The stories you want. The opinions that matter.
No, thanks
Tag: oregon elections 2014
Midterm Roundup: Another Plagiarism Scandal

Midterm Roundup: Another Plagiarism Scandal

Here are some interesting stories on the midterm campaigns that you may have missed on Wednesday, September 17:

• According to the Wesleyan Media Project, Democrats are running more ads than Republicans in the key Senate races taking place in Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, North Carolina, and Virginia. That’s good news for Democrats (assuming that political ads actually make a difference, which is up for debate).

• Two new Quinnipiac polls upend the conventional wisdom in hotly contested races. In Iowa, Quinnipiac finds Republican Joni Ernst opening up a 6 percent lead over Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley among likely voters. Other polls have shown a much tighter contest; the Real Clear Politicspoll average shows Braley ahead by less than 1 percent. Similarly, Quinnipiac finds Colorado governor John Hickenlooper down 10 to Republican challenger Bob Beauprez, while the poll average has Beauprez up by just 0.5 percent. It remains to be seen whether these results are outliers, or the first indications of a major shift toward the GOP.

• Along those same lines, a new New England College poll finds Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) leading Republican challenger Scott Brown, 51 to 40 percent. Shaheen leads by just 3.8 percent in the poll average.

• Monica Wehby, the Republican Senate nominee in Oregon, apparently plagiarized her health care plan from Karl Rove’s SuperPAC, American Crossroads. Wehby was once viewed as a rising star with a chance of upsetting incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley; now, not so much.

• And Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR), the GOP challenger to Senator Mark Pryor, is showing off his softer side. Republicans presumably hope that it will go better than his last effort, in which included the freshman congressman claiming “I’m warm, damnit.”

Photo: Monica de Argentina via Flickr

Want more political news and analysis? Sign up for our daily email newsletter!

Poll Roundup: Does Wehby Have A Chance In Oregon?

Poll Roundup: Does Wehby Have A Chance In Oregon?

As the 2014 midterm elections draw closer, pollsters across the country will begin releasing masses of data and their predictions of who will control the House of Representatives, the Senate, and statehouses across the country. We’ll put those predictions in focus and provide a brief summary of key polls. Here’s our roundup from the week of June 8:

Oregon
Republicans hoped that that Dr. Monica Wehby, their nominee for U.S. Senate in Oregon, could provide a serious challenge to incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley. About five months before Election Day, however, that is beginning to seem unlikely.

On Tuesday, SurveyUSA released a poll finding Merkley crushing Wehby, 50 to 32 percent. Merkley leads Wehby among every key demographic group, and — perhaps most troubling for Republicans — the Affordable Care Act does not seem to be hurting his numbers. Wehby has largely centered her campaign around the health care law, blasting Merkley as “the deciding vote” on the law she calls “an unmitigated disaster.” According to SurveyUSA, however, these attacks are barely landing.

The ACA will be a major factor, 48 percent of voters say, while 26 percent say it will be a minor factor and 24 percent say it won’t be a factor at all. Merkley leads among those latter groups 57 to 23 percent and 71 to 12 percent, respectively. Wehby’s lead among those for whom the law is a major factor is just 48 to 35 percent — hardly enough to swing the race.

Wehby insists that she is closer than the poll suggests; on Wednesday, she shared an internal poll showing her trailing Merkley by just 2 points.

Public polling paints a different picture, however. According to The Huffington Post’s poll average, Merkley has a 13 percent lead in the race.

Mississippi
Mississippi’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate is coming down to the wire, according to a poll released Saturday. The survey, which was conducted by Democratic pollster Chism Strategies, finds state senator Chris McDaniel leading six-term incumbent Thad Cochran by a 51 to 48 percent margin. McDaniel’s lead is just within the poll’s +/- 3.3 percent margin of error.

The pollster notes that McDaniel’s numbers have recovered since they dropped in the wake of his bizarre break-in scandal. Just 1.8 percent remain undecided, so whichever candidate is able to turn out its supporters is likely to win the June 23rd runoff.

Kentucky
Kentucky’s Senate race remains a dead heat, according to the latest survey. A newly released poll from Magellan Strategies, a Republican firm, finds Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes leading Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell by a 49 to 46 percent margin, with 5 percent undecided. Grimes’ 3-point lead is barely within the survey’s +/- 3.45 percent margin of error.

The poll is the latest in a long series of surveys suggesting that the two candidates are essentially deadlocked; McConnell leads Grimes by just over 1 percent in The Huffington Post’s poll average.

Texas
While Grimes is hanging tough in Kentucky, another rising Democratic star appears to be falling short in Texas.

A University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll released Monday finds that Texas attorney general Greg Abbott (R) leads Democratic state senator Wendy Davis 44 to 32 percent in the Lone Star State’s gubernatorial race — 17 percent are undecided.

The poll is the latest in a string of surveys to show Abbott comfortably ahead; he leads Davis by 14 percent in The Huffington Post’s poll average, and only one poll this year has shown the Democrat within single digits.

Davis’ campaign may be starting to feel the heat; on Wednesday, it replaced its campaign manager.

Screenshot: Monica For Congress/YouTube

Want more political news and analysis? Sign up for our daily email newsletter!

GOP Keeps Tea Party At Bay In Primary Races

GOP Keeps Tea Party At Bay In Primary Races

By Michael A. Memoli and Lisa Mascaro, Tribune Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON — Incumbent Republicans cruised to victory in key primary elections Tuesday, offering fresh evidence that the party’s establishment wing has successfully neutralized outside conservative groups that have vexed congressional leaders since the rise of the Tea Party.

In Kentucky, Senator Mitch McConnell, the party’s leader in the Senate, easily won renomination for a sixth term over challenger Matt Bevin, who had hoped to tap into Tea Party activists’ distrust of GOP leaders in Washington. McConnell was leading the Louisville businessman 60 percent to 36 percent late Tuesday with nearly all of the state’s precincts reporting.

McConnell now faces what will probably be a more significant challenge in the general election from Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, who glided to the Democratic nomination.

In Idaho, as in Kentucky, an effort by conservative groups to unseat an establishment ally of House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-OH) fizzled. Rep. Mike Simpson defeated his Tea-Party-funded challenger, Bryan Smith, with help from a late infusion of outside spending from groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Another key GOP primary was the open Senate seat in Georgia, where the crowded field ensured a July runoff. The most conservative candidates, however, failed to advance.

Tuesday’s balloting in six states marked the busiest primary election date yet this year, and the latest to produce disappointing results for Tea Party forces. Candidate Ben Sasse’s victory in last week’s Nebraska Senate primary stands as one of the few Tea Party successes this year, but came in an open-seat contest in which multiple candidates had claimed the conservative mantle.

Despite the early successes in primaries, Republican leaders were reluctant to openly celebrate their victory over the conservative groups they’ve criticized in the past. Boehner told reporters Tuesday that the Tea Party had “brought great energy to our political process.”

“There’s not that big a difference between what you all call the tea party and your average conservative Republican,” he said.

McConnell’s ability to outmaneuver his challenger was emblematic of GOP leaders’ success thus far in curtailing the influence of conservative groups. Considered one of his party’s most astute political strategists, he saw firsthand the Tea Party at its strongest in the 2010 campaign, when Rand Paul easily defeated McConnell’s handpicked GOP candidate to win Kentucky’s other Senate seat.

The race between McConnell and Grimes promises to be one of the most expensive of the midterm campaign. It will pit Grimes’ call to replace the man Democrats have called “Senator Gridlock” in Washington against the unpopularity of the Obama administration in the conservative, coal-rich state.

McConnell’s pitch relies heavily on his potential status as the next majority leader, while casting the 35-year-old Democrat as simply another vote to keep President Barack Obama’s party in control of the chamber.

Republicans need a net gain of six seats in November to reclaim majority status for the first time since 2007. If they do so and McConnell succeeds, he would be in line to replace Nevada Democrat Harry Reid as majority leader.

In Georgia, David Perdue, a millionaire former business executive, won the most votes to claim a spot in the July runoff against Jack Kingston, a Savannah-area congressman. Perdue benefited from his status a newcomer to politics, his deep pockets and his famous family — he is the cousin of a former governor.

