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Saturday, October 1, 2016

As part of a wide effort to encourage early voting in the swing states, Barack Obama on Thursday became the first sitting U.S. president to cast an early ballot. Opening the second half of a whirlwind tour of eight states in two days, the Obama campaign planned a pit-stop in Chicago, where the President would cast his ballot early and in person at a location near his South Side home.

Taking advantage of early voting has been a key strategy of the Democratic Party in this campaign. Campaign manager Jim Messina, in a conference call with reporters, explained:

“Early vote isn’t only taking a finite number of voters and only changing the day they vote… What early vote does is help us get out our low propensity voters — voters called sporadic voters — which broadens our universe and frees up more ‘get out the vote’ resources later, especially on Election Day,” Messina said.

Less than two weeks from November 6, approximately 8 million people have already cast ballots in the 32 states where early voting is permitted.

According to the latest polling numbers, the Democratic strategy seems to be working. In Iowa, where the two-day Obama campaign blitz began, early voting figures largely favor Obama. Democrats there have cast 46 percent of the ballots, versus 32 percent for Republicans.

In Nevada, where the Obama campaign landed yesterday, nearly 49 percent of ballots were cast by Democrats, against 37 percent for Republicans.

Determining the tilt of early voting numbers in Ohio is slightly more complicated, given that voters there do not register with a party affiliation. To determine how the Buckeye State is voting, analysts look at how each county and precinct voted in 2008, and compare those numbers with 2012. A memo sent out yesterday by the Obama campaign said that “In counties that Obama won in 2008, 10 percent of registered voters have already cast their ballots, versus only 7 percent in Republican counties.” The memo also noted, “Voters in precincts that voted for Obama in 2008 have cast more than half (54 percent) of the 2012 ballots.”

A Time magazine  poll released yesterday showed that among early voters, Obama led Romney 60 to 30 percent. Overall, the poll found a five-point lead for Obama, with a +/- 3 percent margin of error.

However, the Romney campaign found a different, more favorable way to interpret the numbers in Ohio. In a memo sent out Thursday afternoon, Scott Jennings, the senior advisor and Ohio state manager at Romney for President, explained why the Romney camp is confident about winning in that battleground state:

One thing all the public surveys have in common is that Governor Romney is winning among Independent voters. In the 19 polls released in the public realm since the first debate, Governor Romney leads among Independents in 15 of them (two did not include data among INDs). And, if you take an average of his lead among Independents in those 15 polls, the margin is 12 points (49-37).

The Time Magazine poll shows Governor Romney trailing by 5 points statewide, but winning Independent voters by a 53%-38% margin. That’s just not possible. Write it down – if Mitt Romney wins independent voters by 15 points in Ohio, he’ll be the next President of the United States.

The Obama campaign has only offered one metric to back up their implausible early vote statistics: that Obama ’08 precincts are turning out more voters than McCain ’08 precincts. Among the flaws in measuring voter turnout this way: redistricting took place since 2008, so the precincts aren’t even the same, and there are countless “Obama ’08 precincts” that are traditionally Republican and will be Romney precincts in 2012.

With a total of 18 electoral votes up for grabs, both campaigns are heavily investing in a victory in Ohio. According to NY Times analyst Nate Silver, there is a 50-50 chance Ohio will prove to be decisive in this election. But neither campaign is willing to bet on a coin toss.

Photo Credit: AP/Pablo Martinez Monsivais

 

  • old_blu

    I’ll bet the President will at least win in his home state, I don’t think Romney can say that.

    • Obama Has To Win Or We All Will Pay Dearly!!!

      • old_blu

        I think our President has this in the bag. Did you hear Colin Powell talk about Obama yesterday? How great was that?

        • Yes I Did!!!! 🙂 But They Still Lying , Cheating And Stealing In This Election!!! 🙁

          • BDD1951

            I wish the General would get out and campaign for our Prez.

          • IT WAS GREAT TO GET THE ENDORSEMENT OF GENERAL COLIN POWELL

          • ALLLLAMERICAN

            does YOUR news channel NOT report the scams,schemes and tricks the Libs are doing and did last election!!!!

            Have you EVER heard of ACORN
            Have you EVER heard of the Black Panthers

          • I DO NOT PUT ANYTHING PASS THE REPUBLICANS. THEY WILL DO ANYTHING TO WIN. OBAMA/BIDEN 2012

  • Mimi2kool

    Romney won’t win in Massachusetts. He fooled the residents there into voting for him for governor, but they won’t get fooled again, no no.

