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Thursday, August 24, 2017

Two new polls indicate that Hillary Clinton regained the advantage against Donald Trump in the aftermath of their first debate — which the Democratic presidential nominee was widely seen as having won.

A new CNN/ORC poll released on October 3 showed a five-point lead for Clinton over Trump among likely voters, with Clinton at 47 percent, Trump at 42 percent, Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at seven percent, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein at two percent. The same poll suggested that voters see Clinton as the superior candidate in temperament and qualifications — and that her supporters have grown more enthusiastic about her candidacy in the wake of the debate while enthusiasm for Trump has waned.

The details of the CNN/ORC poll showed Clinton improving her scores significantly among men, independents, and non-college educated white voters.

In the first CBS News poll since the debate, also released on October 3, Clinton notched a four-point lead over Trump among likely voters, with 45 percent supporting the Democrat and 41 percent supporting the Republican. The CBS survey also showed Johnson with eight percent and Stein with three percent — all results that are roughly consistent with the CNN/ORC findings. A pre-debate CBS poll had showed Clinton and Trump tied at 42 percent each in a four-way race.

Clinton’s current lead mirrors the final tally of the 2012 presidential race, which Barack Obama won by four points over Mitt Romney in the popular vote. Johnson took just under one percent in that race, while Stein garnered just over one-third of one percent.

The Reuters-Ipsos tracking poll, which relies on a larger online sample of 15,000 voters, has showed a similar consistent lead for Clinton following the first debate. Broken down by state, that poll indicated a narrowing of the race in certain battlegroud states, including Florida and Ohio, where Trump edged closer to Clinton; in other states, including Maine, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Clinton expanded her lead. Overall, the Reuters-Ipsos analysis found Clinton now ahead in probable Electoral College votes by 246 to 180 — with a predicted 88 percent chance that she would accumulate the 270 votes required to win the election.

IMAGE: Republican nominee Donald Trump speaks as Democrat Hillary Clinton looks on during their first presidential debate on September 26, 2016. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson