up making very little progress with getting legislation passed over the next two years. The GOP would simply continue to use the filibuster rule to block virtually any progress the Dems wanted to make in spurring the economy or in providing help to less fortunate Americans.

      Should the GOP win both houses, which is a possibility, that may actually be a better result than the two houses being split again which would most likely continue to send mix messages going into the 2016 elections. Why? because with the two houses split, a good deal of the toxic legislation that is passed in the House never really gets aired fully to the public. It may get listed somewhere in the back pages of newspapers and fleeting comments in the broadcast media, but really not aired fully; so the GOP just keeps playing up fake scandals and made up fantasies in an effort to make the Dems look bad.

      Whereas, if the GOP gains control of both houses, without sufficient control of the Senate to override an Obama veto, toxic legislation they pass which is detrimental to key blocks of the voting population, e.g., like cutting SS benefits and gutting Medicare for the elderly; cutting Medicaid subsidies and other programs for the poor, etc. could easily become center stage and could very well then get front page coverage in papers and broadcast media outlets across the country; as the GOP Congress goes head to head with Obama in trying to get their toxic legislation signed by him. If that’s the case, hopefully seniors and other middleclass voting blocks would start to wake up to just how detrimental the GOP has become to their best interests, so that the 2016 election could well end up being a watershed, ushering out even the GOP majority in the House and returning the Dems to a filibuster proof majority in the Senate with a Dem elected as President.

      • edwardw69

        I agree completely. Other than taking the House and 60 seats in the Senate, there is no way for the Democrats to eliminate the gridlock. So, let the Republicans take the Senate (they will never get the 67 votes necessary to override a veto) and let’s see what those “Jobs Bills” from the House actually look like.

      • RobertCHastings

        As this is (like 2010) another mid-term election, the variety in which so many Democrats stay home because a president is not being elected, the most important thing Democrats can do, starting NOW, is get people registered and make sure by any means possible that they vote in numbers like they did during the 2008 election. If the Democratic Party treats this like a mid-term election, we are all screwed. However, I believe that pundits and conservatives are counting on this being nothing more than just another mid-term. This country deserves better, and Obama deserves better.

    • Aanna1123

      Well Stuart, most democrats have finally realized that by sitting on their asses at midterms, THEY are the ones who elected republicans. Are you going to bellyache about it or are you going to vote?

    • RobertCHastings

      The BIG thing that will occur if the Republicans manage to gain control of BOTH houses of Congress will be the likely impeachment of President Obama. As with the impeachment of Clinton, however, a lot of the Republicans’ dirty laundry was aired (remember the debacle of the Gingrich ethics issues and the sordid history of the person who was to replace him, as well as the illegitimate son of Henry Hyde). Issa is just itching for the chance, as are many of his conservative associates in the House.

      • Independent1

        Robert, I would hope that if the GOP tries such a stunt that a widely publicized trial by the Senate would actually work against them, demonstrating how assinine their accusations of Obama really are. I was surprised to learn that despite the crook that Nixon actually proved to be, that the Senate did not vote to impeach him.

        Here’s what the wikipedia says about the requirements for impeachment:

        In writing Article II, Section Four, George Mason had favored impeachment for maladministration” (incompetence), but James Madison, who favored impeachment only for criminal behavior, carried the issue.[4] Hence, cases of impeachment may be undertaken only for “treason, bribery and other high crimes and misdemeanors.”

        Should the GOP House undertake impeachment proceedings (if they infact gain filibuster free control of the senate) I would hope that even a lot of Republican Senators would realize how totally outrageous impeachment accusations of Obama are; they’re clearly nothing but political posturing.

        • Sand_Cat

          The House does the impeaching, the Senate the trying. The House hasn’t acted so far because they know they can’t get a conviction in the Senate.
          The Senate never had the chance to vote on Nixon; I don’t remember offhand if the house actually voted to impeach, or they were preparing to do so, and it was considered a foregone conclusion.

          • Independent1

            Yeah! They’ve been considering trying a vote on impeachment even though they know with the way the Senate is aligned now it would be a wasted effort, but so has been 50 plus votes ot repeal Obamacare so I wouldn’t put it past them to do a symbolic vote before November. And Robert was suggesting they may try to impeach Obama if they were to win control of both houses in November.

            The House did pass one article of impeachment on Nixon and it was working on 2 more when he resigned. See this from wikipedia:

            In May 1974, the House Judiciary Committee began formal impeachment hearings against Nixon. On July 27 of that year, the first article of impeachment against the president was passed. Two more articles, for abuse of power and contempt of Congress, were approved on July 29 and 30. On August 5, Nixon complied with a U.S. Supreme Court ruling requiring that he provide transcripts of the missing tapes and the new evidence clearly implicated him in a cover up of the Watergate break-in. On August 8, Nixon announced his resignation, becoming the first president in U.S. history to voluntarily leave office.

        • RobertCHastings

          Political posturing is nothing new to either the new Republican Party or the Tea Party, suckling twins of neoliberalism.

          • Paul Bass

            “suckling twins of neoconservatism”, but thanks for the comment!

  • Independent1

    I’ve mentioned this a few times in previous posts, but I’ll bring it up again here: I view the numbers published by Gallup with a jaundiced eye – I think Gallup is fudging the numbers a bit. I’m not sure any of their numbers are truly accurate (which I find typical for right-wing biased polling organizations such as Gallup); but I’m especially suspicious of their numbers for 2009-2013 time period.

    I think the bias away from the GOP may be greater than Gallup is admitting, especially among non-whites. Consider this, Reuters estimated that for the 2012 election, Obama garnered 66% of the Hispanic vote and 80% of the black vote while some polling organizations claim Obama garnered at least 70% of the Hispanic vote. To me, this makes Gallup’s numbers for the percent of Non-Whites leaning Democratic being 68.4% for 2009-2013 a bit on the low side. If, in fact, Obama garnered 66 plus percent of the Hispanic and 80% of the black vote, those two combined would have to represent a number quite a bit over 70%: not 68.4%. Even Asians voted over 70% for Obama in 2012 – at 73%

    • pablosemenov321

      My Uncle Jacob got a year 2013 Audi TT RS
      Coupe by working part time online. imp source C­a­s­h­F­i­g­.­ℂ­o­m

      • Duckbudder

        Your uncle jacob is an asshole, who owes me money. Tell him he has 24 hours to pay up, or I’m gonna’ come take his goddamned Audi.

    • Dominick Vila

      These are the same guys that predicted a Romney landslide, and who were busy booking ballrooms to celebrate the resurgence of the Republican party. I am not mean, I hope they got a refund…

      • Independent1

        Thanks for the confirmation! I thought I remembered that it was Gallup that had predicted a Romney landslide. I’m not sure why anyone puts any credibility into the numbers Gallup publishes, e.g., the recent storyline that Obama’s favorability rating had declined to around 41%, when more credible polls such as Rasmussen were still showing his favorability around 49-50%.
        Gallup is clearly nothing more than another propaganda arm of the GOP just like Faux News in using poll numbers to try and sway public opinion about Obama and the Dems

    • elw

      I agree. Not only that but the movement away from the GOP is much more complicated then skin color. As whole their policies affect women of all races and people middle and lower income levels in a negative way. They have been losing membership steadily for years and I only see that continuing unless they make major changes in at a policy level and stop voting in radical Conservatives as their candidates. And we both know that is unlikely to happen.

  • paulyz

    Once again, the Democrat Party try to make this a race issue. Because of the rotten economy under Obama & mostly Liberal Democrat policies for decades, there are more Federal Government dependent people that vote for the party that “promises” to give them stuff. Well the stuff is running out and the entire Country is suffering. Excessive regulations & corporate taxes cause many businesses, (and jobs) to head overseas. Indeed, even N.Y. is offering tax breaks for 10 years to businesses that relocate there, essentially admitting Conservative principles of free enterprise is what is good for the Country and ALL people. Race baiting for votes to remain in poverty is the Democrat game.

