Tag: california democratic primary
With Kamala Harris Ahead, California Senate Race Looks Like A Sure Win For Democrats

With Kamala Harris Ahead, California Senate Race Looks Like A Sure Win For Democrats

All eyes are on California as it approaches it’s primary vote, this coming Tuesday, between Democratic presidential contenders Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. That ballot will also ask Californians for their preferences in the race to replace Sen. Barbara Boxer, who is leaving the upper Chamber and opening up a senate seat in California for the first time since 1992.

California’s peculiar election procedures make this race all the more interesting: The two top finishers Tuesday will go against each other in November’s general election, regardless of party affiliation.

Democrat Kamala Harris, the daughter of immigrants from India and Jamaica, has been the state’s Attorney General since 2010 and is the favorite among the 34 candidates vying for Senator Boxer’s seat. A well-known progressive, Harris has taken strong stances for gun control and environmental protection, and played a large part in securing $26 billion from the National Mortgage Settlement, after tough bargaining with banks following the Great Recession.

Harris has focused on hate crimes throughout her career, particularly against LGBT children in schools, and she opposes the death penalty. Governor Jerry Brown has endorsed Harris, as have other out-of-state Democratic leaders like Senator Cory Booker and Senator Elizabeth Warren.

The GOP hasn’t won a statewide race in California since Arnold Schwarzenegger was reelected in 2006, and the 12 Republican senate hopefuls this year don’t seem to stand much of a chance. None of them have polled higher than 9 percent, and their fundraising efforts are way behind leading Democratic candidates, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

“A Republican candidate really can’t win, at least the ones that are running now,” Stu Mollrich, a GOP media strategist told Bloomberg. This is why many GOP consultants, including Mollrich, are siding with Representative Loretta Sanchez, supporting a moderate Democrat run against Harris rather than a Republican with no chance of defeating her.

Sanchez, who has served 10-terms as a congresswoman from Orange County, is best positioned to earn second place in the primary vote and go up against Harris in November. Sanchez is a known moderate and has sided with Republicans on issues like shielding gun manufacturers from liability and curbing regulations on for-profit colleges. Sanchez, whose parents are Mexican, made headlines last year when she publicly said that up to 20 percent of Muslims want a caliphate, and would use terrorism to achieve that goal.

Although a favorite among Latino voters, Sanchez’s second place finish is not set in stone. Former banker Ron Unz isn’t too far behind her, and according to the Public Policy Institute of California, almost a third of likely voters reported that they remained undecided just two weeks before the election.

Photo: Flickr user Steve Rhodes.

Latest California Polls Show Democrats Well Positioned To Win State Regardless Of Candidate

Latest California Polls Show Democrats Well Positioned To Win State Regardless Of Candidate

The latest polls out of California are showing the same trends that have defined the Democratic primary campaign thus far, with younger voters overwhelmingly supporting Bernie Sanders and older voters backing Hillary Clinton. The determining factor in the upcoming Tuesday primary will be voter turnout.

The good news, for the Democratic Party, is that regardless of who wins the party’s nomination, California voters who feel Sanders is too liberal or that Clinton is too tied to the establishment won’t flee into the arms of Donald Trump, contrary to doomsday predictions made by the racist billionaire and the punditocracy.

Clinton started off the Democratic nomination race with a huge lead nationally and in the Golden State. In February 2015, she commanded 73 percent of the likely vote, according to the California-based Field Research Corporation. Her lead has since evaporated, with 47 percent of likely California voters supporting her and 45 percent support her rival, putting Sanders within the margin of error.

A deeper dive into the numbers reveals that the levels of support the two candidates command effectively cancel each other out. Among male voters, Sanders leads Clinton 48 to 39 percent. Among female voters, she led 49 to 40 percent. Nevertheless, Sanders continued to receive the overwhelming support of young voters, with more than two-thirds of voters under the age of 40 supporting him.

Among likely Democratic voters, 88 percent would support Sanders should he win the nomination and run against Trump. Only six percent of Democrats would defect and vote for Trump. In a Clinton-Trump matchup, 83 percent would support her in the all but likely chance that she runs against Trump, while only eight percent would vote for the orange-colored man.

A poll by PPIC shows a similar level of voter retention regardless of the Democratic nominee. Eighty-five percent of Democratic voters said they would support Clinton or Sanders if the election were held today. Among independents, Sanders polled at 61 percent, keeping with his strong support from political independents, while Clinton polled at 51 percent.

Another unknown is the voting preferences of 2 million first-time voters that have registered in the state in the past 6 months, part of a push by governor Jerry Brown, who recently endorsed Clinton, to get more Californians involved in the election. Among first time voters, Sanders receives 60 percent support, according to the Field Research Corporation poll. A large numbers of California’s newly registered voters are also Hispanic, a crucial demographic in the general election and one which Sanders and Clinton currently split in California.

Clinton is favored to win the primary. But polling predictions have often failed to pan out on primary day, especially in this election cycle. While polling site Real Clear Politics shows that she has averaged a 6 point lead over Sanders, the latest polls show him within the margin of error. The Clinton campaign desperately wants to avoid a repeat of the Indiana primary, which she was all but guaranteed to win, but which come primary day went to Sanders in a historic upset.

But, according to FiveThirtyEight, Clinton is still practically unbeatable, with a 94 percent chance of winning the primary. In addition to maintaining a marginal lead over Sanders, and picking up the endorsement of California’s well-liked governor, Clinton also counts the support of 36 of California’s 53 congressional representatives and both of the state’s senators, Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer.

At stake are the 475 delegates the state carries, which could effectively seal the nomination should Clinton perform well. She is just 73 delegates shy of winning the nomination, including super delegates who have pledged to support her. Of course: regardless of the outcome Tuesday, Bernie Sanders continues to state that he will stay in the race until the Democratic National Convention, where he says he will make an electability argument to superdelegates.

Photo: U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders speaks in East Los Angeles, California, U.S. May 23, 2016.  REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson