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Tuesday, September 27, 2016

According to a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday, Newark mayor Cory Booker remains the overwhelming favorite in New Jersey’s upcoming special election to replace the late Frank Lautenberg in the U.S. Senate.

Booker leads each of his rivals for the Democratic nomination — U.S. Representatives Frank Pallone and Rush Holt, and New Jersey General Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver — by over 30 percent; 49 percent of likely voters support Booker for the nomination, compared to 12 percent for Pallone, 8 percent for Holt, and 3 percent for Oliver, while 28 percent remain undecided.

Booker, who has been the frontrunner since before Lautenberg had even declared in February that he would not seek re-election, has been the subject of many attacks since the campaign ramped into full swing. They do not appear to have made much of an impact, however; Booker’s favorability rating among likely Democratic primary voters remains a sky-high 64 percent, while just 8 percent hold an unfavorable view of the two-term mayor.

Booker’s rivals are also reasonably well liked — none has an unfavorable rating of over 10 percent — but they are also more or less unknown; 65 percent of likely Democratic primary voters have no opinion of Pallone, 70 percent have no opinion of Holt, and 76 percent have no opinion of Oliver. So although voters would be happy enough with any of the four candidates — 41 percent say they would be “not really upset” if their favored candidate did not win the nomination, compared to 41 percent who would be “somewhat upset” and just 14 percent who would be “very upset” — voters appear poised to go with the household name.

Pallone had hoped to shake up the race by winning the endorsement of Senator Lautenberg’s family, but that has not been the case; just 28 percent of likely voters are aware of the Lautenbergs’ endorsement, and only 16 percent say that it makes them more likely to vote for Congressman Pallone.

The Monmouth poll echoes the results of a Quinnipiac University poll earlier in the month, which also found Booker running away with the nomination.

Should Booker triumph in the August 13th primary, he would be the heavy favorite to defeat the likely Republican nominee, former Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan, in the October 13th general election.

Photo: BBC World Service via Flickr.com

  • Dominick Vila

    I wish the same was true throughout the confederacy, the Bible Belt, and states like Montana…

    Finding comfort on the fact that a Democrat may win in a blue state is a misguided illusion. Our problem does not involve Democrats winning elections in blue states, but the likelihood of Democrats losing to TP candidates in red and “purple” states. Hopefully Democrats will wake up and do something to mitigate what is likely to happen in 2014, because if we don’t the last two years of the Obama presidency are likely to be limited to walking his dog and entertaining foreign dignitaries.

    • youmustbejoking

      I’m hoping Democrats and Independents will realize how very important the elections in between presidential ones and will get out and vote. It should be obvious to Independents that any votes for Republicans do nothing but contribute to the gridlock in Washington and the absolute disregard those elected to state governments have for the will of the people. The extreme legislation that has been passed by these extremist legislators have done more harm to states and their citizens than anything we have seen in a long time. Look what has happened in Michigan. The people in the cities that the governor has taken over are truly without representation and the governor and his people have demonstrated they are willing to lie and break the law to get their way. The people voted against the governors “emergency management” and then the legislature came back and passed it again- against the will of the people- and added to the law that it can’t be voted on by the people again. That is really denying people their right to have a say in the governance of their cities and state. Then they tried to do an end run around the courts by getting a court hearing delayed for 5 minutes so they could file the bankruptcy papers on Detroit before going into the hearing. Fortunately, the court has declared what they did was against the constitution of Michigan, but it shows they are willing to do dirty tricks. Just as they did in Ohio and what they are doing in Texas. Ohio made it so that if a woman were to have any complications from an abortion, any community hospitals that are not private can’t take her as a patient. So they said that the bill they passed “for the health of women” that a hospital would have to let a woman bleed to death rather than help her unless they are a private hospital. In Texas, legislation they could not get passed in regular session when a 2/3 majority is needed, they are passing in “special sessions” where they only need a simple majority. Legislation that the citizens of both parties overwhelmingly reject in polls taken in the state. It will serve to close many clinics where low income women are able to get cancer screenings as well as birth control and other health matters. So Texas will cause many low income women to end up with unwanted pregnancies by keeping them from having the birth control they need to prevent them, then they will have babies they can’t afford to care for and won’t have safety net programs because they also ended or severely cut funding to those very programs they will need after having babies they never wanted to get pregnant with in the first place. Others Republican controlled states are passing legislation along the same lines. They truly are waging a war on women and womens health. People must vote them out of office in 2014 and 2016 and every election after that.