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Tag: illinois elections 2014
Midterm Roundup: Grimes Pulls Ahead In Kentucky?

Midterm Roundup: Grimes Pulls Ahead In Kentucky?

Here are some interesting stories on the midterm campaigns that you may have missed on Monday, October 6:

• After weeks of polls suggesting that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) was pulling ahead of Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes, a new Courier-Journal/SurveyUSA poll reaches the opposite conclusion. It finds Grimes leading McConnell among likely voters, 46 to 42 percent. That result is within the margin of error, but represents a 6-point shift from the August edition of the poll. A startling 57 percent of respondents said that after 30 years in office, it’s time for McConnell to be replaced. Still, the minority leader is up 4.2 percent in the Real Clear Politics poll average.

• A Loras College poll released Monday finds Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst deadlocked at 42 percent in Iowa’s Senate race—12 percent remain undecided, suggesting that the race could still tip either way. Ernst leads by just 1.9 percent in poll average for the crucial race, which could determine which party controls the Senate.

• A new round of NBC News/Marist Senate polls contained some good news for Democrats. In Iowa, Ernst leads Braley by 2 percent, within the margin of error. But in North Carolina, incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan leads Republican challenger Thom Tillis by 4 percent, roughly equal to her 3.7 percent lead in the poll average. And in Kansas, Independent Greg Orman leads incumbent Republican Pat Roberts by 10 percent, pushing his lead in the poll average up to 5.2 percent. Orman has said that he will caucus with whichever party holds the majority — but he could switch allegiances later in his term.

• Most Democrats on the ballot aren’t eager to showcase their ties to President Obama — but Illinois governor Pat Quinn is an exception. On Monday, his campaign released an ad starring First Lady Michelle Obama, who explains why “Barack and I are casting our votes for our friend, Pat Quinn.” Quinn leads Republican Bruce Rauner by 1.5 percent in the poll average.

• And if you have been closely tracking the 2014 campaign, you are in the minority. According to the latest numbers from the Pew Research Center, just 15 percent of Americans are following the midterm campaigns very closely — less than half the number that has been closely monitoring the Ebola outbreak or the U.S. military campaign against ISIS.

Photo: UFCW International Union via Flickr

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Could A Four-Second Mistake Cost A Candidate Thousands Of Dollars?

Could A Four-Second Mistake Cost A Candidate Thousands Of Dollars?

By Nathan L. Gonzales, CQ Roll Call

WASHINGTON — A disclaimer may seem like a rote few seconds in a campaign ad, but failing to follow the specific guidelines could have costly consequences for a candidate.

On Sept. 16, former Rep. Bobby Schilling (R-IL) aired a 30-second ad titled “How Could You?” that accused Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos of cutting benefits for military veterans. Democrats promptly sent a letter to television stations in Illinois’ 17th District, taking issue with the disclaimer on Schilling’s ad and arguing the Republican forfeited his right to the lowest unit charge for the remainder of the race.

According to the FEC, disclaimers can be conveyed one of two ways:

A full-screen view of the candidate making the statement or a “clearly identifiable photographic or similar image of the candidate” that appears during the candidate’s voice-over statement.

The communication must also include a “clearly readable” written statement that appears at the end of the communication “for a period of at least four seconds” with a “reasonable degree of color contrast” between the background and the disclaimer statement.

The Schilling ad appears to meet those requirements.

But there is a separate set of disclaimer guidelines in the Communications Act of 1934, amended by the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (the so-called McCain-Feingold bill), and regulated by the FCC.

Here are the relevant FCC guidelines, if a candidate’s ad mentions his or her opponent:

A candidate meets the requirements of this subparagraph if, in the case of a television broadcast, at the end of such broadcast there appears simultaneously, for a period no less than 4 seconds —

(i) a clearly identifiable photographic or similar image of the candidate; and

(ii) a clearly readable printed statement, identifying the candidate and stating that the candidate has approved the broadcast and that the candidate’s authorized committee paid for the broadcast.

The provision was apparently put in place to hold candidates more accountable for airing negative ads and to prevent candidates from putting the disclaimer first, airing a nasty attack, and then preventing viewers from knowing the source.

The initial Schilling ad appears to meet the second part of the guidelines. But it was missing the first part, because the written disclaimer at the end appears simultaneously with video and audio of military veterans, instead of Schilling.

“The bottom line is that, at the time of the complaint, the ad was going off the air anyway,” said Rex Elsass, whose firm, The Strategy Group for Media, produced the spot. In the middle of last week, the Schilling campaign “switched traffic,” the campaign term for changing ads, and the disclaimer on the new ad, “Spin,” was slightly different. The written disclaimer at the end is accompanied by a “postage stamp” photo of the candidate.

So what’s the big deal? This particular disclaimer issue has the potential for serious financial consequences for Schilling because it occurred within 60-day window before the election.

“(B)obby Schilling has forfeited his entitlement to the lowest unit charge for the duration of the campaign,” attorney Mike Halpin wrote in a Sept. 17 letter to station managers on behalf of the Bustos campaign. “From now through the day of the general election, your station must charge Bobby Schilling and Bobby Schilling for Congress the same rate for broadcast time that it charges non-political advertisers for comparable use.”

The challenger was already facing a significant cash disadvantage in the race and can ill afford to spend more than necessary for his ads. Through the end of June, Schilling raised $666,000 and had $500,000 in cash on hand. Bustos raised nearly $2 million and had $1.5 million in the bank at the same time. The third quarter ended on Sept. 30, but reports aren’t due until Oct. 15. The rate for non-candidate groups tends to be at least twice the rate for candidates during the heat of the campaign season.

“It’s not a fixable thing,” according to an attorney who specializes in FCC law. “Once a candidate does it, it’s a fatal blow. You’ve screwed yourself for the rest of the campaign.” The challenge for Democrats is that there isn’t a clear enforcement mechanism. And even though a candidate is not “entitled to” the lowest unit charge doesn’t mean the station is required to stop offering it to them.

Station managers take complaint letters seriously, according to two sources familiar with the process. Usually, the first step is to approach the original campaign for a response. Then stations and their counsel decide whether the ad is compliant or not.

But what happens if the station declines to force candidates to pay more after an alleged violation? In the past, a party has filed a complaint with the FEC charging that the station is providing an illegal corporate contribution to the candidate through savings on ad buys. Thus far, that tactic hasn’t gotten very far.

For example, in 2004, Missouri Democrat Nancy Farmer’s campaign alleged that GOP Sen. Kit Bond’s campaign was no longer eligible for the lowest unit charge because of a faulty disclaimer and filed a formal complaint against Missouri Broadcasters Association. The FEC concluded that a broadcaster’s decision to offer Bond the lowest unit charge under these circumstances did not result in an in-kind contribution and found no violation of any disclaimer requirement over which the FEC had jurisdiction. The commission has deadlocked in other, similar instances, according to multiple attorneys.

But just the threat of an FEC complaint could be effective. Some stations might choose to relent rather than litigate an official FEC complaint, which could cost at least $50,000 in legal fees.

But according to Elsass, the potential penalty is irrelevant. “We are buying at a higher rate than the lowest unit rate anyway,” the consultant explained. For him, the goal is to find the “effective selling rate,” or the lowest cost for an ad that won’t get preempted by higher paying advertisers during the most desirable time slots.

It remains to be seen if and how the Bustos campaign will push the issue. But with just five weeks to go before Election Day, it seems unlikely the slow-moving FEC would come out with an opinion that would have an impact this year. It looks like the Schilling campaign may have gotten away with that looks like a sloppy mistake.

