By Henry Decker

Poll: Scott Brown Would Crush Dem Opponents In Special Election

December 20, 2012 5:43 pm Category: Memo Pad 32 Comments A+ / A-
Poll: Scott Brown Would Crush Dem Opponents In Special Election

According to a new WBUR poll, if Massachusetts senator John Kerry leaves the Senate to serve as Secretary of State, Republican senator Scott Brown would be the overwhelming favorite to win a special election for the open seat. There is reason to believe, however, that Brown’s lead is not as safe as it seems.

Since U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice withdrew her name from consideration for the appointment, Kerry has reportedly become President Obama’s top choice to run the State Department. According to the poll, however, sending Kerry to Foggy Bottom could end up weakening the Democratic majority in the Senate.

In a hypothetical special election, Brown — who scored a stunning upset victory in the 2010 special election to replace the late Ted Kennedy, before losing his 2012 bid for a full term to Elizabeth Warren — would hold massive double-digit leads over five of his potential opponents. According to the WBUR poll, Brown holds a 51 to 36 percent over his 2010 opponent Martha Coakley, a 48 to 30 percent lead over Rep. Ed Markey, a 47 to 28 percent lead over Rep. Mike Capuano, a 51 to 24 percent lead over Rep. Steve Lynch, and a 49 to 30 percent lead over Rep. Marty Meehan.

Brown’s strong numbers are driven by his personal appeal; despite having just voted him out of office, 58 percent of voters have a favorable view of Brown, compared to 28 percent who view him unfavorably.

One potential candidate would pose a tougher challenge to Brown; Governor Deval Patrick — who holds a 60 to 26 percent favorability rating — trails Brown by just seven points, 47 to 40 percent. But Patrick, a potential cabinet appointee himself, is considered unlikely to run for the seat.

Brown’s leads over his potential opponents may not be as imposing as they appear at first glance. Despite his high favorability and solid leads, Brown fails to crack 50 percent against Markey, Capuano, or Meehan. Furthermore, when paired against a generic Democratic candidate, Brown’s lead is just 47 to 39 percent, with 15 percent undecided. This suggests that Brown’s opponents’ numbers could improve once Massachusetts voters learn more about them; over 30 percent of respondents have never heard of Markey, Capuano, or Meehan, and over 27 percent have heard of the three but are undecided about whether they view them favorably. This suggests that the three congressmen all have significant room to improve their numbers.

Furthermore, Brown will once again have to deal with the fact that Massachusetts is one of the most deep-blue states in the nation. Voters actually view Brown more favorably than they view Senator-elect Warren, but that didn’t stop them from giving the Democrat a 7.4 percent win on Election Day.

In 2011, Brown led Warren by as much as 15 percent in the polls, before voters learned more about her and ultimately voted Democratic. If Brown does get the opportunity to run for Senate again, it seems likely that his 2014 race could follow the same pattern.

Photo by Talk Radio News Service via Flickr.com

Poll: Scott Brown Would Crush Dem Opponents In Special Election Reviewed by on . According to a new WBUR poll, if Massachusetts senator John Kerry leaves the Senate to serve as Secretary of State, Republican senator Scott Brown would be the According to a new WBUR poll, if Massachusetts senator John Kerry leaves the Senate to serve as Secretary of State, Republican senator Scott Brown would be the Rating:

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  • Sand_Cat

    Just more stupid people ready to vote for another Republican, then whine and cry when he joins the others in screwing them.

  • dtgraham

    CNN/ORC and WBUR polls found these 5 things:

    53% of Americans view the Republican Party as too extreme and want them to compromise more in the Democrats favour.

    Americans would blame the GOP more than the Dems if no compromise is reached by an 11% margin.

    Obama is more popular than Boehner by a margin of 18 percentage points.

    YET

    Scott Brown would crush Dem opponents in special election.

    51% of Americans want the GOP to keep control of the House.

    “We have met the enemy and he is us.”
    — Walt Kelly.

    • dalnb

      You can’t be serious – where are you getting your facts? They sound like the same ones that FOX and the FOX radio and TV talk show hosts were spouting before the November elections!

      We see what good the 2010 elections did by putting too many unqualified Republicans in Congress and we can see what their dysfunctional leadership is doing not only to the party but the elected officials who are being embarrassed every day by the nonsensical and disconnected disjointed alleged leadership in the party.

