Tag: intelligence
Russian President Vladimir Putin

Intelligence Report Says Kremlin Agents Boosted Republicans In 2022

A newly released intelligence report indicates that the Russian government acted to “denigrate the Democratic Party” ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. The report suggests that Russia acted against Democrats because of President Joe Biden's effectiveness in unifying Western countries and creating support for Ukraine. In the process, Russia took a truly incredible action in which it traded Russian lives to protect Republican votes.

The declassified report, which is heavily redacted, does not give many details about how Russia worked behind the scenes. However, it is clear about the rationale for why both the Russian government and its proxies sought to help Republicans. “While Russian officials most likely recognized that U.S. support for Ukraine was largely bipartisan, Russian influence actors disproportionately targeted the Democratic Party,” the report concludes, “probably because Moscow blames the U.S. president for forging a unified Western alliance and for Kyiv’s continued pro-Western trajectory,

The report also indicates that China and Iran launched efforts to interfere in the election. Neither of those attempts appears to be as strongly partisan as the Russian interference. China reportedly aimed its efforts at affecting the outcome of “a handful of races.” Iran put its efforts behind decreasing confidence in American democracy, election integrity, and support for Israel.

The assessment indicates that efforts to interfere in the election increased when compared to the 2018 midterms, but did not rise to the “comprehensive, whole-of-government” effort that Russia undertook in 2016. It also concludes that a higher level of inference is expected by multiple countries during the 2024 election cycle.

In its efforts, Russia reportedly used themes designed to reduce U.S. support for Ukraine. Interestingly, efforts to shift the outcome of the election included not just establishing fake accounts on social media sites, but included enlistment of commercial PR firms and “payments to influencers.” If those influencers are named in the report, that information is hidden behind the black bars of redactions … but it would be very interesting to know who took Vladimir Putin’s payment to help erode democracy.

The assessment notes that many of the operations don’t involve overtly false reports. Instead, Russia and other foreign governments are using issues that already generate media attention and partisan friction in America—and “amplifying” those “authentic” public narratives.

This is a technique that Russia has employed going back well into the Soviet Union period. Specifically, Russia has long played up issues of racism in the United States to increase political divisions. A Senate report in 2018 showed how Russia uses a two-pronged approach to increase racial tensions by appealing to racism on the right while deflating Democrats’ efforts to organize Black voters. In the 2016 elections, that even included running ads on radio stations with heavily Black audiences to depress turnout for Hillary Clinton.

At the time of the 2022 elections, support for Ukraine was still relatively high, even among most Republicans. However, one of ways Russia worked to change that was through pressing a message that has not been difficult to find in the news. “As the election neared, Russian influence actors amplified questions about whether US aid to Ukraine if the balance in power shifted after the midterms,” the report says.

In what may be the most astonishing connection to Russia’s efforts to influence the election and events on the ground in Ukraine, the report indicates that Russian military officials “proposed delaying the Russian withdrawal from Kherson until after the midterms to avoid giving a named political party a perceived win before the election.”

The report doesn’t indicate whether this plan was carried out. However, Election Day in 2022 was November 8. Russia announced its withdrawal from Kherson on November 9. Considering the information provided, it’s very hard to view this as a coincidence.

During those final days, Russian forces were low on supplies, Ukrainian troops were advancing, and every moment of delay exposed Russian supplies and equipment to destruction. But Russia was willing to take that risk rather than give Democrats a perceived win ahead of the election. That’s how determined they were to play a role in 2022. Considering how Republicans in Congress have completely stalled America’s assistance to Ukraine, the sacrifices Russia made in Kherson may have been their best investment since the illegal, unprovoked invasion began.

The report concludes that no foreign government is currently working to directly attack U.S. election infrastructure. The assessment notes the difficulty of undertaking any such operation in a broad sense because of the differing systems and layers of security. The intelligence agencies also believe that the warnings that the public attention following Russia’s 2016 interference is still helping to secure elections today. “We also judge that since 2016, senior-level US public and private messaging to foreign about the potential costs of tampering with election systems probably has deterred some of this activity by establishing clear redlines.”

Frustratingly, while the report says repeatedly that China “focused more on efforts to support or undermine specific candidates,” details about which candidates came in for Beijing’s attention are hidden behind redactions. However, these candidates reportedly came from both parties and were targeted for “anti-China” statements. Unsurprisingly, China’s actions included leveraging TikTok to spread social media messages.

