Tag: atlantic
Obama Still Beats Trump And Cruz

Obama Still Beats Trump And Cruz

An old friend recently told me about a remarkable conversation she’d had with her mother, aged 95. A white woman resident in the Deep South from birth, she’d shown a lifelong indifference, if not aversion, to politics. Her daughter describes her racial attitudes as characteristic of her generation—never a hater, but also no dissenter from how things used to be.

And yet she found herself in front of the TV, watching Barack and Michelle Obama disembarking from Air Force One in Havana last week with tears streaming down her face. He’s such a great man, she told her daughter, and he tries so hard to do the right thing for the country.

And Michelle. Has any First Lady ever exhibited more grace and class?

Why can’t more people see that? She’d asked her somewhat astonished daughter, who said that she personally wished Obama could run for another term—even if the president himself clearly does not.

Actually, polls reflect that people do understand what an extraordinary job President Obama has done under trying circumstances. Every recent survey shows his approval rating above fifty percent, a considerable accomplishment given cult-like opposition from Republican partisans since his 2009 inauguration.

Can anybody doubt that Obama would defeat either leading Republican candidate—the Sideshow Barker and the Snake Charmer alike—in a landslide? Doubtless his increased popularity derives partly from the contrast.

Partly too, it’s what Obama’s managed to do: unemployment under 5 percent and a record 72 consecutive months of job growth. No, things aren’t back to where we’d like them, economically speaking. But they’re headed the right way, and confidence is returning.

Equally important, Obama argues in an extraordinary interview with Jeffrey Goldberg in the April 2016 Atlantic, is what he hasn’tdone in foreign policy. Disregarding what he derisively calls “the Washington playbook”—the bellicose pronouncements of the city’s permanent class of think-tank commandos—he has refused to join yet another Middle Eastern civil war in Syria.

What pundits describe as Obama’s worst foreign policy debacle he thinks may have been his finest moment: the August 2013 decision not to bomb Syria after drawing a “red line” in the desert forbidding the use of chemical weapons.

Never mind that Russian president Vladimir Putin helped engineer the removal of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad’s chemical weapons arsenal. Goldberg reports that Hillary Clinton told people “If you say you’re going to strike, you have to strike. There’s no choice.”

But Obama decided it was foolish to take the nation to war over an ill-advised remark — defying not only the foreign policy establishment but also America’s “frustrating, high-maintenance” Middle Eastern allies.

“History,” Goldberg writes “may record August 30, 2013, as the day Obama prevented the U.S. from entering yet another disastrous Muslim civil war, and the day he removed the threat of chemical attack on Israel, Turkey or Jordan. Or it could be remembered as the day he let the Middle East slip from America’s grasp, into the hands of Russia, Iran, and ISIS.”

And good riddance, is Obama’s view. With Iran having negotiated away its nuclear weapons making capacity, what does it matter who referees the region’s endless tribal wars?

Obama’s most urgent priority is killing ISIS “caliph” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as he killed Osama bin Laden. Otherwise, he told one Senator “There is no way we should commit to governing the Middle East and North Africa. That would be a basic, fundamental mistake.”

Yes, the ongoing catastrophe in Syria is excruciating to watch, and clearly endangers European security. The Turks could crush ISIS at will. As it’s definitely in their national interest, maybe it’s time they summoned some.

As for Putin, Obama demurs from the commonplace view of the Russian leader as a thug. “The truth is,” he says “Putin, in all of our meetings is scrupulously polite, very frank. Our meetings are very businesslike…. He’s constantly interested in being seen as our peer and as working with us, because he’s not completely stupid.”

High praise from a president very impressed with his own brainpower. “Now if there is somebody in this town that would claim that we would consider going to war with Russia over Crimea and eastern Ukraine,” he continued “they should speak up and be very clear about it.”

Prating about “credibility” doesn’t persuade; it’s Russia’s backyard, not ours.

Obama looks at Syria the same way: how many soldiers, sailors and pilots and for how long? Would a U.S. invasion calm sectarian passions?

Well, when has it ever?

At times, Obama concedes that he’s fallen short in the theatrical aspect of the presidency, appearing aloof and cerebral when the public wants passion. But he’s also persuaded that surrendering to “the cable news hype fest” leads to dumb decisions.

Obama says Putin found his frankness in The Atlantic surprising.

“Unlike you, Vladimir,” he joked. “I don’t get to edit the piece before it’s published.”

