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Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Polls: Obama Pulling Ahead In Crucial Swing States

A new round of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls shows President Barack Obama opening up significant leads in the crucial swing states of Ohio, Florida, and Virginia.

The latest surveys show Obama leading Mitt Romney in both Florida and Virginia by identical 49 to 44 percent margins. In Ohio, Obama leads 50 to 43 percent.

One key to the president’s lead is that he has erased Romney’s advantage on the economy. In Florida and Virginia, Obama and Romney are virtually tied on the question of which candidate would do a better job handling the economy — and Obama leads Romney by four percent on the question in Ohio. Considering that, until recently, Romney’s entire strategy hinged on sinking Obama with the sluggish economic recovery as an anchor, this should be a red alert for the Republican campaign.

Republicans will also find these numbers troubling due to the simple realities of the Electoral College. As NBC News Senior Political Editor Mark Murray points out,

Romney likely needs to capture at least two of these states, if not all three, to secure the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the presidency.

By comparison, Obama can reach 270 by winning just one or two of these battlegrounds – on top of the other states already considered to be in his column.

(Obama also has an additional path to victory without any of these three states if he wins the toss-up contests of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.)

In addition to the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll, Politico reports that an internal Republican survey conducted this week shows Obama leading Romney by four points in Ohio. If these numbers hold and Romney loses the Buckeye State, his chances of winning the election are slim.

The new state polls follow a broader trend that has emerged since the Democratic Convention: Obama has taken the lead in the presidential race. The most recent New York Times/CBS News poll shows President Obama holding a three-point national lead over Romney; Gallup’s tracking poll shows Obama ahead by six points; and a Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Obama leading by seven points.

As Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, told NBC News: While the president’s lead isn’t insurmountable, “You’d rather be in Obama’s shoes than Romney’s.”

  • The biggest problem for Republicans this election year is the fact that traditional strongholds such as Virginia have turned blue. In fact, even North Carolina is a toss up. This circumstance is forcing the GOP to spend time and money in states they have taken for granted in the past, and in so doing they have to neglect states they were hoping to turn blue by using the Goebellian tactics that have worked so well for them in the past.
    I expect a lot of reflection within the GOP after this election, and purges the likes of which we have never seen before. The fight between traditional conservative Republicans and Tea Party zealots is going to be awsome.

    • jcbsdriver

      I really believe that the “sane” republicans who understand that you can’t go so far to the right and win elections, the same ones who understand that you can not desimate the middle class and continue to keep the country strong and prospering, the same ones who realize you can not alienate most minorities, are letting the right-wing element of the republican party take the ball and run with it. After they lose this election, the ” sane ” ones will be able to regain control of the republican party and get something accomplished. Now that Ryan’s budget has been exposed for the farce that it is, after his lying and making a fool of himself, he will not have the influence he had in Congress. Then the “sane” ones can get behind a rational candidate and support who ever runs in 2016 without having to pander to the crazies like Romney is doing now.

      • I believe the GOP will move center-right after this election and extremists will be purged because of the damage they have caused, but I also think it will be a long time before they regain their footing. Too many intelligent, pragmatic and experienced Republicans have been replaced by zealots that have no business being in Washington, and it will be a long time before they are all replaced with people committed to country rather than hate groups.

      • fedupwitgop

        I agree, because may the Good Lord help us all over the world if R/R wins

  • bcarreiro

    romney likes to pull rank but you have to be distinquished first. he does not know the codes but only the chains.

  • It is hard to imagine how a Mitt Romney could win this election from a population that votes on a more singular issue: could be foreign affairs, economy, a social issue or 2. Regardless of affinities to one Party or another, or one candidate over another, it comes down to one or 2 factors. Women, for instance, most favor womens’ rights; folks who need Government assistance either regularly or periodically, favor those Government programs and the candidate they feel the most comfortable with, etc. I honestly do not believe this Republican Party could come up with a majority to get elected. If they would just enter a more moderate language and throw off the extremism that drives them today, I think people who would ordinarily listen to the candidates on the issues, would be more open to changing their vote/Party affiliation for that particular election. Historically each State has to conduct mid-term elections: folks who bought something fresh or new, have lived with the results for a few years; if they like it they vote that way again; however if they do not like what they bought, they make major shifts in voting patterns; nationally and state-wide. This election is no different than the last, Dems overreached; before that and now, Repubs have overreached in Federal and State. It is very ugly for Repubs politically. They have certainly earned the position they find themselves in now.

