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Tuesday, October 17, 2017

A raft of new polls in the past few days show Donald Trump remaining on track for big victories in next week’s big-state contests.

Any potential Trump victories in Florida or Ohio would absolutely force home-state candidates Marco Rubio and John Kasich out of the race, respectively — leaving Ted Cruz as the remaining anti-Trump GOPer.

Also, keep in mind that the Republican field is now shifting into winner-take-all states: if Trump were to win these by even a single vote statewide, he would get all of their delegates. And if he’s winning these states by landslides, he gets the intangible benefit of a huge boost of great publicity and an increase in his supporters’ morale — and a corresponding plummet for anyone else.

The latest polls in Florida:

  • Fox News: Trump 43 percent, Rubio 20 percent, Cruz 16 percent, and Kasich 10 percent.
  • Associated Industries of Florida is the closest one: Trump 33 percent, Rubio 27 percent, Cruz 16 percent, and Kasich 12 percent.
  • Quinnipiac University: Trump 45 percent, Rubio 22 percent, Cruz 18 percent, and Kasich 8 percent.
  • CNN: Trump 40 percent, Rubio 24 percent, Cruz 19 percent, and Kasich 5 percent.
  • University of North Florida: Trump 36 percent, Rubio 24 percent, Cruz 16 percent, and Kasich 9 percent.
  • SurveyUSA: Trump 42 percent, Rubio 22 percent, Cruz 17 percent, and Kasich 10 percent.
  • Monmouth University: Trump 38 percent, Rubio 30 percent, Cruz 17 percent, and Kasich 10 percent.

And the latest polls in Ohio:

  • The newest release from Fox News is the first outfit to have Kasich ahead in his home state: Kasich 34 percent, Trump 29 percent, Cruz 19 percent, Rubio 7 percent.
  • Quinnipiac University: Trump 38 percent, Kasich 32 percent, Cruz 16 percent, and Rubio 9 percent.
  • CNN: Trump 41 percent, Kasich 35 percent, Cruz 15 percent, and Rubio 7 percent.
  • And from Democratic-aligned firm Public Policy Polling: Trump 38 percent, Kasich 35 percent, Cruz 15 percent, and Rubio 5 percent.

And as a bonus, there is also a SurveyUSA poll in North Carolina: Trump 41 percent, Cruz 27 percent, Rubio 14 percent, and Kasich 11 percent. This state, however, is still voting proportionally.

Photo: Republican U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks about the results of the Michigan, Mississippi and other primary elections during a news conference held at his Trump National Golf Club in Jupiter, Florida, March 8, 2016. REUTERS/Joe Skipper

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