Tag: general election
Nearly Half Of Sanders Supporters Say They’ll Refuse To Support Clinton In The General Election

Nearly Half Of Sanders Supporters Say They’ll Refuse To Support Clinton In The General Election

Published with permission from Alternet.

Despite attempts by establishment Democrats to unify the party ahead of the general election, an astonishing poll out today by Bloomberg Politics shows almost half of Bernie Sanders supporters say they would not support Hillary Clinton in the general election.

Fifty-five percent of voters who supported Sanders in the primary say they’ll vote for the former Secretary of State, while over a fifth—22 percent—of Sanders supporters claim they will cast their ballot for Republican nominee Donald Trump. Eighteen percent say they plan to vote for the Libertarian choice, Gary Johnson.

This poll comes two weeks after Clinton became the presumptive nominee. Sanders, who promised to “support” Clinton and vowed to “do everything in my power” to defeat Trump,” has yet to endorse the former Secretary of State. He has previously said it’s “incumbent” upon Clinton to make the case to his millions of supporters, “who do not believe in establishment politics or establishment economics,” and who may view Clinton’s Wall Street donors as a serious liability.

Indeed, of the dozen people interviewed by Bloomberg Politics in conjunction with the poll, many cited their perception of Clinton’s hawkish pragmatism and corporate ties as the main reasons they refuse to support the candidate. Some insist nothing could change their minds.

“There’s zero percent chance that Hillary Clinton could ever get my vote,” Baltimore resident Perry Mitchell told Bloomberg. “She’s a corporate candidate. I don’t vote for corporate candidates. I don’t do the lesser of two evils.”

But other voters, including 27-year-old Sanders supporter Albert Arevalo, recognize the alternative to Clinton is unacceptable.

“A true Bernie fan would be stupid to not vote for a Democrat,” Arevalo said. “By being ignorant and not voting you are electing a racist troll.”

It’s possible that a Sanders endorsement of Clinton would sway some voters, though the Bloomberg Politics poll shows only 5 percent of Sanders voters say they would vote for the presumptive nominee even if he endorses her. And some die-hard Sanders supporters like Ethan Winnett, 31, say endorsing Clinton would be “a betrayal of all his principles.”

“She’s become everything that we’re against,” Winnett told the New York Times, adding “if we get Trump, then we’ve gotten the country we deserve.”

“It’s not the fault of the Bernie Sanders supporters,” Winnett claimed. “It’s the fault of the Democrats for choosing Hillary Clinton.”

Photo: U.S. Democratic presidential candidates Senator Bernie Sanders and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton talk before the start of the first official Democratic candidates debate of the 2016 presidential campaign in Las Vegas, Nevada October 13, 2015. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson

5 Reasons Trump Is The Worst Candidate In Modern History

5 Reasons Trump Is The Worst Candidate In Modern History

The 2016 Democratic primary is historic in a good way.

For the first time ever — especially if you don’t count Michigan’s votes in the 2008 Democratic primary, which you shouldn’t — a woman is leading both the delegate count and the popular vote in pursuit of her party’s presidential nomination. Meanwhile, we’ve also seen the most popular insurgent campaign on the left since 1972, led by a candidate who happens to be Jewish.

The 2016 Republican presidential primary is also historic, and not just because of the best performance ever by a Latino candidate. The GOP primary has been defined by the emergence of the most unpopular major party candidate in modern American history.

Donald Trump certainly has some devoted fans, those who flocked early on to his casual racism and to the 21st century prosperity gospel of crushing the “losers” many aging Americans fear they, and we, have become. But Trump’s popularity is almost entirely limited to people who always vote Republican anyway, and it seems to have magically turned off nearly everyone else.

As Trump barrels towards his party’s convention and possible nomination, he has vaguely promised to be more “presidential” — a pledge he’s always one tweet from a white nationalist past violating.

Now, his candidacy is testing new lows, eroding the few norms remaining that have made the longest election cycle in the world bearable.

Here are five reasons that Donald Trump is the worst candidate in recent memory; a candidate who will only get worse if he gets his party’s nomination — when the Republican machine is forced to call him the new Reagan.

