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Tag: connecticut elections 2014
Midterm Roundup: Scott Walker Might Be In Trouble

Midterm Roundup: Scott Walker Might Be In Trouble

Here are some interesting stories on the midterm campaigns that you may have missed on Wednesday, October 15:

• Having failed to oust Republican governor Scott Walker with an unapologetically progressive challenge in 2012, Wisconsin Democrats are trying a new tactic this year: moderation. There are signs that Democrat Mary Burke’s centrist challenge is gaining steam: She has drawn even with Walker in the latest Marquette University Law School poll, and Walker now leads by less than 1 percent in the Real Clear Politicspoll average. But Walker still has one big advantage: His Republican base is a much safer bet to turn out in big numbers than Burke’s coalition.

• Due to the latest case of Ebola in Texas, President Barack Obama canceled his planned campaign rally in Connecticut with Governor Dannel Malloy. The Democratic incumbent could use all the help he can get in his re-election fight; he leads Republican Tom Foley by just 2 percent in the poll average.

• A new CNN/ORC poll of Colorado’s Senate race finds Republican Rep. Cory Gardner leading Democratic incumbent Mark Udall, 50 to 46 percent. The poll is the latest in a series to show Gardner in a good position, and he’s now up 2 percent in the poll average. Democrats maintain that Colorado polls have historically overestimated Republicans’ chances in Colorado, and that Udall’s support may be stronger than it presently appears.

• Two new polls find Republican Joni Ernst leading Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley in Iowa’s Senate race. Quinnipiac has Ernst up 47 to 45 percent, while USA Today/Suffolk University shows her up 47 to 43 percent. The surveys push Ernst’s narrow lead in the poll average up to 1.6 percent.

• And if you’re overwhelmed by all of the predictions from various election forecasters, this handy chart from The Upshot should help you keep them straight.

Photo: Gage Skidmore via Flickr

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Poll Roundup: Scott Brown Catches Up In New Hampshire

Poll Roundup: Scott Brown Catches Up In New Hampshire

As the 2014 midterm elections draw closer, pollsters across the country will begin releasing masses of data and their predictions of who will control the House of Representatives, the Senate, and statehouses across the country. We’ll put those predictions in focus and provide a brief summary of key polls. Here’s our roundup from the week of August 17:

New Hampshire

The New Hampshire Senate race has gotten significantly closer, according to a new WMUR Granite State poll that has Republican Scott Brown in a “dead heat” with Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen. Brown only trails Shaheen by 2 percent, with a +/- 4 percent margin of error.

A CBS News/New York Timessurvey conducted last month showed Shaheen ahead by 10 points.

This drastic change could have something to do with the fact that it’s still a bit early to conduct polls in New Hampshire. The Republican primary, which Brown will most likely win, won’t be held until September 9. Only 27 percent of likely voters say they definitely know who they’re going to vote for in the general election, while 13 percent are leaning towards someone, and 60 percent are still trying to decide. But if the election were held today, 46 percent would vote for Shaheen, 44 percent for Brown, 1 percent for someone else, and 9 percent remain undecided.

Though Shaheen is popular in New Hampshire, with a 48 percent favorability rating, the pollsters think the major polling shift has to do with national conditions and President Obama’s low popularity in the state (only 37 percent of voters approve of his job performance). Meanwhile, only 36 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Brown, whose campaign has faltered throughout the summer.

The Real Clear Politicspoll average has Shaheen ahead of Brown by 6.6 percent.

North Carolina

Democratic senator Kay Hagan (D) is essentially tied with Republican challenger Thom Tillis, according to the latest USA Today/Suffolk University poll. The survey finds that 45 percent of voters support Hagan, 43 percent prefer Tillis, 5 percent would vote for Libertarian Sean Haugh, 5 percent are undecided, and 1 percent did not select a choice. But when the survey asked Haugh supporters to pick their second choice, most sided with Tillis.

The survey finds that voters have unfavorable views of both candidates, Congress, and the state legislature, where Tillis is the House Speaker. Hagan has a large lead among women and minorities, while Tillis leads among men and whites. Hagan supporters are primarily concerned about jobs and education, while Tillis backers care about the budget and national security.

“North Carolina is going to be a central battleground in the national parties’ efforts to control the Senate in the 114th Congress,” Andrew Taylor, a political scientist at North Carolina State University, told USA Today. “There are estimates of $35 million spent (by the campaigns and outside groups) and it’s just the middle of August.” That onslaught of overwhelmingly negative TV ads “fits with the sour mood North Carolina is in.”

The Real Clear Politicspoll average has Tillis ahead by one point.

Kansas

The latest survey from Public Policy Polling, which leans Democratic, has Republican governor Sam Brownback behind Democratic challenger Paul Davis by 2 percent. It finds that 39 percent of voters support Davis, 37 percent would vote for Brownback, 9 percent would vote for Libertarian Keen Umbehr, and 15 percent are still undecided. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent, which means that the candidates are essentially tied. This poll is a lot closer than previous polls, such as a recent Rasmussen Reports survey that had Davis ahead of Brownback by 10 percent.

