Poll: Democrats Poised To Hold Gabby Giffords’ Seat

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, Democrats are poised for a decisive victory in tomorrow’s special election to replace Gabby Giffords.

The poll shows Democrat Ron Barber leading his Republican challenger Jesse Kelly by a 53 to 41 percent margin. Green Party candidate Charlie Manolakis is polling at 4 percent.

Barber leads 58 percent to 37 percent among the 57 percent of voters who have already cast their ballots; that massive 21 point edge suggests that Barber is almost guaranteed to win on Tuesday.

Although Barber is comfortably ahead in a relatively conservative district — John McCain won there by a 52 to 46 percent margin in 2008 — there are signs that President Barack Obama may not fare as well in November. Only 44 percent of voters in the district approve of Obama, compared to 50 percent who disapprove. Furthermore, despite Barber’s 12 point lead, likely voters only say that they want Democrats to have control of Congress by a 48 to 44 percent margin. As PPP notes, “That’s an unusually large gap between the horse race and who voters want to have control.” It seems that Barber’s personal popularity — he has a 58 percent favorability rating — and his close ties to the immensely popular Giffords are overshadowing voters’ ambivalence about the Democratic party.

“Democrats are likely to win this race comfortably tomorrow,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the unusual circumstances of the contest make its relevance to any other contest later this year pretty limited. It’s not often you have a special election to replace an incumbent who resigned with a 67% favorability rating.”

Start your day with National Memo Newsletter

Know first.

The opinions that matter. Delivered to your inbox every morning

How A Stuttering President Confronts A Right-Wing Bully

Donald Trump mocks Joe Biden’s stutter,” the headlines blare, and I am confronted (again) with (more) proof that the presumptive Republican presidential nominee hates people like me.

Keep reading...Show less
Trump at Trump Tower

Former President Donald Trump at Trump Tower in Manhattan

NEW YORK, March 25 (Reuters) - Donald Trump faces a Monday deadline to post a bond to cover a $454 million civil fraud judgment or face the risk of New York state seizing some of his marquee properties.Trump, seeking to regain the presidency this year, must either pay the money out of his own pocket or post a bond while he appeals Justice Arthur Engoron's February 16 judgment against him for manipulating his net worth and his family real estate company's property values to dupe lenders and insurers.

Keep reading...Show less
{{ post.roar_specific_data.api_data.analytics }}