  1. Extraordinarily unpopular with exactly the groups that the GOP must win over.
    You don’t have to be a polling genius to figure out that the GOP’s easiest path to the White House is through improving its abysmal performance with minority voters. If you’ve been conscious at all for the last year, you know this birther’s talent for alienating minority groups is matched only by former KKK leader David Duke, who previously was the least popular presidential candidate in modern history. Greg Sargent explored the depth of the billion-dollar baby’s troubles: “Trump is viewed unfavorably by 67 percent of Americans overall; 75 percent of women; 74 percent of young voters; 91 percent of African Americans; 81 percent of Latinos…”
  2. Less popular with white voters than Mitt Romney.
    Trump could make up for his dismal showing among minorities by improving on Romney’s record with white voters, which was one of the best performances by a Republican since 1988. But Sargent’s list continues: “…73 percent of college-educated whites; 66 percent of white women; and 72 percent of moderates.” Romney actually won college-educated whites and white women in 2012 even as he lost overall by 5 million voles.
  3. So divisive and reckless he forces policymakers to correct him.
    Trump’s embrace of torture, war crimes, and revoking the free travel of Muslims has thrilled primary voters and forced people who actually protect America for a living to distance themselves from his loathsome posturing. Trump’s spew about destroying the NATO alliance, speeding up nuclear proliferation, and reversing any attempt to limit climate change goes beyond even the absurd jingoism of Ted Cruz — it’s a purposeful attempt to factionalize the Republican Party. No one has any idea how Trump would lead as president, because Trump has no idea how to lead. That’s why experts see him as a threat to global peace on par with jihadism.
  4. Casually threatening his own party with violence.
    Even the violence at Trump’s rallies has purposeful menace. Again and again, he and his supporters have vaguely threatened violence if he isn’t awarded his party’s nomination, even if he hasn’t secured the 1,237 delegates necessary to do so. At worst, this is a hint of a pseudo-putsch to overthrow an established democratic process, and an ominous warning of how Trump would govern. At best, it’s his attempt to create an escape hatch from a general election that polls show him losing badly.
  5. So lacking in integrity that campaigning instantly devolves into name-calling and posturing.
    Trump’s campaigning is filled with cartoonish promises and an absolute unwillingness to commit to any firm characterization of his beliefs. His entire campaign is based on him being the best at everything and capable of redeeming America simply based on his greatness. He’ll hire the best people and fix everything, though he’s getting worked over in the GOP delegate-selection process by Ted Cruz and he seems to pick surrogates who either intentionally or accidentally make a strong case against his candidacy. His lack of commitment to any coherent philosophy and his willingness to traffic in innuendo and outright slurs give the campaign the dignity and weight of a debate with your aunt’s second ex-husband on Facebook. This may be the level of discourse the GOP deserves for lacking the immune system to expel this harmful parasite from our democracy. But all of America is suffering for it.

Photo: Flickr user Gage Skidmore.

Nominating Trump Would Be An Electoral ‘Bloodbath’: ‘Weekly Standard’

Nominating Trump Would Be An Electoral ‘Bloodbath’: ‘Weekly Standard’

We’ve written a lot recently about Donald Trump’s poor prospects in the general election, should he become the Republican nominee: he motivates Muslims and Latinos to register to vote (against him), he’s repulsive to Mormons and others who value religious liberty, and the international community would consider his success a complete disaster — something we’ll surely hear more about as this cycle rolls on.

On top of all that, Trump’s electoral strategy — essentially, it’s just “bring out angry, disengaged conservatives to the polls” — forgets the fact that the vast majority of voters are some combination of young people, minorities, and women, most of whom find him entirely unelectable.

It’s not just us lefties ranting about how bad Donald is for our politics, though. After all, the #NeverTrump movement started with conservatives on Twitter who swore they would never support Trump as their party’s standard-bearer, and has since become a slogan for anti-Trump activists of all stripes.

Take conservative outlet The Weekly Standard, whose Trump coverage is particularly bleak. In an episode of their wonderful near-daily podcast on Monday, staff writer and number cruncher Jay Cost laid out his forecast for Trump’s general election chances, and they’re not pretty. I’ll let Cost explain, in one of the best electoral math rants I’ve heard in a while:

Let me state flatly and unequivocally that if Donald Trump is the nominee, Hillary Clinton’s floor in the electoral college is 400 votes. That’s the floor, number one. Number two, kiss the Senate goodbye. I mean, it’s not even going to be a close call. It will be a bloodbath. Number three, and this is a little more controversial at this point, but I would give the Republicans no better than 40 percent odds hold the House of Representatives.

This guy is an abject disaster for the Republican Party in November, there is no other way to put it. And the notion that he’s going to bring in some tranche of voters is just a complete fiction, for two reasons: number one, there aren’t enough of them, okay?

I live in Western Pennsylvania. I live right near places that, up until very recently, were voting Democratic. And yeah, can Trump bring some new voters in from Beaver County? Yeah, maybe he can. But I’m telling you what, I live in Butler County, which has been voting Republican since 1856, and he’s going to get killed in Butler County. He is going to get killed in the Cranberry Township suburbs in Butler County. Because people are going to look at him and they are going to think, “No Way.”  You watch, suburban women in Cranberry Township are going to bolt [from] him in droves. And the same thing’s going to happen… replicate that times 100 in the Philadelphia suburbs. It’s going to be an absolute slaughter.

And I think that he can hold the line, maybe, in the South. I see him winning Mississippi and Alabama, and maybe Louisiana. I think he loses Georgia, I think he loses North Carolina. But I think… that’s only one area where the Republican Party is strong. You go to the Great Plains, right… So the Great Plains starts with Texas and then goes up to the Canadian border, and then it goes west up though Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah. He is going to punk out all through that region. These people want nothing to do with this guy. Maybe they’ll vote for him over Hillary Clinton, because they find Hillary Clinton so objectionable, but he is not going to win those states by anything approaching a solid margin.

If you want a view of what Trump looks like on election day, I think the best map you can look at is probably the 1928 map between Al Smith and Herbert Hoover. And Herbert Hoover massacred Al Smith. It is going to be an absolute, total bloodbath for Republicans. It will give the Democrats not only control of the White House and the Senate, but very possibly the House of Representatives.

 

That 1928 electoral map is about as one-sided as Trump’s electoral predictions get. I can’t say I’d look forward to such a lopsided win, mainly because I don’t want to think about the type of politician who will be able to capitalize on disappointed Trump voters (just as Trump spoke to disaffected Tea Partiers). Still if it means dealing a serious blow to the darkest corners of Trump’s twisted rhetoric, I’m all for it:

1928 electoral map

Photo: Wikimedia Commons.

Donald Trump Mobilizes Hispanic Voters… Against Donald Trump

Donald Trump Mobilizes Hispanic Voters… Against Donald Trump

From the start, Donald Trump spoke and acted like a Republican presidential candidate who wanted to lose. That strategy hasn’t worked too well in the Republican primaries, but Trump’s open racism makes him a nearly-unelectable general election nominee, especially among Hispanic voters.

As it stands, Hispanics represent the largest minority populations in the United States. With over 27.3 million newly-eligible Hispanic voters set to cast ballots this year for the first time, it should come as no surprise that this group has the potential to sway the entire election, particularly in swing states.

Historically, though Hispanics comprise a very large percentage of the U.S. population, they have a relatively low voter turnout. In February, the Center for Latin American, Caribbean, and Latino Studies (CLACLS) found that, although 28 million Latinos were eligible to vote, only 48 percent cast a ballot in 2012.

But if history is any indication, this election could mark a major turning point in that trend.

In 1994, California Governor Pete Wilson, sponsored an initiative to restrict immigrants and their children from enjoying public education and health care. The proposition failed after many Latinos went to the polls to vote against it.

In 2012, Arizona politicians tried to introduce legislation to limit Latinos’ civil liberties through increased racial profiling. In the wake of the xenophobic bill’s passage, many grassroots organizations hosted voter drives. In fact, according to the grassroots organization Promise Arizona in Action, 11,975 Latinos in Arizona went to the polls to vote against the legislation, which represented a 28 percent increase compared to 2008.

In August of last year, according to a Rasmussen Reports telephone survey, 70 percent of potential Republican voters believed that a wall should be built along the U.S.-Mexican border, and 92 percent of those respondents support large-scale deportation efforts.

Recently, in Indiana, an elementary school student was publicly bullied at a school basketball game. Throughout the game, students at a predominantly white school chanted “Build the wall” as they held up pro-Trump signs to distract the other, primarily-Latino team.

In Northern Virginia, a student was told that he would be “sent home” when Trump becomes president.

In Boston, Knicks player Jose Calderon was heckled by Celtics fans who chanted “Go back to Mexico” and “build a wall.”

According to the Public Religion Research Institute’s “American Values Survey,” 56 percent of respondents believed that Hispanics face “a lot of discrimination” in America. However, that average belies a partisan split: only 42 percent of Republicans believe Hispanics face a disproportionate amount of discrimination, compared to 68 percent of Democrats.

As Donald Trump has made clear, 2016 will be a landmark year for racism in our electoral process. But Trump’s brand of anti-immigrant xenophobia cuts both ways. Turnout among white voters may increase, but they’re far outnumbered.

In fact, Mr. Trump’s comments have inspired political donors like George Soros to launch the“Immigrant Voters Win” PAC, a $15 million initiative to mobilize Latinos in swing states to register to vote. Univision has launched their own voter registration initiative as well, with a goal of registering 3 million new Latino voters.

Florida offers a valuable case study in how this could all play out for Donald Trump, should he be his party’s nominee. According to the Pew Research Center,

Among all Floridians, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in 2016. This is due in part to Hispanics, who accounted for 88% of growth in the number of registered Democrats between 2006 and 2016. During this time, the number of Hispanic registered voters increased by 61%, while the number of Hispanics identifying as Democrats increased by 83% and those having no party affiliation increased by 95%. The number of Hispanic Republican registered voters has grown too – but much more slowly (just 16%).  

In 2014, a study from the Pew Hispanic Center showed that 62 percent of Latinos nationwide support Democratic candidates. According to the CLACLS, the relative surge of Latino voters can help decide election winners in swing states like Florida and Pennsylvania.

So, sure, Donald Trump won Florida. He also won Nevada — “even among Latinos!”

That is, among Latino Republican primary voters.

In Florida, according to Fortune, relatively few Latino Republicans came to vote and only 7 percent of the Latinos who did vote favored Trump.

The Nevada caucuses showed similarly unimpressive results: the Washington Post reported afterwards that, for all of Trump’s talk, he only won 2 percent of eligible Latino voters, “because there aren’t many Latino Republicans and because turnout in Nevada’s caucuses is very small.”

Surprise: Donald Trump knows how to twist statistics to say whatever he wants them to say. But that doesn’t change reality — 80 percent of Hispanics have a negative view of Donald Trump. And yes, their voices will be heard in November.

Photo: Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump brings up a Latino member of the audience as he speaks during a campaign event in Tucson, Arizona March 19, 2016. REUTERS/Sam Mircovich