    • Independent1

      You’re comments are so assinine and devoid of reality that aside from this you don’t deserve any further response!!!

    • raginyank

      You are wrong on so many levels; it would benefit you to find some other GOP lies to repeat, because the ones you are using have been discredited/dis proven time and time again.

    • Stuart

      The stuff isn’t running out. It was stolen from the middle class. If corporations get welfare, the rest of us should get welfare, too. Oh, and do the principles of free enterprise include the freedom to discriminate?

      • BillP

        Everyone has to ignore paulyz’s daily bs comments. He writes these ridiculous statements then disappears because he never has any proof to back up his nonsense. Don’t feed the trolls.

        • Duckbudder

          Most sites ban the trolls, but not NM. I wonder why that is?

    • Sand_Cat

      And once again, you make it a non-issue, idiot.

  • RobertCHastings

    No wonder the conservative movement supports an agenda that attacks the use of birth control and abortion. They need more white voters in the future to carry the banner of white entitlement.

  • Dominick Vila

    The ethnic makeup of the Republican party is consistent with their policy proposals and their fear of social and cultural change that has been taking place in our country during the last half century.

    Their opposition to Barack Obama has more to do with the progress that African Americans are making in the USA, their increasing influence and intellect, than the policies and actions of President Obama. Many of them do not oppose President Obama’s performance, they oppose what he represents to them.
    Many white Americans feel threatened by the rise of minorities to positions of influence, by their ability to get a good education and get ahead, and by the prominent positions that so many minorities hold. They hate Affirmative Action because they are convince that it is the tool that allowed so many minorities to prosper and narrow the socio-economic inequality that prevailed until the 1960s, and they definitely hate seeing a black man in the Oval Office for other than serving lemonade to white guests.
    They might as well accept the reality of the changes that are taking place, not only in the USA but worldwide, and learn to live with it, or they are going to need more than psychiatrists to help them deal with their paranoia, intolerance, and phobias.

    • MVH1

      I agree with you completely but would add, what the article also did not address, is the Republicans’ apparent determination to lose the votes of informed women who are outraged at their determination to take away all sorts of rights that were hard won and to not pay us the same wages for the same job. Older women were used to being “put in their place” and over-powered by the decisions of men but that’s changing. It never made sense to me forty years ago when my boss gave more work to the men reporters because they had families to support even though there were a number of single mothers who didn’t get child support and had children. It was idiotic then and is idiotic now but it was a mindset that was impossible to overcome. Women dutifully took second place. Anyone who has to work is becoming more informed on all topics affecting their economic livelihood. I was a Republican for more than 40 years but can’t imagine ever casting another vote for any of them, no matter how exceptional they may be in that vast pool of fossils. You take one and you have to take the rest. No thank you, ever again.

      • Independent1

        I was an independent for about 40 years who voted for Eisenhower, Ford and Bush Sr. I disliked Reagan intensely, but hoped that he was just a GOP bump in the road. However, since Gingrich was in office and conservatives started their 24/7 hate rheoric via the airwaves with Limbaugh and other right-wing wackos, my voting for Republicans has ended. I’d like once again to have a real choice during elections, but knowing that despite how qualified a GOP candidate might be, he or she would ended up towing the party line like all the other GOP sheeple candidates do – it’s going to take some doing for me to go back to being a true independent – dispite how badly I’d like to have that chance.

        • MVH1

          I know. You know what they call Independents, right leaning Republican voters who call themselves Independents. Then recently I ran across a well-informed person’s article who said “Not true.” Independents really exist and they like to vote for whom they choose instead of towing a party line. I can’t seen in my lifetime voting for the goppers again, until all the old cretins are out — being an old cretin myself — and I hope I live long enough to see them all gone and still have my mind. 🙂

        • Dominick Vila

          What do you think of the latest argument to stop covering the cost of contraceptives in company-paid insurance policies? Some folks are arguing that if employers are forced to pay for contraceptives, they will have no choice but to pay for abortions as well.
          A part that is missing from this latest attempt to deny freedom of choice to half of our population is that while it is true that employers sign the paychecks of their workers, they simply pass their labor costs to consumers. We, the people, are the ones that will pay for livable wages, and most of us don’t mind it. Needless to say, the basis for the argument is to find a way to deny women – and their husbands – the right to plan and make a choice. This issue is based solely on religious convictions and has absolutely nothing to do with cost incurred by employers or protecting life even before conception.