Screenshot: YouTube

Midterm Roundup: Another New Low In Colorado

Midterm Roundup: Another New Low In Colorado

Here are some interesting stories on the midterm campaigns that you may have missed on Monday, September 29:

• Even in the shameless context of opposition research, this is startling: Republicans are circulating an out-of-context video of Senator Mark Udall (D-CO), in an apparent effort to convince voters that he is a 9/11 truther.

• According to a new Nielsen Brothers poll, Independent candidate Larry Pressler is gaining ground in South Dakota’s Senate race. Republican Mike Rounds now leads with 39 percent, followed by Democrat Rick Weiland at 26 percent, and Pressler at 24 percent. If Weiland dropped out, Pressler — who served three terms in the U.S. Senate as a Republican — would be virtually tied for the lead. Rounds still leads by double digits in the Real Clear Politics poll average.

• Two new CNN/ORC polls have good news for Democratic senators. In North Carolina, incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan leads Republican challenger Thom Tillis among likely voters, 46 to 43 percent. Hagan is up 3.5 percent in the poll average, and has led in every public survey this month. In Louisiana, Democrat Mary Landrieu leads Republican Bill Cassidy, 43 to 40 percent. That lead reverses a negative trend for Landrieu — she trails by 5 percent in the poll average — but would still leave her short of the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff.

• Massachusetts attorney general Martha Coakley, whom former senator Scott Brown infamously upset in the 2010 special election for Senate, may be collapsing again. Two new polls find that her lead in Massachusetts’ gubernatorial race has evaporated; she leads Republican Charlie Baker by 1 percent in a Western New England University poll, and the candidates are deadlocked at 43 percent in a Suffolk University poll.

• And although most Democrats would rather avoid President Obama on the campaign trail, Illinois governor Pat Quinn is apparently happy to have his help. The president and his wife will both stump for Quinn before Election Day, in an effort to turn around his re-election bid against Republican Bruce Rauner. Quinn trails by less than 1 percent in the poll average, although a Chicago Tribune poll showing Quinn up by 11 appears to be an outlier skewing the numbers.

Photo: Mark Udall via Flickr

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Midterm Roundup: An Attack Ad From Beyond The Grave

Midterm Roundup: An Attack Ad From Beyond The Grave

Here are some interesting stories on the midterm campaigns that you may have missed on Wednesday, September 24:

• Illinois governor Pat Quinn’s campaign is calling foul on an ad from his Republican opponent Bruce Rauner. The ad uses archival footage of late Chicago mayor Harold Washington to attack Quinn, in a clear effort to turn black voters away from the embattled Democratic incumbent.

• A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll finds Democratic senator Mark Pryor leading Republican Rep. Tom Cotton in Arkansas’ Senate race, 45 to 43 percent. Notably, the poll suggests that Obamacare is helping Pryor: 50 percent of voters who consider health care to be their top issue back the incumbent, while just 39 percent support Cotton. Other recent polls have shown Cotton gaining momentum, and he leads by 2.4 percent in the Real Clear Politics poll average.

• According to a new 11Alive poll, both of Georgia’s marquee races are tightening. The poll, conducted by Survey USA, finds Republican Senate candidate David Perdue leading Democrat Michelle Nunn by just one point, 46 to 45 percent. In the gubernatorial race, Democrat Jason Carter leads incumbent Republican Nathan Deal, 45 to 44 percent. The poll average has Deal up by less than 1 percent and Perdue up 3.4 percent.

• Florida’s gubernatorial race looks like a tossup. The latest poll, from Quinnipiac University, finds Republican incumbent Rick Scott leading Democratic challenger Charlie Crist, 44 to 42 percent; 8 percent support Libertarian Adrian Wyllie, and 17 percent say that they could still change their minds. The candidates are deadlocked at 42.6 percent in the poll average.

• And No Labels, the bipartisan political group that pledged “to move America from the old politics of point scoring toward a new politics of problem solving,” still isn’t getting much done. Its latest strategy? Endorsing both partisan candidates in Iowa’s Senate race.

Screenshot: Bruce Rauner/YouTube

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