Tag: campaign finance
Trump Tariffs

Trump's Tariffs Are Actually A Tax That Democrats Can Cut

As usual, the New York Times gets things exactly wrong in a piece headlined “Trump’s Tariffs are Making Money. That May Make Them Hard to Quit.” The gist of the article is that the tariffs are on a path to raise close to $400 billion a year, and possibly considerably more, depending on where Trump ends up with his trade “deals.”

While this is in fact a very substantial sum, it makes for an obvious campaign issue for Democrats in 2026 and 2028. They can promise a huge tax cut to ordinary workers.

At $400 billion, the tariffs come to an average of more than $3,000 per household annually. The Democrats can promise a large tax cut to working and middle-class families by rolling back the tariffs. They can offset much of the revenue loss by reversing Trump’s tax cuts to the rich. Tax cuts for ordinary people, paid for by higher taxes on the rich, is likely to be a very appealing campaign platform.

The Democrats will also have an advantage in going this route as a result of the fact that Trump will already have the tariffs in effect. Many Democrats, especially union members, have supported tariffs with the idea that they will bring back good-paying manufacturing jobs.

It is almost inconceivable that Trump’s tariffs will bring back any substantial number of manufacturing jobs, and the ones that do come back are not likely to be especially good paying. Historically, manufacturing jobs were high paying because the sector was heavily unionized. This is no longer the case, the manufacturing sector is only slightly more heavily unionized than the rest of the private sector; 8.0 percent in manufacturing compared to 6.0 percent in the rest of the private sector. As a result manufacturing jobs are not likely to pay more than jobs in other sectors.

With the tariffs in effect, workers will be able to see that this is not an effective route for creating good-paying jobs. Therefore, there should be less resistance to rolling them back.

It is also worth reminding folks, especially people who write major articles on economic issues at the New York Times, how tariffs work. They get revenue for the government by raising the prices of things we buy. That means reducing tariffs will lower prices.

The political experts who wrote about the last election all told us that the main reason the Democrats lost was that people hated inflation. This meant that even though most people actually had increases in wages that outpaced prices, they were still angry at Biden and the Democrats because things they bought cost most.

If inflation is very bad news politically, then presumably Donald Trump and the Republicans will be paying a big price for the inflation that is coming about as a result of their tariffs. That would seem to provide a great political opening for the Democrats. Just as Trump scored political points with his promise to bring prices down on day one, the Democrats should be able to score political points by promising to lower prices, but this time with a real plan: cutting tariffs.

It’s true that reducing or eliminating the Trump tariffs may raise the deficit if the tariff reduction is not fully offset by the increased taxes on the rich, but no one seems to vote based on deficits. At least that has been the track record for the last half century. Republicans were not punished for big increases in the deficit under Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, and Democrats were not rewarded for substantial amounts of deficit reduction under Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. The pundit class may get upset, but why should anyone care?

In short, the political warnings in this article are 180 degrees at odds with reality. The Trump tariffs should create a huge political opening for Democrats in future elections.

Reprinted with permission from Substack.

Desperate Republicans Trying To Bully 'Vulnerable' Democrats Over Trump Budget

Desperate Republicans Trying To Bully 'Vulnerable' Democrats Over Trump Budget

The GOP congressional campaign arm is set to launch an advertising campaign attacking Democrats who opposed President Donald Trump’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill Act” that dismantles much of the safety net—yet another reminder that the bill and its provisions are overwhelmingly disliked by the public.

If the bill passes, millions of Americans will lose health care that they currently receive via Medicaid, which was established in 1965 by Democratic President Lyndon Johnson under his “Great Society” plan.

On Monday, Fox News published the details of the upcoming campaign after being given a “first on Fox” preview by the National Republican Congressional Committee. Fox describes the campaign as “aggressive messaging” by the party.

“Out of touch House Democrats lit the fire of inflation and tried to slap Americans with the biggest tax hike in decades, all to fund their radical agenda. Voters won’t forget this betrayal—not now, not next November,” NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella told Fox.

But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Democratic counterpart to the NRCC, sounded less than impressed.

"It's no wonder the so-called moderate House Republicans continue to lie about their Tax Scam: the Big, Ugly Bill is wildly unpopular with the American public and they know their vote for it will lose them their majority next year,” DCCC spokesperson Justin Chermol told the outlet.

And the data backs up Chermol’s assertion.

In a KFF Health poll released June 17, 64 percent of adults had an unfavorable view of the bill. Even more dire for the GOP, while a majority of Republicans—particularly those identifying themselves as MAGA voters—back the bill, support has fallen. For instance, when MAGA voters were told that the bill would cut funding for local hospitals, support dropped 20 percentage points.

Perhaps not surprisingly, even with the support of Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson, the bill barely made it through the GOP-led House, passing 215-214 on May 22 in the wee hours of the morning. No Democrats voted for the bill, and two Republicans voted against it while another voted “present.”

Soon after, as the bill made its way toward the Senate, Republicans who voted for it began expressing regrets about some of the contents. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, a prominent conspiracy-peddling MAGA voice, said she opposed a provision of the bill that banned regulation of artificial intelligence.

Republicans have mostly avoided direct contact with voters at town halls, hoping to avoid the backlash from the public on unpopular initiatives like cuts made by the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, but two Republicans did host events after voting for the Trump bill. That was a mistake.

Rep. Ashley Hinson of Iowa was drowned out by boos in her mostly Republican district after she said she was “proud” to vote for the legislation, and one constituent even called her a “fraud.” Rep. Mike Flood of Nebraska had a similarly hostile crowd at an event after the bill passed.

The NRCC’s decision to run to Fox for a puff piece about their shiny new ad campaign makes more sense in this context. Before it’s even become law, the public is opposed to the bill and passage in the Senate is not guaranteed.

Fox is simply one of the few media outlets that wouldn’t roll over laughing at the NRCC’s proposition that Democrats would face voter ire for siding with the public and opposing Trump’s “big, beautiful” mess.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.

Igor Fruman, Former Associate Of Giuliani, Will Plead Guilty

Igor Fruman, Former Associate Of Giuliani, Will Plead Guilty

(Reuters) - Igor Fruman, a former associate of Rudolph Giuliani, told a New York court hearing on Friday he will plead guilty to one criminal count in a campaign finance case.

Fruman worked to collect damaging information about Joe Biden before he became president. Giuliani, a one-time lawyer for former President Donald Trump, has not been charged with criminal wrongdoing although he is under federal investigation in the Southern District of New York.

(Reporting by Jon Stempel in New York and writing by Tom Hals in Wilmington, Delaware)

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