    • Dave_dido

      You go, Roger Daltry!

  • dtgraham

    They’d better keep promoting and pushing early voting because that’s the ticket. I think Democratic voters are likely to face some nasty surprises on election day in GOP controlled states. Early voting can largely mitigate that in several ways.

    I just saw a surprising video that I’d never seen or heard of before. It’s a speech by JFK that goes on for 10 minutes and has him clearly talking about some kind of universal health care legislation that he was working on. He does make it clear that it isn’t the British single payer government model but it sounds more extensive than Obamacare. Perhaps much more so. I suppose he could have been talking about medicare and medicaid which was yet to come, but I don’t think so. It doesn’t sound like it. It can be found on You Tube by typing in “imagine what Fox News would say”, if anyone’s interested.

    • nobsartist

      I early voted and intend to spend the day at my polling place looking for republiCON thugs with my friend, Louisville Slugger.

      • BDD1951

        I’ve met that guy. LOL

      • dtgraham

        I’m glad you’re bringing your little friend nobs. I can’t believe what I’m hearing about the tactics of the True the Vote group. They’re aggressive and they get in the faces of voters and poll workers alike. The goal is to slow down the whole process and get the lines backed up enough that many people just get fed up and leave before voting. Not everyone wants to stand in line for hours in an unpleasant atmosphere to boot.

        I don’t know where the police and justice system are. Dem groups need to send their own goons to polling places to counter the True the Vote goons. Christ, this is starting to sound like a hockey game. Maybe the opposing goons will make everyone behave and there’ll be some disappointed people. “Yeah, I went out to see some action and an election broke out.” “I got no luck I tell you.”

  • ObozoMustGo

    DISTRACTIONS………… DISTRACTIONS………………………. DISTRACTIONS………

    Ignore what these useful idiots are writing about. It’s nothing more than a distraction to keep the focus off of Obozo and his failures. Especially the scandal of Benghazi. Let’s look at some facts:

    1) the attack lasted about 8 and 1/2 hours.
    2) The 2 SEALS that were killed were not even at the compound, but were at the safe house a mile away. They came to fight and to try to save the ambassador.
    3) The SEALS were killed 7 hours AFTER the attack started. These are facts.
    4) Obozo and the State Department knew within minutes that the attack was happening
    5) Obozo knew within 2 hours that a known terrorist group had claimed responsibility.
    6) The military had moved pieces into position and could have been there within 30 minutes to fight back FROM THE START.
    7) They were begging for the order to go in, but the orders were never given.
    8) A drone flying overhead was beaming live video back to the WH and State Department.

    OBOZO WATCHED AS OUR MEN WERE UNDER SIEGE AND WATCHED THEM GET KILLED. AND HE DID NOTHING ABOUT IT. THEN HE BLAMED A VIDEO FOR IT.

    You leftist freaks may not like it, but that doesn’t mean that it’s not the truth.

    You are supporting a coward that let our men be killed AND DID NOTHING!

    You are supporting a coward that let our men be killed and then lied about a stupid video for a month.

    You are supporting a coward that thinks you are such fools that he can do anything and you morons will still support him unconditionally.

    WTF does it take for you leftist freaks to withdraw your support from this coward? How bad does he have to be before you turn your back on him? WTF is wrong with you people?

    Have a nice day!

    “The difference between being stupid and being a fool: A stupid person at least has an idea about their own inadequacies. The fool is oblivious to them, and is more inclined to believe their own fantasies and lies as truth.” – ObozoMustGo

    • nobsartist

      Speaking of distractions, once again you win the stupid comment of the day award. Please check your mailbox for your award and hat.

      • ALLLLAMERICAN

        WHY?????

        why do you say STUPID stuff to these FACTS—-

        IT’S UNREAL!!!!!!!!!!!! YOU PEOPLE

        IT’S VERY EMBARRASING TO OUR COUNRTY

    • I think you were there, right? Obozo, you must go and vote for Obama or are you too white?

      • ALLLLAMERICAN

        Donald—-

        I would think YOU would care about what is going on in Libya and that our President is lying to us!!!

        obama is right, he said you Libs don’t care what he does or gets by with you will still vote for him. He said the Democrats are too dumb to realize what is going on.

