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Poll Roundup: Can Arkansas Stay Blue?

Poll Roundup: Can Arkansas Stay Blue?

As the 2014 midterm elections draw closer, pollsters across the country will begin releasing masses of data and their predictions of who will control the House of Representatives, the Senate, and statehouses across the country. We’ll put those predictions in focus and provide a brief summary of key polls. Here’s our roundup from the week of May 11:

Arkansas:

According to an NBC News/Marist poll released on Monday, incumbent Senator Mark Pryor (D-AR), leads challenger Representative Tom Cotton (R-AR) by 11 points (51-40 with a +/- 3.3 percent margin of error) ahead of the November general election.

Republicans were hopeful they would be able to grab this seat to bring them closer to a majority in the upper chamber. However, Cotton’s favorability statewide has dipped since entering the race, giving Pryor a bit of an edge. According to the same NBC News/Marist poll, Pryor has a 50 percent favorability rating among registered voters versus Cotton’s 38 percent among the same group.

The general election is still six months away, but Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, told NBC News: “These are competitive states [Arkansas, Georgia, and Kentucky] as far as the general [election] is concerned. Arkansas, which was once thought to be Democrats’ most vulnerable [contest for incumbent], may not be the most vulnerable.”

Georgia:

The race to fill the seat of retiring Senator Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) has become a focus of this primary season. With a competitive collection of Republican candidates — and not one looking likely to receive more than 50 percent of the vote — chances are they are heading for a runoff election this summer.

According to Real Clear Politics the two top candidates, former Reebok CEO David Perdue, leading with 25 percent of the vote, and Representative Jack Kingston (R-GA), trailing him with 18 percent, represent the GOP’s best shots at winning this seat. Looking ahead to the primary on Tuesday, it may be a tough push for Georgia’s former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) to grab the number two spot—she’s trailing Kingston by three points with 15.5 percent.

Republicans should hope for a Perdue/Kingston runoff come July, the GOP’s best-case scenario to rival Democratic challenger Michelle Nunn, businesswoman and daughter of former Senator Sam Nunn (D-GA). Polling against Nunn, Perdue currently holds an average 3-point lead. Against Kingston, Nunn has the edge with a 42 to 39 lead.

Nebraska:

Tea Party candidate Ben Sasse made headlines this week when he defeated his conservative opponents to secure the Republican nomination for retiring Senator Mike Johanns’ (R-NE) vacant seat. Sasse won with 49 percent of the vote, 27 points ahead of his closest competitor Omaha banker Sid Dinsdale.

According to a Rasmussen Reports poll released on Friday, this seat appears to be a safe hold for the GOP. Sasse currently leads Democratic opponent David Domina 51-34 percent with a +/- 4 percent margin of error. This has narrowed from Rasumussen’s first general election poll on this race in early April — Sasse at that time held a 25-point lead over Domina.

Iowa:

The Iowa primary is still a few weeks away, but new polling data out of Loras College on Thursday finds hog-castrating state senator Joni Ernst gaining steadily on her Republican rivals.

The director of the Loras College Poll, Christopher Budzisz,  said, “State Senator Ernst has captured momentum in this race and has opened up a substantial lead, according to our polling. Whether it was from her recent notable ad campaigns and endorsements, or not, she is the clear frontrunner now.”

Ernst has 30 percent of the vote with her closest challenger, energy company CEO Mark Jacobs, trailing by double digits.

According to Real Clear Politics, as recently as early April Ernst held a mere 2- point lead over Jacobs. Thanks to a recent campaign ad that attracted national attention, Ernst has been able to increase her name recognition among voters in the Hawkeye State. With the GOP primary nearing on June 3, it’s unlikely other GOP candidates will be able to catch up.

Photo: uacescomm via Flickr

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Chamber Of Commerce Warns GOP On Immigration, Endorses Anti-Reform Senate Candidate

Chamber Of Commerce Warns GOP On Immigration, Endorses Anti-Reform Senate Candidate

Iowa Senate candidate Joni Ernst (R) scored a major, albeit unintuitive endorsement on Monday morning, when the U.S. Chamber of Commerce announced that it is supporting her campaign.

The endorsement is somewhat surprising, given that Ernst — a second-term state senator and a lieutenant colonel in the Iowa Army National Guard — is facing former Reliant Energy CEO Mark Jacobs in the Republican primary. Although Jacobs has used his extensive business experience as the basis for his campaign, the Chamber believes that Ernst is the better candidate for business.

