Tag: massachusetts elections 2014
Ebola, Pandering And Courage

Ebola, Pandering And Courage

BOSTON — Seth Moulton, an Iraq veteran and Democratic congressional candidate on Massachusetts’ North Shore, has done something with little precedent in political campaigning: He was caught underplaying his war record.

You read that right: An investigation by The Boston Globe found that unlike politicians who go to great lengths to puff up their military backgrounds, Moulton, as the paper’s Walter Robinson wrote, “chose not to publicly disclose that he was twice decorated for heroism until pressed by the Globe.”

It took Robinson’s reporting to discover that Moulton had won the Bronze Star and the Navy and Marine Corps Commendation medal for valor during the battles for control of Najaf and Nasiriyah.

In a telephone interview, Moulton said his reluctance reflected a “healthy disrespect” among his comrades-in-arms for boasting about citations.

“The relative few of us who really were on the front lines don’t like to talk about it and don’t like to brag about it,” he said. “I saw a lot of heroic kids who were on the front lines … and didn’t get the recognition they deserved.”

Moulton’s story is a refreshing change of pace in a midterm election campaign short on displays of either courage or reticence. Voters are unhappy with both parties and there is no driving issue, so a play-all-the-angles approach that takes whatever story is dominating the news cycle and tries to turn it into a wedge.

Nowhere has this pattern been clearer than in the rise of public worries about Ebola and the effort by Republicans to turn fear into a closing argument.

It is normal for the party that doesn’t control the White House to be critical of how the incumbent has handled a crisis. And President Obama himself, according to The New York Times, was frustrated with aspects of the government’s handling of the episode, one reason he called on Ron Klain, the Washington veteran, to coordinate the response.

But it’s something else again to stoke alarm and to set up an unrealistic policy demand as a test of “toughness.” (Yes, those quotation marks are intended to convey the cynicism involved.) Thus did many Republicans call for a travel ban from the countries affected by Ebola, even though there are no direct flights from them to the United States. This raised the prospect of grounding connecting flights from European cities, and the administration argued that the ban would encourage people to lie about their travel history, making screening for the disease much harder.

Now, Republicans have quietly conceded how problematic a travel ban would be. So they are rallying to a new tough-sounding backup position, calling for a suspension of visas for travelers from the affected countries. Trying to answer symbolic politics with practical measures, the administration on Tuesday announced that travelers from Ebola-zone countries would be required to enter the United States through one of five airports equipped for screening.

To examine the way all this has played out in the congressional contest between Moulton and Republican Rich Tisei is to see how last-minute campaign pressures can push even independent-minded candidates to find ways of gaining a slight edge or avoiding political damage.

Tisei is one of the few socially moderate Republicans on the ballot this fall. Openly gay, Tisei got married in the summer of 2013, and boycotted the state Republican convention this year to protest the party’s conservative platform. Yet like other Republicans, he jumped on the idea of “banning flights” from countries where the disease is raging and of “quarantining people before they come into the country.”

For his part, Moulton, after initially resisting the flight ban, sought to find middle ground by declaring that “until we can get people properly screened, we may need to shut those flights down.” But in the interview, he reiterated his view that “we can’t pretend that we’re going to win this fight simply by shutting ourselves off from the rest of the world.” He also endorsed Obama’s latest move on screening. And on Wednesday, Tisei’s spokesman, Charlie Szold, said his candidate did not want a flight ban to force any interruption of aid to the affected countries to combat the disease.

One would like to hope that Ebola posturing will not be decisive in either the Moulton-Tisei race or in the larger campaign. There are signs that the issue is fading as reality catches up with the pandering. In the meantime, Moulton, who knows what courage means, could usefully bring a GI’s “healthy disrespect” to the ways our country’s politics makes problem-solving harder.

E.J. Dionne’s email address is ejdionne@washpost.com. Twitter: @EJDionne.

Screenshot: Seth Moulton and Richard Tisei debate on WBZ (Seth Moulton/YouTube)

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Midterm Roundup: Another New Low In Colorado

Midterm Roundup: Another New Low In Colorado

Here are some interesting stories on the midterm campaigns that you may have missed on Monday, September 29:

• Even in the shameless context of opposition research, this is startling: Republicans are circulating an out-of-context video of Senator Mark Udall (D-CO), in an apparent effort to convince voters that he is a 9/11 truther.

• According to a new Nielsen Brothers poll, Independent candidate Larry Pressler is gaining ground in South Dakota’s Senate race. Republican Mike Rounds now leads with 39 percent, followed by Democrat Rick Weiland at 26 percent, and Pressler at 24 percent. If Weiland dropped out, Pressler — who served three terms in the U.S. Senate as a Republican — would be virtually tied for the lead. Rounds still leads by double digits in the Real Clear Politics poll average.

• Two new CNN/ORC polls have good news for Democratic senators. In North Carolina, incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan leads Republican challenger Thom Tillis among likely voters, 46 to 43 percent. Hagan is up 3.5 percent in the poll average, and has led in every public survey this month. In Louisiana, Democrat Mary Landrieu leads Republican Bill Cassidy, 43 to 40 percent. That lead reverses a negative trend for Landrieu — she trails by 5 percent in the poll average — but would still leave her short of the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff.

• Massachusetts attorney general Martha Coakley, whom former senator Scott Brown infamously upset in the 2010 special election for Senate, may be collapsing again. Two new polls find that her lead in Massachusetts’ gubernatorial race has evaporated; she leads Republican Charlie Baker by 1 percent in a Western New England University poll, and the candidates are deadlocked at 43 percent in a Suffolk University poll.

• And although most Democrats would rather avoid President Obama on the campaign trail, Illinois governor Pat Quinn is apparently happy to have his help. The president and his wife will both stump for Quinn before Election Day, in an effort to turn around his re-election bid against Republican Bruce Rauner. Quinn trails by less than 1 percent in the poll average, although a Chicago Tribune poll showing Quinn up by 11 appears to be an outlier skewing the numbers.

Photo: Mark Udall via Flickr

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Poll Roundup: Iowa Senate Race Is ‘Deadlocked’

Poll Roundup: Iowa Senate Race Is ‘Deadlocked’

As the 2014 midterm elections draw closer, pollsters across the country will begin releasing masses of data and their predictions of who will control the House of Representatives, the Senate, and statehouses across the country. We’ll put those predictions in focus and provide a brief summary of key polls. Here’s our roundup from the week of August 24:

Iowa

The Iowa Senate race between Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley is “deadlocked,” according to the latest USA Today/Suffolk University poll. The survey has Ernst and Braley tied at 40 percent. Independent Rick Stewart has 2 percent, and the other three candidates — Bob Quast (representing the Bob Quast for Term Limits party), Libertarian Douglas Butzier, and independent Ruth Smith — each have 1 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, 15 percent of voters are still undecided. The survey has a +/- 4.4 percent margin of error.

Braley is winning 80 percent of Democrats base, while Ernst has 77 percent of the Republican base behind her. Independents split pretty evenly between the two candidates, with 39 percent supporting Ernst and 36 percent backing Braley. Braley leads among voters passionate about jobs, health care, and education, while voters concerned about the budget and national security say that they would vote for Ernst.

“If you drive north into Iowa on I-35 coming from Missouri, you’ll see a landscape full of red counties far to the left and blue counties far to the right,” Suffolk University Political Research Center Director David Paleologos said. “The poll pits Democrat Braley’s congressional district in the northeast against Ernst’s Senate district in the southwest, but the voters in between will make the difference.”

Though Ernst has made many extreme comments lately, it doesn’t seem to be hurting her campaign too much. The Real Clear Politicspoll average has her ahead by 0.2 points.

Wisconsin

A new Marquette Law School poll finds that the race between Republican governor Scott Walker and Democratic challenger Mary Burke is very close. Among registered voters, 47.5 percent would vote for Walker and 44.1 percent would vote for Burke. Another 5.5 percent say they are undecided or don’t know, and less than 1 percent would vote for someone else.

Among those who say they are definitely voting in November, however, Burke leads with 48.6 percent, while Walker has 46.5 percent, 2.5 percent are undecided, and less than 1 percent say they would vote for another candidate.

Both results are within the margin of error (+/- 3.5 percent for registered voters and +/- 4.1 percent for likely voters).

“The difference in vote between likely voters and all registered voters is a measure of the roles turnout and enthusiasm play in the election and tells us which party, at the moment, is enjoying greater intensity,” Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School poll, said.

In other words, Burke’s lead among people who say they will vote in November likely means that Democrats are currently more invested in the election.

The survey also found that Burke and Walker are tied at 45 percent when it comes to who voters think would create the most jobs. Women favor Burke, while men favor Walker.

The Real Clear Politicspoll average has the two candidates tied.

Pennsylvania

Republican governor Tom Corbett might as well just give up hope for a second term. The latest Franklin & Marshall College poll has Corbett trailing Democratic challenger Tom Wolf by a staggering 25 points (49 percent to 24 percent). There’s still a large amount of undecided voters, however (25 percent). The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent.

Only 24 percent of voters think that Corbett is doing a good job as governor, and less than half of his own party thinks that he’s done an “excellent” or “good” job. Just 26 percent of voters think that he deserves re-election. A majority of voters (61 percent) believe that the state is “off on the wrong track.”

Corbett has been heavily criticized for his drastic education cuts. He also came under fire this week for suggesting that women in particular support liquor reform because it would save them time when preparing dinner (the latest in a long string of gaffes throughout his tenure).

The Real Clear Politicspoll average has Wolf ahead by 16.6 points.