Iran’s actions were less targeted at specific campaigns than they were reducing faith in democracy and elections while playing up social divisions (this was considered nonpartisan activity, but it would be easy to see such view efforts as objectively pro-Republican). Iran also created false “personas” on social media “masquerading as left-leaning Americans” that endorsed candidates whom Iran viewed as pro-Palestine or anti-Israel.

The 2022 elections were far from the “red wave” that Republicans were expecting. But it did deliver the House to Republicans. How much that is due to Russia’s efforts to undercut the Democratic Party—including sacrificing forces on the ground in Ukraine to prevent what could have been seen as a win for Biden—was not evaluated in the report. But it would certainly be nice to know which “influencers” got a Putin payday.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.

On Live TV, Rep. Collins Rejects Top Intelligence Job

On Live TV, Rep. Collins Rejects Top Intelligence Job

On Friday morning, hours after Donald Trump said he was considering nominating Rep. Doug Collins (R-GA) as the permanent director of national intelligence, Collins went on Fox Business to say he has no interest in the job — rejecting Trump on live television.

While Collins said it was “humbling” that Trump was considering him for the position — in which he would oversee all of the U.S. intelligence agencies — he said the director of national intelligence role was “not a job that’s of interest to me, and at this time it’s not one that I’d accept.”

Trump floated Collins’ name Thursday night aboard Air Force One, telling reporters that he was seriously considering nominating Collins for the permanent role.

Trump’s comment came after the New York Times reported that Trump fired Joseph Maguire, who had previously held the title, because Maguire briefed the House Intelligence Committee about Russia’s continued efforts to help get Trump reelected in 2020.

According to the Times, Maguire told lawmakers that Russia was even trying to interfere in the Democratic primary in an effort to help Trump.

The fact that Maguire told lawmakers this reportedly enraged Trump, who fired Maguire and placed U.S. Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell in the position in the interim. Grenell has no national intelligence experience, but he is a Trump loyalist.

Grenell, however, cannot stay in the position long-term without a permanent nomination because of vacancy rules. And because Grenell has no national security experience, his nomination might face trouble even in the GOP-led Senate.

Nominating Collins to take over the role would check a few boxes for Trump.

First, it would put an ally likely to follow Trump’s orders in a prime position to hide any Russian election interference in the 2020 election.

But it would also neutralize what’s expected to be a messy Republican primary in a Georgia Senate race.

Collins is challenging appointed GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler in a Republicans Senate primary in Georgia. And Republican strategists worry an ugly primary could cost the GOP money in a year where they are trying to protect their majority.

The Republican establishment is behind Loeffler and has been trying to force Collins out of the race to no avail.

Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation.

‘Multiple Acts’ By Trump Reportedly Triggered Whistleblower Complaint

‘Multiple Acts’ By Trump Reportedly Triggered Whistleblower Complaint

Reprinted with permission from Alternet

A report from the New York Times a Thursday afternoon deepened the mystery surrounding the suppression of an intelligence community whistleblower’s complaint, which apparently concerns President Donald Trump’s conduct.

On Wednesday night, the Washingon Post broke the news that the complaint reportedly referred to a “promise” Trump has made in communication with a foreign leader. In a letter to the House Intelligence Committee made public Thursday, the Intelligence Community Inspector General Michael Atkinson wrote that he determined the complaint is “urgent.” He said it “relates to one of the most significant and important of the [Director of National Intelligence’s] responsibilities to the American people.”

The Times’ new report actually refers not just a single call or conversation, but “multiple acts.” This “series of action … goes beyond any single discussion with a foreign leader,” it found.

Reporters Nicholas Fandos, Eileen Sullivan, Julian Barnes, and Matthew Rosenberg cited officials familiar with a briefing Atkinson gave to lawmakers about the complaint on Thursday.

However, Atkinson, a Trump appointee, has made clear that he can not reveal the substance of the complaint because acting DNI Joseph Maguire has blocked him from doing so, in consultation with the Justice Department. Atkinson disputes the facts on which Maguire rests this legal judgment. House Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff, likewise, has argued repeatedly that the law demands Maguire turn the complaint over to Congress.