“Joni understands that big government is an impediment to job creation, and that the best way to turn the economy around and create jobs is through pro-growth economic policies,” Chamber political director Rob Engstrom said in a statement. “The U.S Chamber is proud to stand with Joni and highlight her work removing regulatory barriers and encouraging competition in Iowa. In today’s economy, that’s the type of leadership we need in Washington.”

The endorsement also appears to be inconsistent with the group’s outspoken support for comprehensive immigration reform efforts. The Chamber has made it clear that reform is among its top legislative priorities — on Monday, Chamber president Tom Donahoe went as far as to claim that “if Republicans don’t do it, they shouldn’t bother to run a candidate in 2016” — but if Ernst joins Congress, she would be an impediment to such efforts. Ernst has declared that she is against all “amnesty” efforts, and suggests enforcing existing immigration laws instead of pursuing new legislation.

“We’ve talked a lot about the ‘Gang of Eight’ with immigration, and I don’t support that. I think that’s going in the wrong direction,” Ernst said at an Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition event in September 2013. “So first, secure the border. Second, start enforcing the laws that are on the books now.”

Ernst is not the only Republican who opposes immigration reform, but has still received a Chamber of Commerce endorsement. As Salon’s Jim Newell points out, Chamber-backed candidates Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Senator Thad Cochran (R-MS), Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA), and North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) are all outspoken opponents of reform efforts.

The Chamber is one of two major groups to endorse Ernst on Tuesday; the National Rifle Association also announced its support her for campaign. The two groups join former Alaska governor Sarah Palin and former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney in Ernst’s suddenly crowded corner.

The high-profile support could give Ernst a much-needed fundraising boost. She is currently being greatly outraised and outspent by Jacobs and the Democratic frontrunner in the race, U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley.

Despite her financial disadvantage, Ernst has been steadily rising in the polls, and now leads Jacobs by 10 percent in The Huffington Post’s polling average.

The endorsements also provide Ernst with a welcome opportunity to change the subject; for the past several days, Ernst’s campaign had been managing questions about the senator’s disastrous interview with the Des Moines Register, in which she falsely claimed that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction when the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003.

Screenshot: YouTube

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Poll Roundup: Pryor Hangs Tough

Poll Roundup: Pryor Hangs Tough

As the 2014 midterm elections draw closer, an avalanche of polling data will emerge on the key races that will decide who controls the House of Representatives, the Senate, and statehouses across the country. What follows is a brief summary of some key polls from the week of April 13:

Arkansas
Senator Mark Pryor (D-AR) is one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the nation, but polls keep finding that he’s hanging tough in his re-election battle against Republican congressman Tom Cotton.

The latest survey of the race — which was conducted by Republican firm Harper Polling, on behalf of conservative SuperPAC American Crossroads — shows Pryor and Cotton deadlocked among likely voters at 39 percent, with 30 percent undecided.

Although the poll’s sample tilts right — 48 percent of respondents self-identify as conservative, compared to 31 percent moderate and 17 percent liberal — Pryor has stronger personal ratings than his opponent. Respondents view Pryor favorably by a 42 to 37 percent margin, while they view Cotton unfavorably 39 to 31 percent.

Pryor’s approval rating is lower — 38 percent approve of his job performance, while 44 percent disapprove and 17 percent are unsure — but it greatly outpaces President Barack Obama’s 36 to 60 percent rating. This suggests that Pryor’s conspicuous efforts to distance himself from the White House may be working.

It has now been more than two months since a poll found Cotton leading Pryor. The incumbent currently holds a razor-thin 43 to 42 percent lead in The Huffington Post’spolling average.

Iowa
According to a Washington Free Beaconpoll released Monday, the Iowa’s Republican Senate primary is now essentially a two-way race between state Senator Joni Ernst and former energy executive Mark Jacobs.

The poll, which was conducted by The Polling Company Inc. and WomenTrend, finds Ernst leading Jacobs by a 23 to 20 percent margin. Four other candidates trail in the low single digits, and 40 percent are undecided. That result lines up identically to The Huffington Post’spoll average.

Both of the top candidates have a trump card that could help them score the Republican nomination. Jacobs has loaned his campaign over $1 million from his personal fortune, allowing him to outspend Ernst by a staggering 10-1 margin. Ernst has significant backing from the Tea Party activists who would play a critical role in determining the nominee at a state convention that would take place if no candidate wins 35 percent of the vote in the June 3 primary.

