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Thursday, October 27, 2016

The Democratic presidential primaries might actually be heating up into a real campaign, with Bernie Sanders taking the lead over Hillary Clinton in a poll of New Hampshire Democratic voters, right next door to his home state of Vermont. But on the other hand, Hillary Clinton is still well ahead in the key first caucus state of Iowa — for now, anyway.

The political world is buzzing at the results of the new Franklin Pierce University poll of the New Hampshire Democratic primary: Sanders 44 percent, Clinton 37 percent, Joe Biden 9 percent, Jim Webb 1 percent, and Martin O’Malley and Lincoln Chafee with less than 1 percent each. (Vice President Biden is not currently running for president, but he has been included in many polls.)

The last time FPU polled New Hampshire, way back in March, Clinton had 47 percent, then Elizabeth Warren at 22 percent, Biden with 10 percent, Sanders 8 percent, Andrew Cuomo 4 percent, O’Malley 1 percent, and Webb with less than 1 percent. Thus it would appear that Sanders has easily absorbed many voters who would’ve been supporting Warren, and then he made some further gains from right out of Clinton’s column.

In Iowa, however, Clinton remains in the lead in a new survey from Democratic-aligned firm Public Policy Polling: Clinton 52 percent, Sanders 25 percent, O’Malley 7 percent, Webb 3 percent, and Chafee 1 percent.

If this were an actual caucus election result, it would of course be a landslide for Clinton. But the caucus is roughly six months away — and this poll is itself something of an improvement for Sanders from PPP’s last numbers in April, when Clinton was ahead 62 percent to 14 percent.

On the Republican side, meanwhile, the current leader in both states is… Donald Trump.

FPU’s Republican survey has The Donald with 18 percent, followed by Jeb Bush at 13 percent, John Kasich 12 percent, Ted Cruz 10 percent, and Carly Fiorina rounding out the top five with 9 percent.

On the Republican side in Iowa, PPP has Trump ahead with 19 percent, then Ben Carson and Scott Walker with 12 percent each, Bush at 11 percent, and Fiorina with 10 percent.

Photo: Vermont senator and U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders greets supporters at a campaign town hall in Manchester, New Hampshire, August 1, 2015. (REUTERS/Dominick Reuter)

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Copyright 2015 The National Memo
  • FT66

    Unfortunately, Bernie won’t register anywhere in NH, though he is leading in polls there, his name won’t be on ballot. The Law requires him to run as a member of the Party and not as Independent.

    • RED

      Hmm, I wonder who has investigated the legalities of a Presidential run better, the Senator from Vermont who has been in Congress for 20 years or more & is currently running a Presidential campaign or the anonymous commentator on national memo? Hmmm, let me think…..