Tag: loss
Analysis: Cantor Loss Proves All Politics Is Local

Analysis: Cantor Loss Proves All Politics Is Local

By Mark Z. Barabak, Los Angeles Times

The stunning primary defeat of Eric Cantor this week was, by any metaphoric measure, an enormous event: an earthquake, a volcanic explosion, a political tsunami.

But, at bottom, it also underscored some of the essential truths of politics, none more so than that old chestnut — oft-quoted and ascribed to the late ex-House Speaker Tip O’Neill — that all politics is local.

And, it might be added as a corollary, woe to the politician — whatever the office or their presumed import — who takes re-election, and by extension the people he or she represents, for granted.

Rep. Cantor of Virginia was the No. 2 Republican in the House leadership and, both logically and politically, the heir to House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio. There was even talk of Cantor someday running for president and, if his dreams were realized, becoming the first Jewish president in the country’s history.

However, that leadership position and Cantor’s unrequited ambition meant a great deal of time and travel away from his district, which left him ripe for attack by his underfunded, little-regarded challenger, college professor David Brat.

That argument — that a lawmaker has lost touch with the folks back home — is another old political standby; it produced a similarly historic upset in 1994 by Republican George Nethercutt, who ousted then-House Speaker Tom Foley in the national GOP wave.

“We need a listener,” Nethercutt repeatedly told voters, “not a speaker.”

Cantor had the burden, as do all congressional leaders, of serving dual masters, his constituents and the national needs of his party. Those are increasingly diverging in a GOP split between what might be called, for simplicity’s sake, the pragmatists and the purists.

The pragmatists believe that compromise is a necessary part of the political process. The purists, the animating force of the tea party movement, would rather lose elections than surrender what they believe to be fundamental conservative principles.

Perhaps the most important flashpoint has come over the issue of immigration. Many Republicans believe the party must join Democrats to pass some form of legalization for the millions in the country without legal documentation. Others call that amnesty, the battle cry that Brat used in the race against Cantor, who supported some easing of immigration law.

Too late did Cantor realize the strength of Brat and, more broadly, voters’ disdain for the type of give-and-take required of someone in Cantor’s position. A last minute blast of ads that underscored his concern went nowhere.

“This is the grass roots flexing its muscle and reminding members of the Republican leadership — and reminding all Republicans — that this is a very conservative party at the grass-roots and they’re angry,” said Stuart Rothenberg, who analyzes campaigns nationwide for his nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report.

“And they care more about their anger and expressing their anger and electing someone who will express their anger than they are about electing someone who gets the best deal in negotiations with the White House or the Senate.”

The ouster of Cantor was widely seen as a victory for the tea party, and it most assuredly was.

But also on Tuesday night two-term Sen. Lindsey Graham easily romped past six primary opponents in South Carolina, a pugnaciously conservative state that had been a hotbed of tea party support. Indeed, Graham was once seen as one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents facing a primary challenge this year.

He bent some, but not much, in the direction of his party’s purists. Mostly, though, Graham sneered at his tea party challengers and said he wanted not just to win, but to pound his opponents into South Carolina’s dirt, to show there was still a place for compromise inside the GOP.

The key difference was that Graham knew he had a challenge and responded forcefully, raising a small fortune by South Carolina standards, starting his campaign early and stumping tirelessly.

Two states, two vastly disparate outcomes and one fundamental truth, which illustrates why Tip O’Neill, dead for 20 years, is gone but not politically forgotten.

AFP Photo/Mark Wilson

U.S. Stocks Pare Losses In Early Trade

U.S. Stocks Pare Losses In Early Trade

New York (AFP) — U.S. stocks were flat in early trade on Thursday, paring back hefty opening losses after a batch of mixed economic data.

After 45 minutes of trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 63.77 points (0.39 percent) at 16,205.22.

The S&P 500, a broad measure of the markets, shed 9.34 (0.50 percent) at 1,843.22, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 34.48 (0.83 percent) to 4,139.10.

“Stocks are searching for direction as investors weigh economic data and the situation in Ukraine,” Wells Fargo Advisors said in a market note.

First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell last week, by 10,000 to 311,000, the Labor Department said, adding to signs of a firming jobs market.

The Commerce Department revised upward its estimate of U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter to an annual rate of 2.6 percent, matching analyst expectations.

And pending home sales fell for the eighth straight month in February, by a steeper than expected 0.8 percent, to the lowest level since October 2011, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Citigroup plunged 4.4 percent in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s rejection of its share buyback and dividend increase plans due to weakness in its results in stress tests.

Facebook dropped 2.0 percent after losing 6.9 percent on Wednesday, as investors question its $2 billion deal to buy virtual reality company Oculus.

Candy Crush maker King Digital sank for a second day after its IPO, losing 2.7 percent to $18.48, compared to the IPO price of $22.50.

Yahoo added 0.7 percent. Yahoo Japan said it would buy almost all of domestic telecom company eAccess from its parent Softbank Corp. in a deal valued at around $3.2 billion.

Twitter leaped 3.3 percent. The company on Wednesday added Facebook-style photo tagging and bumped up the number of images that iPhone users can share in a single post.

Bond prices were mixed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was unchanged from Wednesday at 2.70 percent, while the 30-year yield fell to 3.53 percent from 3.55 percent. Bond prices and yields move inversely.

©afp.com / Eric Piermont

NY-9 Race Leaves Obama Little Room To Maneuver On Israel

Though it is hardly scientific to brandish a few poll numbers about and claim to know that Democrats lost Anthony Weiner’s once-safe House seat because of Jewish Democratic disillusionment with Barack Obama’s stance toward Israel, the electoral outcome nonetheless portends further collapse of peace efforts, as Obama lacks the political room to continue to push for Palestinian claims and a two-state solution with such a toxic environment back home.

Indeed, while many are quick to point to the district’s having gone 55 percent for the president in 2008 — and argue Obama has no shot at winning a national election if he loses here next November, which may well be the case — the most important outcome of the campaign may be yet another obstacle to negotiations, the president reluctant to make noise or generate coverage for pushing Israel to make concessions when a key element of the Democratic base is threatening revolt.

The irony, of course, is that the Democratic candidate was Jewish and yet was hammered over the Israel issue by his gentile opponent. Orthodox Jews in the district also reportedly soured on him for backing gay marriage in the State Assembly.

Political prognosticators, usually on the right, have for years claimed that “this will be the election” where Jews turn on Democrats, whether for their Israel stances or other reasons.

Time and again, though, Jewish voters have shown their progressive instincts, some 78 percent pulling the lever for Barack Hussein Obama last time around.

So while predictions these voters will turn against Obama next fall are premature, what we do know is that lingering discomfort with Obama has combined with his modest pushes for Israeli concessions to effectively inculcate a narrative that the president has a “Jewish” problem. And that’s a problem not just for Americans, but those in the troubled disputed territories who desperately need a halt to violence.