          • Independent1

            I believe as you pointed out at the end of your post, that companies which are trying to deny covering contraceptives are doing so based on nothing more than misguided religious grounds; especially considering that the monthly cost of contraceptives is a fraction of what most prescription drugs cost, modifying an insurance plan to not cover them would have negligible if any affect on the premium being charged for the policy. So the notion that companies are actually “paying” for contraceptives, when contraceptives are just one of hundreds of covered medications, is nothing but nonsense and is a clear smokescreen to cover the truth.
            Many of the “religious problems” we’re experiencing today come from mainstream religions whose misguided beliefs are continuing to be based on the Old Testament, just as were the misguided beliefs of the pharisee’s of Jesus’ time – pharisees who failed to accept that God had moved on from the edicts he made to their ancestors in the Old Testament. A testament which God tells us through the author of Hebrews was obsoleted and should have long since faded away (Hebrews 8:13).
            But which many mainstream religions of today insist on trying to follow just as the pharisees mistakenly followed what they were told by Moses; The Pharisees refused to accept the new message that Jesus brought them, while today’s misguided religions are not clearly understanding all that Jesus tried to teach them and are therefore failing to understand that their beliefs, which are leading the earth to over population and possible ultimate destruction are, in fatt, contrary to what God really wants. The last thing God would want to see is earth turned into a polluted mess because man overpopulated it; which is exactly where it is headed if these misguided mainstream religions don’t wake up.

  • lantanalenoxx

    Republicans are the White Citizens’ Councils circa 2014.

  • elw

    I am not surprised by the Gallup poll. But the popularity loss of the GOP is much deeper and more complicated than the color of peoples skin. Take skin color out of the mix and you still find that the GOP is losing women and other demographic groups that cross racial lines. You cannot keep voters when your policies hurt them. This Country has long rejected extremism, and the GOP has become the Party of extremists and less and less unafraid of being open about it. Things will get even worse for the GOP as generation X starts taking their voting responsibilities more seriously, after all most of them have grow up in a world where their classmates, fellow worker were a mixture of people from all backgrounds, to them it is normal and the way it should be.

  • [email protected]

    The Republican Party is a combination of the KKK and the John Birch Society based largely on the fear and hatred of non whites whom they believe are taking America away from the rightful owners of this country. The Republican’s slogan for the last election was “TAKE BACK AMERICA.: What could be clearer than that slogan? Does anyone think that the Republicans would ever agree to Immigration reform to permit a pathway to citizenship ?

  • [email protected]

    I would like to share an encounter I had with the Tea Party Demonstrators in Florida this winter. They were demonstrating against Obamacare and I was talking to them and I said that the next President of the U.S. was going to be Hillary Clinton. I did not even say that I supported her for President. They started shouting “Communist, Communist…” Then I said that I did not support the so-called Tea Party, and one of the demonstrators asked me, “aren’t you white” which I am, but I was surprised that was the ticket to being a member of their organization.

    • MVH1

      You realize they carry signs calling anyone not them “morans”, right? I just love that. It always makes me laugh. What you encountered was the goppers’ success at gutting public education. It’s so much easier to lead the dimwitted and unwilling to change. 🙂

  • howa4x

    How about the fact that Obama is Black? I know that has caused a lot of whites to shift toward the republicans

  • [email protected]

    I am an older white male and most of my old white friends seem to hate anyone who is not like them and resent the changes taking place in America and seem to believe that America was much greater when the whites controlled America. Hispanics bad. Blacks bad. Muslims very bad. Gays very bad. Woman having power and earning more than men, bad. Non-Christians bad.