PPP pollsters note that Umbehr is actually helping Brownback, as 65 percent of Umbehr supporters say their second choice would be Davis. If Umbehr wasn’t in the race, voters would support Davis by a 44-39 margin.

“[Republican senator] Pat Roberts and Sam Brownback are both very unpopular,” Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling, said. “Those things are combining to make it a much more interesting election year than usual in Kansas.”

The Huffington Post’s model estimate has Davis ahead of Brownback by 3.8 percent.

Connecticut

Incumbent Democratic governor Dan Malloy is behind Republican challenger Thomas Foley by 7 points, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey released Thursday. Foley has the support of 45 percent of voters, while 38 percent say they would vote for Malloy, 7 percent would vote for another candidate, and 10 percent are undecided. The survey has a +/- 4 percent margin of error.

Foley lost to Malloy in 2010 by only 6,500 votes, so November will be a rematch for the two. Foley’s been ahead of Malloy in almost every poll for the past few months, and is trying to present himself as a strong businessman who can bring “change” from Malloy, whom he blames for high taxes and poor schools.

Malloy has emphasized his swift response to the Newtown tragedy and the way he took charge during Hurricane Sandy.

The Real Clear Politicspoll average has Foley ahead of Malloy by 4.6 percent.

Photo: Talk Radio News Service via Flickr

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Poll Roundup: Are Democrats Done In Montana?

Poll Roundup: Are Democrats Done In Montana?

As the 2014 midterm elections draw closer, pollsters across the country will begin releasing masses of data and their predictions of who will control the House of Representatives, the Senate, and statehouses across the country. We’ll put those polls in focus and provide a brief summary of some key polls. Here’s a poll roundup from the week of May 4:

Montana:

According to a Hickman Analytics poll released on Thursday, Montana is shaping up to be an easy win for the GOP come November. The poll shows that Representative Steve Daines (R-MT) holding a 12-point advantage over Democratic senator John Walsh.

President Obama appointed former senator Max Baucus (D-MT) — who had announced that he would not seek re-election — as U.S. ambassador to China in December. In February, Governor Steve Bullock (D-MT) appointed Walsh, then the state’s lieutenant governor, to complete Baucus’ term. Walsh had already been the favorite for the Democratic nomination to replace Baucus. It appears that his months of incumbency have not helped him gain much traction in deep-red Montana, however.

According to the same Hickman poll, Daines holds a 48 percent approval rating across the state. That’s a 10 points better than Walsh or President Obama, who lost the state by 14 points in 2012.

Kentucky:

Polls show Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) with a wide lead over Tea Party challenger Matt Bevin in Kentucky’s May 20 Republican primary — but the general election continues to pose a challenge for the incumbent senator seeking his fifth term.

The most recent Hickman Analytics poll out of Kentucky has Senator McConnell with a narrow 1-point advantage over his Democratic challenger, Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. McConnell holds 46 percent of the vote among likely voters, versus Grimes’ 45 percent — well within the poll’s +/- 4.4 percent margin of error.

McConnell and Grimes have been running even throughout the campaign, and all signs point to a tight race until November. Although Kentucky is a reliably red state, the minority leader’s approval rating has fallen as low as 32 percent in February, and remains comparable to President Obama’s in the Bluegrass State.

Georgia:

An InsiderAdvantage poll released on Wednesday confirmed previous surveys showing former Reebok CEO David Perdue jumping ahead of his challengers for Georgia’s open Senate seat. The poll shows Perdue with a solid 8 percent advantage ahead of the May 20 primary.

Georgia’s former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) and Representative Jack Kingston (R-GA) remain virtually tied for second. InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery is not ready to count out Handel and Kingston from gaining the Republican nomination. If they secure enough of the overall vote during the primary and force a runoff, Towery is convinced they may be able to pull ahead of Perdue for the Republican nomination.

“One thing that might lower Perdue’s actual Election Day performance is his lack of a major voter turnout machine,” Towery said. “Both Handel and Kingston have natural political bases of support, and they can and will come out to vote. The next week could see several more shifts as voters now get down to actually paying attention.”

Connecticut:

Incumbent governor Dannel Malloy (D-CT) faces a close election against Republican frontrunner and 2010 challenger Tom Foley.

A Quinnipiac poll released on Friday finds Malloy and Foley in a 43-43 percent tie, with a +/- 2.4 percent margin of error. Governor Malloy has a slight image advantage, with a 46 percent favorability rating; Foley’s is just 36 percent.

Republicans have been criticizing Malloy for his handling of the state budget and taxes, and for failing to deliver a promised $55 per person tax refund. The Quinnipiac survey demonstrates this may not hold any significant weight with voters when they head to the polls, however.

“Economic issues are dragging Governor Malloy down,” said Quinnipiac University poll director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. “A bright spot for Malloy is that voters think he has strong leadership qualities and is honest and trustworthy.”

Malloy won the 2010 gubernatorial race against Foley by less than 1 percent of the vote.

Photo by “jimmywayne” via Flickr

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