      We could be happy with a capable Republican party but we have not seen that in years and years and they seem to be getting worse everyday!

      • dtgraham

        I got my facts from the two National Memo stories that had those poll results. It struck me that they contained completely contradictory polling data. Americans appear to believe that the Republicans have become a bunch of jerkwads but, still, too many of them are apparently willing enough to vote against their own beliefs on this that they seem to be their own worst enemy. That was the point.

        • CVBeethoven

          If 51% of Americans want to see the GOP keep control of the House, then why did the Democrats get 1 million more votes for their House candidates in 2012 election? Gerrymandering, not the will of the people, kept the Republicans in charge of the House.

      • terry b

        Man, you are good. I couldn’t have said it any better. Way to go.

  • William Quigley

    Don’t count your chickens before they hatch. As soon as Governor Patrick selects a person to fill the seat, you will find Brown’s numbers going down. Brown may have a base of to work from, but he also has a large and increasingly large group of the electorate who want no part of him. As was pointed out in his run against senator elect Elizabeth Warren, being a senator is more than being a regular guy riding around the South Shore in his pick up truck and plaid shirt.

  • CVBeethoven

    In my list of the 10 worst Members of the House of Representatives, 9 are Republicans, mostly T-baggers. The other one? Ed Markey. He exhibits the typically Republican trait of pushing emotional dogma over fact when it comes to Science.

    I’m not a resident of Massachusetts, so wouldn’t be voting anyway, but if Markey were the candidate, this would be the one time in my life I voted (R) in a Senate race. The Senate would be a worse with Markey as a Member than Brown. Hopefully he won’t be the Democratic Party’s selectee.

    • Sand_Cat

      Don’t know Markey, but even if your comment about him is understated, NOTHING, and I mean NOTHING is enough to justify giving the Republicans another vote in Congress in either house.

  • CVBeethoven

    The smartest thing Patrick could do is appoint someone who has no intention of running for the seat (perhaps the same man he appointed to replace Kennedy) then run for the seat himself. I reckon he’d flatten Brown.

  • daniel bostdorf

    Not if Barney Frank wanted the seat. He would win.

    Patrick would win as well.

    I am a rsident of Massachussets…where universla health care-like Obamacare-is working and saving peoples lives.

  • gahoof

    Kudos to MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow who called this about a month ago. She pointed out that his may have been the goal of the Republican opposition to Rice.

  • http://www.facebook.com/dominick.vila.1 Dominick Vila

    President Obama is considering nominating a Republican to replace Leon Panetta as Scretary of Defense. If he does, does anyone expect the Governor of a red state to hold a special election to replace that person? Don’t count on it. He/she will select a hard line Republican as a replacement. The goal is to reduce the Democratic lead in the Senate to the point that the possibility of hacing 60 votes to override a presidential veto is a virtual impossibility.

    • dalnb

      Many think that was the whole effort behind the John McCain and followers efforts to discredit Ms. Rice as Hillary Clinton’s replacement. The idea was to get her out of the way so Kerry could move into the position leaving his current position open for a far less qualified person to eventually end up in Kerry’s senate seat! A simple process of the temporary appointment of a weak replacement that will not sustain in the next election and the GOP has won another seat with their underhanded tactics. Anyone who thinks the movement is not part of the GOP master plan to weaken the Democratic party by replacing strong qualified democrats with Republicans who are ready to fall in behind party leadership with no regard to the needs of America is living a blind life!

    • http://profile.yahoo.com/SR35FAY23FDMCTOLHT3DVB5O5I the king

      you nuts

    • http://profile.yahoo.com/SR35FAY23FDMCTOLHT3DVB5O5I the king

      we dont need republica to f thing up like they are doing now F every thing up

    • CVBeethoven

      That Republican, Chuck Hagel, does not hold an elective office, therefore no place for a Governoer of a red state to replace.

  • nobsartist

    Are these the same pollsters that said romney was ahead of Obama?

    • Sand_Cat

      Let’s hope so!

  • AlfredSonny

    In 1968, Massachusetts made a positive national impact by being the only state against President Richard Nixon who eventually was the first president forced to resign in midst of a scandal. In 2010, Massachusetts made a negative national impact by electing Scott Brown to replace Senator Ted Kennedy and participated with the Republicans in record-breaking filibusters that obstructed the federal government.