    • I AGREE WITH YOU ON MANY ASPECTS – BUT ONE I THINK ALL OF US HAVE OVER-LOOKED: ONE OF OUR MAIN PROBLEMS IS THE MEN WE ELECT TO CONGRESS – BOTH THE SENATE AND THE HOUSE. THEY WORK FOR ONE PARTY – NOT FOR THE CITIZENS. WE SHOULD REALLY LOOK AT ALL OF THEM AND CHECK THEIR RECORD IN CONGRESS FOR ALL THE TIME THEY HAVE BEEN IN OFFICE AND IF THEY HAVE DONE NOTHING CONSTRUCTIVE FOR THE CITIZENS AND OUR NATION – THEY NEED TO BE SENT BACK TO THEIR STATES AND NO LONGER BE IN INVOLVED IN THE RUNNING OF OUR NATION. THE PRESIDENT IS NOT THE BAD GUY – IT’S THE OBSTRUCTIONIST IN CONGRESS.

    • I believe the problem with politics is: Americans, Congress & the President believe the Federal Government is supposed to be involved in all too many issues. The Federal Government from the beginning was meant to have limited powers to run the basic & necessary functions of the Federal Government, leaving most of the rest to the people in their States & local communities, where you have a say in your lives and situations. Big powerful Federal Governemnt are out-of-touch with local issues and just gets to be one Party against the other.
      Our Constitution lists the functions of the Federal Government, and is mainly National Defense, Trade, Interstate issues, Treasury, and according to the 10th. Amendment, most of the rest is left to the States & the People.

  • SORT OUT THE BAD GUYS IN BOTH HOUSES OF CONGRESS AND GET RID OF THEM.

  • Landsende

    I’m looking forward to the debates when Romney will finally have to answer some harsh questions such as why he doesn’t believe there is global warming, despite evidence to the contrary. How he proposes to help the economy and what tax deductions will he eliminate. Why he was once for women’s rights and now isn’t and all the other issues he has flip flopped on. He won’t be able to get away with saying “if I told you where I stand before the election you wouldn’t vote for me”. Then we will see where the polling numbers are after voters see where he really stands on the issues.

  • daniel bostdorf

    Welll according to some posters her like ezread, pllster Scott Rassumssen states otherwise.

    Who is Scott Rassmussn ebehind these polls?

    A paid Republican pollster.

  • I am so happy to live long enough to see a president of color, in the white- house. Every President that I’ve live to see, were all white men. In my younger days, several of my own
    family members were in politics, on L.I. New York , and also in the white house. We were the ( MEREDAY’S ) of New York state. We were all ( Republicans ) but that has all changed.
    I am a ( D emocrate ) now, and will go on campainging, for ( President Barack Obama )
    It’s not just because he is of the darker race and mixed with white, but that doesn’t make
    any differance to me. As I and most of us can realize the his is truely a loveing and careing
    man of God. I am a widow and (78yrs) of age, but I’ve never seen a President who will catch
    a plane, to go instantly to wish his condolances to the families, who suffer tradgidies of
    any kind, at all. I’ve never seen him read from a script/paper, while he is speaking.
    The President reminds me of myself, because, in my school days, I was a speaker and singer also, and I never need a script to speak/sing or raise funds. It would give me the greatest
    pleasure and honor, to stand on stage, to speak about the qualities of our President.

    He has to be very, very proud to have a wife like ( First Lady, Michelle Obama ) I just love
    her too, and I love the fact that she has put her heart, into the fast food resturants, and
    she’s helping the children to eat properly. First Lady could fill in for her husband if ness-
    esary, because she is also an exceptional leader and speaker.

    Well I must stop now, I had to watch my church programs tommorrow.

    Send a letter to me if you’d like for me to introduce our President to the world.

    From; Juanita Marcella Mereday Chandler
    601 Cornell Street # 320
    Aberdeen, Maryland 21001-3141

    I am a former ( Fund-Raising Consultant ) for many large foundations also ( INVENTOR )

    ( I’VE ALWAYS BEEN CALLED, THE POOR LITTLE RICH GIRL, WITH MILLION $$$ IDEAS)

    No, I don’t have anyone to turn to for funds, to help me put one of my (17) inventions
    on the market for public sales. My first invention would bring ($9,000,000 ) or more.

    ( [email protected] )

    God Bless America/ We The People of The Unites States

  • B4Real2012

    That sounds great, but The President should really be leading the fake by 90 points or more. Mitt Ronmey isn’t fit to be the President of the Dog Catchers union, he just thinks that he is, and Ryan isn’t worth mentioning any further. You don’t need to be able to read tea leaves to know that Willert just feels that he is entitled to be president without ever EARNING IT. I would like to say to him, in the venacular of my sister-in-law, MITT, TELL YOUR STORY………………..WALKIN’ Obama 2012