Photo: U.S. President Barack Obama waves from the door of Air Force One as he ends his visit to Cuba, at Havana’s international airport, March 22, 2016.   REUTERS/Carlos Barria

Fewer Hurricanes Predicted In Updated Forecast

Fewer Hurricanes Predicted In Updated Forecast

By Jenny Staletovich, The Miami Herald

Forecasters upped the odds for a slow hurricane season Thursday, predicting even fewer storms as record strong winds in the upper atmosphere keep a lid on brewing storms.

Just five to 10 storms are predicted over the rest of the season that runs through November, said Gerry Bell, lead hurricane forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Counting Arthur and Bertha — two hurricanes that arrived early in July and August — only one to four more hurricanes are forecast. The prediction for the number of major storms with winds topping 110 mph still stands at up to two.

“But that doesn’t mean the season is over,” Bell said. “Four hurricanes is a fair amount and all it takes is one of those to make landfall.”

In May, forecasters predicted eight to 13 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to two major hurricanes. They initially believed that an El Nino weather pattern would develop over warming Pacific waters and keep the season in relative check. They also forecast a slow monsoon season off West Africa, in addition to strong winds in the upper atmosphere.

As it turns out, the El Nino pattern has wilted and is now less likely to form during the Atlantic hurricane season. But the record upper winds and weak monsoon conditions appear to be enough to tamp down the season, Bell said. Tropical waters in the Atlantic that feed storms have also remained cooler than expected.

“They’re in place independent of El Nino,” he explained.

Upper atmosphere winds play a crucial role because they make it difficult for storms to grow in strength. Finding out what produced this year’s persistent pattern will take more study, he said, particularly if it relates to climate change.

Since 1981, an average hurricane season has produced 12 named storms, with six hurricanes and three major storms. For the last eight years, Florida — which has been hit more than any other state — has been struck by just one major storm despite more than 1,200 miles of coastline that open it up to storms from almost every direction.

While welcome, this week’s improved forecast should not be taken as a free pass for the season, Bell warned. Forecasters still can’t say in advance what direction storms may take and even one can make life miserable. Take Arthur, which turned the Fourth of July holiday into a frustrating evacuation for much of the Outer Banks when it struck as a Category 2 on July 3.

“There’s no way to predict so far in advance where a hurricane is going to strike,” Bell said. “Even a slow moving tropical storm can dump a foot of rain.”

AFP Photo

Interested in world news? Sign up for our daily email newsletter!

Forecasters Predict Slower Than Normal Hurricane Season

Forecasters Predict Slower Than Normal Hurricane Season

By Ken Kaye, Sun Sentinel

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season should be considerably slower than normal with nine named storms, including three hurricanes, Phil Klotzbach and William Gray said Thursday.

The two Colorado State University climatologists say they expect El Nino, the large-scale weather pattern that suppresses storm formation, to emerge by the heart of the season in August. They also note the tropical Atlantic has cooled in the past few months.

“El Nino is coming,” Klotzbach said. “It has the potential to be a strong one, too.”

Of the three hurricanes, they predict only one will be major, with sustained winds greater than 110 mph. The average season sees 12 named storms, including six hurricanes, three major.

As part of their subdued forecast, Klotzbach and Gray predict a 35 percent chance that a hurricane will strike Florida, compared to the long-term average of 51 percent. They also call for a 35 percent chance that a major hurricane will hit the U.S. coastline.

The state has gone a record eight seasons without a hurricane strike, with the last one being Wilma in October 2005.

Klotzbach and Gray in November said they would suspend issuing forecasts, after losing funding from the insurance industry. But only their December outlook was nixed, and now they’re back in business.

“We’ve been scrambling, but I’ve been able to secure a couple of funding sources, enough to put out the forecasts,” Klotzbach said.

Another forecast team, Tropical Storm Risk, based in London, also calls for a slower than normal season, with 12 named storms, including five hurricanes, two intense. It also predicts three tropical storms and one hurricane will make U.S. landfall.

That firm, too, thinks El Nino will subdue the season, along with cooler Atlantic waters.

Both of the forecast teams note that April outlooks hold large uncertainties. Last April, Klotzbach and Gray were among several climatologists who predicted the 2013 would be highly active; they called for 18 named storms including nine hurricanes.

Yet the season was surprisingly tranquil with 14 tropical systems, including two Category 1 hurricanes, neither of which hit the United States.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will issue its seasonal outlook in May. Hurricane season starts on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

Photo: acccarrino via Flickr