By Henry Decker

Polls Show Possible Upsets In Key Senate Races

October 4, 2012 8:39 pm Category: Memo Pad 8 Comments A+ / A-
Polls Show Possible Upsets In Key Senate Races

According to the latest round of polls, upsets may be brewing in three races that will be crucial in determining which party holds control of the Senate after the November elections.

On Wednesday, Public Policy Polling released a poll showing Democrat Richard Carmona leading Republican Rep. Jeff Flake by a 45 to 43 percent margin in the Arizona Senate race. Flake led Carmona 44 to 43 percent in PPP’s last poll, three weeks ago.

Carmona is thriving on his likeability advantage: 35 percent of Arizona voters view Carmona favorably, while 27 percent view him unfavorably. By contrast, Flake’s favorability is underwater at 40 percent favorable to 41 percent unfavorable.

Carmona is still a long shot to win the Senate seat due to Arizona’s conservative makeup and Romney’s strong support in the state (he leads President Obama by a 58 to 37 percent margin among the 12 percent of voters who are still undecided in the Senate race). Still, as the Real Clear Politics poll average makes plain, Arizona has become a toss-up that Republicans now must defend.

The Republican party apparently agrees; this morning Alexander Burns reported in Politico that the National Republican Senatorial Committee will begin running ads in Phoenix to try to protect the seat.

The Missouri Senate race is also looking good for Democrats. While Senator Claire McCaskill was once considered to be one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country, her opponent Rep. Todd Akin’s continuing meltdown has left her in a strong position to defend her Senate seat. PPP released a poll on Wednesday showing McCaskill leading Akin by a 46 to 40 percent margin, a five point improvement over her one point lead in late August.

Also on Wednesday, Republican-leaning Rasmussen Reports released a poll showing McCaskill leading Akin 51 percent to 45 percent. According to Rasmussen’s survey, only 3 percent of Missouri voters remain undecided. Given the massive fundraising gap between McCaskill and Akin, it seems highly unlikely that the embattled congressman can make a comeback in the race.

There is some good news for Republicans. In Connecticut, a Quinnipiac poll released Thursday shows former WWE CEO Linda McMahon in a virtual tie with Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy. According to the poll, McMahon leads Murphy by a 48 to 47 percent margin.

The race is similar in many ways to the Arizona contest. Connecticut voters view McMahon favorably by a 45 to 41 percent margin, compared to Murphy’s upside-down 36 to 40 percent favorability. Additionally, 50 percent of McMahon supporters are “very enthusiastic” about her candidacy, while just 27 percent are “very enthusiastic” about Murphy.

As in Arizona, however, it’s unclear whether McMahon can overcome national political trends. The Quinnipiac poll shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney 54 to 42 percent in Connecticut; this could significantly boost Murphy’s chances on Election Day.

Photo of Linda McMahon by AP/Jessica Hill

Polls Show Possible Upsets In Key Senate Races Reviewed by on . According to the latest round of polls, upsets may be brewing in three races that will be crucial in determining which party holds control of the Senate after t According to the latest round of polls, upsets may be brewing in three races that will be crucial in determining which party holds control of the Senate after t Rating:

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Comments

  • Jim Lou

    I would say that Missouri and Connecticut are the best chances. Arizona is too conservative.

    • Sand_Cat

      Missouri’s not a good bet, either.

  • chisolm

    Happy to see this article didn’t try to tell us the Montana Senate race is close. Senator Tester(D), 95% supporter of Obama votes to his credit, is losing to Representative Rehberg(R). Obama’s lead is decling and he will take the Senate down with him.

    • edwardw69

      So? Even if the Republicans take the Senate, they won’t have 60 seats; and then, they will come to know the meaning of “paybacks.”

      • DukeDacat

        Yeah, what was that guys name…… Phil A Buster

      • Sand_Cat

        Somehow, I don’t see “payback” happening, and – although I’d love to see the repugnants have some of their own medicine shoved in their faces – it’s better for the nation that only one of the major parties consists of spoiled children peddling fairy tales and denying reality.

        The worst thing is that many of these ignorant children have gotten themselves into the House and Senate, and they just might get the White House, too. All of which says little that’s good about the US voting population.

  • ayayaboy

    I am angry with Obama why he could not tell Romney to stop lying to the American people. .. Remind Romney of all his claims during the Republican primaries. We all know that Romney is a liar and a fraud but Obama needed to say it to his face. One day Romney will repeal Dodd-Frank, another time Romney would praise the good things in Dodd-frank. Romney will tell Tea party that he will repeal Obamney care before the cock crows thrice, romney would say that there are lots of good things in Obamacare. Romney will tell Republican audience that Hispanic illegals must self-deport but will on TV debate say “we cannot round up people on the street”, but Romney is a big supporter of Arizona hostility against Hispanics. Romney proposes voucher system but says it will kick in after our generation. Why can’t Obama tell Romney to say how to handle present and not things of 30th century. Why can’t Obama tell Romney in his face that he had opportunities to create jobs with Bain but he instead fired people and made money firing people; he shipped jobs overseas; sent out his money to offshore when America needed cashflow; he is not coming clear about his career at Bain Capital; he is yet to prove his trustworthiness and fiscal patriotism with his tax returns; ask Romney whether he also supports Planned Parenthood today since he seemed to talk liberalism on debate floor? Ask Romney that he today sounds like anti-Tea party and anti-Arizona governor. How about asking Romney if he really doesn’t want to be president of the 47% welfare victims who will vote Obama? With these, Obama would have won the election that wednesday night. I travelled to Europe and watched the debate in a Bar and the Europeans said Obama left his supporters biting their fingers … Is this Obama or someone else? Some said Obama missed an opportunity to call out Romney-the-liar; others said Obama allowed the liar lie his way through the debate. Some European poked fun at Obama’s performance saying “a Havard lawyer could not argue his case against a fake businessman.” Obama must step up to revealing the rhetoric fakeness of Romney.

  • lazycs

    MO is looking good for McCaskell??? are you for real Todd Akin will beat her by 6 points come Nov

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