Karen Handel, the former secretary of state, came in third; behind her were the most conservative candidates, Paul Broun and Phil Gingrey, both members of Congress. The seat was open due to the retirement of Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss.

Kingston’s early missteps — he suggested schoolchildren should work for their lunches — were smoothed by a pivotal endorsement from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

The eventual Republican winner will face Michelle Nunn, who easily won the Democratic primary. The political novice who also has a famous family name — her father is the still-popular former Senator Sam Nunn — faces an uphill climb in November, but she hopes to take advantage of demographics that are shifting the red state toward purple. Georgia and Kentucky are widely seen Democrats’ only chances to pick up a Republican-held seat in the fall.

To the west in Oregon, Republicans were buoyed by the victory of Monica Wehby, a pediatric neurosurgeon, who was seen as the candidate with the most potential to challenge first-term Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley.

In Pennsylvania, wealthy businessman Tom Wolf secured the Democratic nomination to face off against Republican Tom Corbett, considered one of the nation’s most vulnerable sitting governors.

Rep. Bill Shuster, a key committee chairman, was expected to prevail in his own primary fight, while on the Democratic side, a comeback attempt by former Rep. Marjorie Margolies fell well short in an open-seat race. Margolies, who lost her Philadelphia-area congressional seat in 1994 after casting a decisive vote to pass President Bill Clinton’s budget plan, is now the mother-in-law of the Clintons’ only child, Chelsea.

Photo: Hyosub/Shin/Atlanta Journal-Constitution/MCT

Controversy Hampers Rising GOP Star Wehby As Primary Approaches

Controversy Hampers Rising GOP Star Wehby As Primary Approaches

Republicans in Oregon were hopeful that Salem-based pediatric neurosurgeon Monica Wehby could give Democrats a run for their money in the state’s 2014 Senate race. But the spotlight that has shone on the first-time candidate may have them rethinking whether Wehby is the formidable candidate they hoped for.

On Friday, Politico reported that Wehby was accused of stalking her ex-boyfriend Andrew Miller in April 2013. According to a police report, Miller claimed that Wehby entered his home without permission and even harassed his employees. He claims he now regrets calling the police, and that he and Wehby remain friends to this day.

Complicating matters, Miller’s company, Stimson Lumber, is one of the Wehby campaign’s primary donors. Miller also teamed up with Nevada businessman and sex hypnotherapist Loren Parks to create “If He Votes That Way in Salem, Imagine What He Will Do in Congress,” a committee directly dedicated to challenging Wehby’s primary opponent, state representative Jason Conger. The team privately funded attack ads against Conger, with Miller providing over $30,000 and Parks offering $70,000.

This prompted the Democratic Party of Oregon to file a formal complaint with the Federal Election Commission. The complaint alleges that given the relationship between Wehby and Miller, it is impossible that she did not know about their plan to release the ad. Whether Wehby was aware of the ads prior to their release, or if Miller — a private donor — is privy to campaign strategy, she may be in violation of election law and could be required to pay a fine.

Wehby’s troubles don’t end there. On Monday, she appeared before a judge to defend surgeries she performed on children under the care of Katherine Parker. Parker is accused of 18 counts of criminal mistreatment or first-degree assault for convincing doctors her children needed unnecessary surgery.

Conservative-leaning groups Wenzel Strategies and the Taxpayer Association of Oregon PAC both released polls in early May showing Wehby leading Conger by 21 and 20 points, respectively. But a mid-April survey from Democratic pollster Benenson Strategy Group found Conger leading by 2 percent, with most Oregon Republicans undecided.

Since Oregon employs a vote-by-mail system, many ballots were mailed and returned before the negative accusations against Wehby broke. But even if the incidents create only a minor backlash in the primary election, they could hurt her already difficult bid to unseat the Democratic incumbent, Senator Jeff Merkley.

In a general election matchup, a Daily Caller poll finds Wehby ahead of Senator Merkley 45-41 percent. Alternatively, Benenson shows Merkley leading by a 20 percent margin.

In any case, unseating the incumbent will be a challenging task in Oregon, where voters haven’t elected a Republican in a statewide election in 12 years.

Screenshot: Monica For Congress YouTube

For more midterm election news, sign up for our free daily newsletter.