      • ObozoMustGo

        Donny boy throws out the race card. Nice work Donny boy. You’re even more of a fool than I thought. Fact is that Obozo stood by and watched as Americans were killed and did nothing, then he lied about a stupid video to cover it up. Remain oblivious.

        Have a nice day!

        “The difference between being stupid and being a fool: A stupid person at least has an idea about their own inadequacies. The fool is oblivious to them, and is more inclined to believe their own fantasies and lies as truth.” – ObozoMustGo

  • nobsartist

    President Obama is leading ALL early voting by double digits.

    President Obama will be re-elected by historic margins and Dems will take both Houses.

    The end of the stupidity and felonious actions by republiCON traitors is near.

  • nobsartist

    Dont forget to demand to see any poll worker’s I.D. that asks to see yours.

    “Drivers license and proof of citizenship, please.”

    After all, we must be sure that you are qualified and supposed to be working in the polling place.

    • BDD1951

      Mine will be pinned to my shirt. They won’t have to. I just dread the day. I made a commitment or I would back out because of all the repubican mess. Now they are planning to be at polls where mostly minorities vote. That would be my precinct. We’re making call at Dem. Hq. trying to get people out to vote early. That’s the key.

      • ALLLLAMERICAN

        HAVE YOU EVER HEARD OF THE BLACK PANTHER CLUB—-

        There was intimidation going on LAST election.

        Some people walked up to vote and there stood some black panther guards,
        one brandishing a nightstick, standing in front of the door.

        They would NOT let people in unless they were voting for obama.
        The women and older people were scared, so they left.

        These ARE the people that vote obama

    • Hay, that sounds like a good idea. How about we ask for Romney’s Driving license and his birth certifcate?

      • ALLLLAMERICAN

        BIG DEAL—-HOW BOUT YOU ASK

        • nobsartist

          cryptic? write much, allfullofshit or are you only good at copying the bs that you spew?

  • When I lived in Texas back in the 90’s I took my 85 year old mother to vote and I voted as well and that was in September.

  • I found out today that I was not going to be an election judge. I’ve been one for the last 12 years. I was told, by another judge, that many of us were not called to serve because as Repulican judges, we did not vote as Republicans. How crazy is that? I thought my vote was my choice. I wonder what Mr. Powell would think about that? What will they try next?

    • ALLLLAMERICAN

      Makes since—-If your NOT Republican why would you serve as a Republican judge

  • Dave_dido

    Ohio is in the bag for Obama. No worries, Mates. The Republicans sealed their fate in Ohio in the last Ohio election with Issue 2. That issue attempted to suppress collective bargaining rights for public employees. Ohioans soundly rejected it because we don’t want to work like slaves for the 1%ers. The Republican National Committee advised Ohio’s Republican governor and it’s Republican senate not to attempt this action in a strongly unionized state, but they went ahead with it anyway. Now, many formerly Republican teachers and city and county workers plan to vote a straight Democratic ticket because they are still so angry about Issue 2. Republican greed came back to bite them in the butt this time! Whoooopeeeeee!
    The only way the Romney can win in Ohio is for the GOP to be successful once again in tampering with the electronic voting machines. They did it in 2004 in Ohio and George W. Bush benefited but his IT guru, Mike Connell, lost- Connell died in a plane crash near Akron 3 days before he was supposed to testify about alleged voting machine tampering.The Europeans have quit using electronic voting because of the danger of tampering. In 2004 all the exit polls showed Bush losing in Ohio, but, wonder of wonders, the electronic tabulation gave him the victory. Don’t be surprised if it happens again in Ohio.

    • daniel bostdorf

      This all is a moot point.

      Today—The average of 12 national polls and early voting exit polls indicates Obama is going to win with over 270 Electoral College votes….Romney is losing Ohio as well as Florida.

      Don’t get complacent, however, GO VOTE for Obama as you planned!

      The neo-fascists of Romney/Ryan/Rove/KOch Brothers has been defeated by clear thinking Americans.

    • northroader1775

      I think it is within your rights as a voter to request a paper ballot and put it in the box yourself..maybe that’s something we should be pushing.

  • northroader1775

    Please continue to just ignore the trolls if you acknowledge them they just fill up the page with BS…move on as if they don’t exist