Massachusetts

For the first time in The Boston Globe’s poll of the Massachusetts gubernatorial race, Republican Charlie Baker has pulled ahead of Democrat Martha Coakley. The race is essentially tied — 38 percent support Baker and 37 percent support Coakley.

Baker’s lead is within the +/- 4 percent margin of error, but The Boston Globe’s Stephanie Ebbert notes that “it shows movement” in the race. According to Ebbert, Baker was helped this week by a Republican SuperPAC that’s started airing ads touting his experience. And John Della Volpe — the chief executive of SocialSphere Inc, which conducted the poll for The Boston Globe — attributes Baker’s lead to the fact that he’s been able to distance himself from his original ambivalent reaction to the Hobby Lobby ruling, which Democrats used against him. Baker’s favorable rating has also risen to 47 percent, compared to 41 percent who saw him favorably in August.

Coakley’s favorability has dropped 2 points since the beginning of August, from 53 percent to 51 percent. Coakley still has to win her Democratic primary in September. Though she is heavily favored to do so, she’s going to need to work to gain the support of the rest of her party once she’s past the primary. The survey shows that 48 percent of supporters of her opponent, Steve Grossman, say they would go against the party and vote for Baker over if Grossman loses the primary. Just 28 percent would vote for Coakley.

The Real Clear Politicspoll average still has Coakley ahead by 7.5 points.

Photo: Monica de Argentina via Flickr

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Midterm Poll Roundup: Can Republicans Win In New England?

Midterm Poll Roundup: Can Republicans Win In New England?

As the 2014 midterm elections draw closer, an avalanche of polling data will emerge on the key races that will decide who controls the House of Representatives, the Senate, and statehouses across the country. What follows is a brief summary of some key polls from the week of March 16:

New Hampshire
Republicans are hoping that former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown’s all-but-certain entrance into New Hampshire’s 2014 Senate race will turn the Granite State into a serious 2014 battleground, but the polls suggest that this may be wishful thinking.

According to an American Research Group poll released Monday, Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) has a comfortable 50 to 38 percent lead over Brown, with 12 percent undecided. Those numbers are similar to a recent Suffolk University/Boston Herald poll that found Shaheen up 13, and solidify the incumbent Democrat’s status as the frontrunner.

ARG also polled New Hampshire’s gubernatorial race, with similarly strong results for the Democrats. Governor Maggie Hassan leads Republican challenger Andrew Hemingway 45 to 30 percent, with 25 percent undecided — 37 percent of respondents approve of Hassan, while 25 percent disapprove and 38 percent are undecided.

Most polls find Hassan’s approval ratings to be much higher; the first-term Democrat is widely regarded as one of the most popular governors in America.

Massachusetts
The woman whom Scott Brown defeated in 2010 looks like she may have more success than her former rival in 2014. A WBUR poll released Thursday shows Massachusetts attorney general Martha Coakley leading state treasurer Steve Grossman 45 to 14 percent in the Democratic primary for governor, with three other candidates polling in the low single-digits.

Should Coakley advance to the general election, she would also hold a comfortable 41 to 26 percent lead over likely Republican nominee Charlie Baker.

Coakley should not start measuring the drapes at the governor’s office yet, however. Her strong numbers are likely fueled by her 94 percent name recognition in the Bay State, which is well above Grossman’s 60 percent and Baker’s 74 percent. In other words, it’s still far too early to declare Coakley impervious to another upset loss.

Georgia
Republicans may have gotten some good news this week, when a Survey USA poll found businessman David Perdue leading the field in Georgia’s Republican Senate primary with 29 percent. U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston placed second at 19 percent, followed by Rep. Phil Gingrey at 12 percent, Rep. Paul Broun at 11 percent, and former Georgia secretary of state Karen Handel at 10 percent. The close race makes it incredibly likely that the nomination will be decided by a runoff election.

Perdue and Kingston would almost certainly be national Republicans’ top choices to appear on that ballot, as they are considerably less likely to commit a devastating gaffe than the erratic Broun or Gingrey.

The Survey USA poll is an outlier, however; no other survey of the race has found Perdue leading the field, and The Huffington Post’s polling average of the race finds the five top candidates essentially tied in the low teens.

Montana
The first poll of Montana’s Senate race since Democrat John Walsh was appointed to fill the remainder of Ambassador Max Baucus’ term did nothing to dispute the notion that the seat is a likely Republican pickup.

According to a Rasmussen survey released Wednesday, Republican congressman Steve Daines leads Walsh 51 to 37 percent, with 9 percent undecided.

Walsh’s appointment was at least partially intended to let him run with the benefits of incumbency, but so far it doesn’t seem to have had much of an impact; the former lieutentant governor still has just 31 percent name recognition in the state he represents in Congress.

Photo: Roger H. Goun via Flickr