“Headed into the midterms with lessons learned from 2024, HMP is today launching a 2026 Recruitment Fund—which will allow us to recruit and prepare potential candidates earlier than ever,” the group said in a news release. “With Republicans like [New York Rep.] Mike Lawler, [Arizona Rep.] Juan Ciscomani, [Michigan Rep.] John James, and potentially others likely leaving their seats, we must ensure Democratic campaigns are set up for success—and that comes through conducting qualitative and quantitative research to develop specific messaging and strategies for individual races.”

A few of the districts House Majority PAC is working to field strong recruits for include:

• Colorado’s 8th District, where Democrats lost to Rep.-elect Gabe Evans by less than 1 point.
• Iowa’s 1st District, where GOP Rep. Marionette Miller Meeks won by just 799 votes.
• Pennsylvania’s 7th District, where Democrats lost to Rep.-elect Ryan Mackenzie by 1 point.
• Pennsylvania’s 8th District, where Democrats lost to Rep.-elect Robert Bresnahan by less than 2 points.
• Pennsylvania’s 10th District, where Republican Rep. Scott Perry won by just 1.3 points.
• Nebraska’s 2nd District, where GOP Rep. Don Bacon was able to hold on by less than 2 points, even as Vice President Kamala Harris carried the district.

On paper, the 2026 midterms should be a good year for House Democrats.

They need to flip just three seats in order to win back control of the House—something they came painfully close to doing in 2024. Democrats fell short this year in the three districts that determined the majority by a combined total of just 7,309 votes.

And given that the party in the White House almost always loses seats in the first midterm election, that puts Democrats in prime position to oust Johnson from the speaker’s office.

Democrats will have the added advantage in 2026 of being able to run against what is sure to be Republican dysfunction in Congress, as the GOP will struggle to pass its agenda with a historically small majority and fractious caucus of members who love to vote against legislation and refuse to make the compromises necessary to pass bills.

For at least the first few months of 2025, the GOP majority will be just one seat, until special elections can be held to fill vacancies created by Trump nominating House lawmakers to serve in his administration. That means Johnson cannot lose a single vote if every member shows up, as it would result in a 216-216 tie and a vote would fail.

That will make basic tasks—such as funding the government—a tightrope act for Johnson, as Republicans love to vote against spending deals and often have to rely on Democratic votes to keep the government’s lights on.

In 2018, the first midterm of Trump’s first turn in the White House, Democrats ran on the Republican chaos and gained 40 seats to win the majority—far more than the 23 the party needed to win the gavel.

Meanwhile, what Trump and the Republican majorities in Congress are promising to achieve is unlikely to be popular with the electorate.

Republicans are already talking about cutting Social Security and Medicare—the third rail of politics—while at the same time slashing taxes for the wealthiest Americans. Polling shows that voters actually want the government to raise taxes on the wealthy.

Meanwhile Trump is pushing for tariffs that will increase costs for consumers and hurt the economy, exactly the opposite of what Americans supposedly voted for in November.

Democrats are already drawing attention to the GOP’s dangerous agenda.

"It has become increasingly apparent that many of my House Republican colleagues want to jam big tax cuts for the wealthy, the well-off and the well-connected down the throats of the American people and try to pay for those tax cuts, which will not benefit everyday Americans, by cutting Social Security and Medicare,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said at a December 11 news conference on Capitol Hill.

“This is not a hypothetical. It's not hype. It's not hyperbole. It's happening before our very eyes because extreme MAGA Republicans in the House are telling us, publicly and repeatedly, that's exactly what they plan to do to the American people,” Jeffries warned. “House Democrats are clear we will oppose any effort to end Social Security and Medicare as we know it."

Expect to hear that message a lot over the next two years.