Whoever wins the nomination will face U.S. Representative Bruce Braley (D-IA) in the general election.

Kansas
On Wednesday, TheNew York Timesreported that outgoing Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius was considering running for Senate in her native Kansas. On Friday, a spokeswoman denied her interest. And shortly thereafter, a new poll confirmed that a Senate bid may not be a very good idea.

The survey, from Republican-leaning Rasmussen Reports, finds that incumbent Republican senator Pat Roberts would lead Sebelius 54 to 37 percent in a hypothetical matchup.

Roberts’ huge lead is to be expected; Kansas is a deeply conservative state (Mitt Romney won it by over 20 percent in the 2012 presidential election), and Sebelius is now closely linked to President Obama and the Affordable Care Act, both of which Kansans overwhelmingly dislike. Although Sebelius was very popular while she served as governor, in February a Public Policy Polling survey found that Kansans disapprove of her by a 55 to 38 percent margin.

Texas
Democrats had high hopes for state Senator Wendy Davis’ 2014 gubernatorial campaign, but the latest poll of the race suggests that the rising star is on the ropes.

A Public Policy Polling survey released Tuesday found Republican attorney general Greg Abbott leading Davis 51 to 37 percent, with 13 percent undecided. That 14-point lead is essentially unchanged from PPP’s previous poll in November, which showed Abbott up 15.

Since she rocketed to political stardom by filibustering an anti-abortion bill in June, Davis has seen her popularity erode in the Lone Star State. Just 33 percent now view Davis favorably, while 47 percent view her unfavorably and 21 percent are not sure. By contrast, Abbott is viewed favorably by 40 percent, while 27 percent view him unfavorably and 33 percent are not sure.

Abbott may be benefiting from Governor Rick Perry’s improved standing. Texas’ outgoing governor now holds a 48 to 44 percent approval rating, marking the first time that PPP has ever found him with a positive rating, and an 18-point improvement from his nadir at the end of his failed 2012 presidential bid.

Photo: uacescomm via Flickr

WATCH: Republican Senate Candidate Threatens To Castrate Congress

WATCH: Republican Senate Candidate Threatens To Castrate Congress

It took a while, but Iowa’s 2014 U.S. Senate race is finally starting to heat up.

State Senator Joni Ernst released an attention-grabbing television ad on Monday, in which she essentially threatens to castrate legislators who won’t cut spending.

“I grew up castrating hogs on an Iowa farm. So when I get to Washington, I’ll know how to cut pork,” Ernst says in the ad. “Washington’s full of big spenders. Let’s make ’em squeal.”

Ernst’s uncomfortable ad, which is her first of the campaign, began airing on TV in Des Moines on Monday. According to the Des Moines Register, the ad buy will expand in the coming weeks.

The Republican primary is still anyone’s contest; according to TheHuffington Post’spolling average, businessman Mark Jacobs leads the field at 20 percent, followed by Ernst at 13 percent, former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker at 11 percent, talk-radio host Sam Clovis at 8 percent, and attorney Paul Lunde at 3 percent. If no candidate wins over 35 percent in the June 3 primary, then the Republican nominee will be chosen via a state convention; such a scenario would likely favor a Tea Party-backed candidate like Ernst, who could consolidate support of the right-wing activists who dominate such gatherings.

Ernst’s “Squeal” ad is not the only barnyard-related story to shake up the Iowa Senate race this week. On Tuesday, video emerged of Democratic congressman Bruce Braley, the frontrunner in the race to succeed retiring Democrat Tom Harkin, criticizing Senator Chuck Grassley at a fundraiser in January.

In the video, Braley warns that if Republicans win a Senate majority, “you might have a farmer from Iowa, who never went to law school, never practiced law, serving as chair of the Senate Judiciary” Committee.

Braley’s slight drew instant condemnation from Grassley, Jacobs, and Ernst, who released a statement saying, “Bruce Braley thinks the way to suck up to Texas trial lawyers is by bashing Iowa farmers. How out of touch with Iowa can you be?”

Although Republicans clearly hope that the gaffe will be a game changer, it will take more than that to change the dynamics of the race. According to the latest poll, Braley is up double digits on each of his Republican rivals.

Screenshot: YouTube