  • commserver

    Elizabeth Warren wasn’t suppose to win but she did.

    Leads don’t mean anything. The final result is what counts.

    It is a matter of finding a strong candidate who can make the issues that face our country and how Scott Brown has acted during his tenure. Is he out of seen to be working for the good of the state or is he just another GOP hack?

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_OLT3BBICDAFJXQAHHKXXLJUCH4 Stella53

    Who did they poll? Conservatives? Those same polls said Romney would win the election. We know how that turned out!

  • http://www.facebook.com/nancy.lyttle.7 Nancy Lyttle

    Let him go back to nude Modeling, that seems to be his forte.

  • http://www.facebook.com/michael.ross.7505468 Michael Ross

    Brown likes to advertise himself as civil and bipartisan, but he revealed his true colors during and after the campaign against Elizabeth Warren. His supporters may desperately want to think the residents of Massachusetts will forget his campaign of hatred and stupidity, but everyone that voted for Warren won’t.

  • howa4x

    Brown will also be held hostage by events in DC. If the republicans still stay on track to be the party of No, then what would be Brown’s message? If he gets painted as a tea party supporter, or wants to leave the bush tax rates in place for billionairs or says he doesn’t want to limit restrictions on assualt weapons, then people might not veiw him that favorably. He has to carry the republican water and the bucket might be heavier this time. Don’t forget when he ran against Warren there was no Newtown massacre, or fiscal cliff issue. Now he has to take a position on both. If he wants restrictions on militay weapons he looses republican support but if he dosen’t he looses independents. Same with the cliff talks. If the country blames republicans for a failure to make a deal, he has to own that. I don’t think his road will be that easy. He won against Coakley because she ran a terrible campaign, and lost against Warren because she ran a good one. You know that Obama, Warren and the DNC will pour millions in there to defeat him. I think he is very beatable.

  • Pingback: The National Memo » Kennedys, Movie Stars, And More: 6 Candidates For Kerry’s Senate Seat

  • dalnb

    Scott Brown stirred excitement before when he first ran for office and we were thrilled when he was elected. We had great expectations with hopes driven by a strong background and stronger campaign promises. However, it did not take long before the Tea Party mandates started catching up with him and it lead to his failure to meet our expectations and eventually his removal from office.
    If he expects to get elected again he will have to vow to stay clear of the Tea Party and to be the representative we thought we were electing before. He had some big boots to fill but walked into office in sneakers; not as a leader but another follower! We need leadership that will look to the needs and welfare of ALL of America and not another Tea Party puppet!

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Jim-Myers/100001512942781 Jim Myers

      Replying to dalnb –

      What makes you think he would turn his back on the Tea Party? Even if he says he would, once elected he would likely remove his cloak and reveal his original spots.

      “Once a Leopard, always a Leopard.”

      (Sorry if I disparaged any Leopards.)

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/YBWWPDTU7ZZAYYNPQLVJBAFRUE Michaelj M.

    The repubiclan party are beginning to start their b/s for Sham brown. I imagine that we will see and hear fox (the propoganda station for the repubiclan) to start talking as to how good he is???
    He reminds me of the robot when they spoke. If you don’t have anything constructive to talk about the issues, they will go to character assassination. Hey Brown, it didn’t take long to show your true color.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/YBWWPDTU7ZZAYYNPQLVJBAFRUE Michaelj M.

    The only thing that sham brown would crush is when he sits down. He may lose all his brains. The shamer must be getting alot of money from the tee/hee party and let us not forget the rebupiclan party.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_KCS3Y6VPV2ZQPEWGGZLPSKQI7M Maynard

    What does it say about the awareness of the citizenry of one of our supposedly more intellectual states if 30% of the voters there have never heard of Markey who has been in the House for years? He has not been inactive there either. But if you said Markey Mark (The former stage name of the actor Mark Wahlberg) the percentage who would recognize HIM would go way up. Not that I have anything against Wahlberg. He was my neighborhood acquaintance when he was growing up and I would have been his Spanish teacher for a while if he hadn’t dropped out of the Boston Public Schools that January. He has done very well in both his personal and professional life. Let’s hope Congressman Markey can be similarly successful in making the transition to the Senate. I suggest he contact Wahlberg to see if they can do a few campaign stops together.

  • 113121

    lol. Well.

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