Tag: pew research
Joe Biden take the oath of office on Jan. 20, 2021.

Pew’s Validated Post-Election Poll Details Biden’s 2020 Win

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos

Overall participation in the 2020 election among U.S. adults rose seven points from 2016 to reach 66 percent last year. A new analysis of validated voters from Pew Research Center (which provides a bigger, more reliable sample than exit polls) built on several of the 2020 trends that have already been reported. Here're some of the key takeaways:

New 2020 Voters

One in 4 voters in 2020, or 25 percent, had not voted in 2016. About six percent of those new 2020 voters turned out in 2018, spiking participation in that midterm election. And voters who turned out in 2018 after skipping the 2016 presidential election were about twice as likely to back Joe Biden over Donald Trump in 2020.

But the 19 percent of new voters who came out in 2020 after skipping both 2016 and the midterms divided up almost evenly among Biden and Trump, 49 percent-47 percent. However, what was most notable about that group of new 2020 voters was the age disparity, writes Pew:

Among those under age 30 who voted in 2020 but not in either of the two previous elections, Biden led 59 percent to 33 percent, while Trump won among new or irregular voters ages 30 and older by 55 percent to 42 percent. Younger voters also made up an outsize share of these voters: Those under age 30 made up 38 percent of new or irregular 2020 voters, though they represented just 15 percent of all 2020 voters.

Third Party

Between 2016 and 2020, the electorate apparently got the memo that rolling the dice on a third-party candidate against Trump was effectively rolling the dice on democracy.

While six percent of 2016 voters cast a ballot for one of several third-party candidates, just two percent of the electorate voted third party in 2020.

Overall, third-party 2016 voters who turned out in 2020 voted 53 percent-36 percent for Biden over Trump, with 10 percent opting for a third-party candidate.

Suburban Voters

Biden made a solid nine-point gain with suburban voters, winning 54 percent of their vote compared to Hillary Clinton's 45 percent share.

This shift was also seen among White voters: Trump narrowly won White suburban voters by four points in 2020 (51 percent-47 percent); he carried this group by 16 points in 2016 (54 percent -- 38 percent).

Latino Voters

While Biden still won a 59 percent majority of Latino voters, Trump made double-digit gains among the demographic, winning 38 percent of them. In 2016, Clinton carried Latino voters 66 percent -- 28 percent.

One noteworthy feature of the 2020 election was the wide education gap among Hispanic voters. In 2020, Biden won college-educated Hispanic voters 69 percent to 30 percent. At the same time, Biden's advantage over Trump among Hispanic voters who did not have a college degree was far narrower (55 percent to 41 percent).

That's likely one reason that Democrats did so well with Latino voters in 2018, winning them 72 percent -- 25 percent, according to Pew. The higher one's education level, the more likely one is to vote in a midterm election.

Men Vs. Women

In 2016, Trump won men by 11 points, but in 2020 they split almost even between Trump and Biden, 50 percen -- 48 perecent, respectively. Women stayed roughly as loyal to Democrats in both presidential elections, with Biden garnering 55 percent to Clinton's 54 percent, but Trump increased his share of the female vote by five points in 2020 compared to 2016, 44 percent -- 39 percent.

As has been previously reported, Biden made gains among white men while Trump increased his showing among white women.

In 2016, Trump won White men by 30 points (62 percent to 32 percent). That gap narrowed to a 17-point margin for Trump in 2020 (57 percent to 40 percent). White women, a group sometimes categorized as swing voters and who broke nearly evenly in 2016 (47 percent for Trump to 45 percent for Clinton), favored him in 2020 (53% to 46%).

So in 2016, Trump won a plurality of white women, but in 2020 he won a narrow majority. Trump won a majority of white men in both cycles, but Biden trimmed Trump's margins in 2020 by nearly half. Overall, Trump's losses among white men and gains among white women decreased the gender gap among white voters.

White Non-College Voters

Biden gained five points among white voters with only some college or less, winning 33 percent to Clinton's 28 percent, while Trump's numbers stayed about the same at 65 percent in 2020 versus 64 percent in 2015.

President Joe Biden

Pew Poll: Biden Smokes Trump On Every Measure Of Performance

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos

Pew Research Center released a sprawling polling overview of Joe Biden's early presidency, and the reviews are pretty damn good—particularly given the polarized political environment in this moment of national crisis.

For starters, 59 percent of American approve of the way Biden is doing his job, while 39 percent disapprove—that marks an improvement of a handful of points over last month when 54 percent approved of his job performance.

Biden's job approval has clearly been helped by public perception of his work in bringing the pandemic under control and getting the country back to work—the job Americans chiefly hired him to do.

In terms of the vaccine roll out, 72 percent rated the Biden administration's execution as excellent (29 percent) or good (43 percent), though the survey was taken before the latest halt/review of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. That widespread approval includes 55% of Republicans and Republican leaners—a pretty impressive feat for a guy who most of them believe wasn't duly elected.

The public also continues to largely favor Biden's $2 trillion coronavirus rescue package, with 67 percent of Americans approving of the bill, including 36 percent who strongly approve. Just 32 percent disapprove of the relief plan, with only 17 percent saying they strongly disapprove. The relief plan also continues to divide the GOP base by income level, with fully 55 percent of lower income Republicans and Republican leaners approving of the bill, compared to just 18 percent approval among Republicans with the highest incomes.

The relief plan's high approval—which is entirely consistent with public approval of the plan before it became law—suggests people not only like the plan but are also pleased so far with its rollout. Indeed, a Civiqs poll earlier this week found that 80 percent of respondents had received their direct payments and some 90 percent of those who reported receiving the money said the amount was about as expected.

On a series of less tangible, more perception-based questions, Biden also seems to be doing relatively well, particularly when compared to the former guy.

A 46 percent plurality of Americans say they like how Biden is conducting himself in office, with just 27 percent saying they don't and another 27 percent expressing mixed feelings on the matter. In February of 2020, just 15 percent said the same of Donald Trump. Biden's significant improvement on the matter is due to him drawing less criticism from the opposing party—while 59% or Republicans said they don't like the way Biden conducts himself, fully 85 percent of Democrats disliked how Trump conducted himself.

A 44 percent plurality of the public also thinks Biden has changed the tone and nature of national political discourse "for the better," while just 29 percent say he has changed it for the worse.

In the final year of Trump's tenure, a 55 percent majority of Americans believed Trump had changed the tone of political debate for the worse, with just 25 percent saying he had a positive effect on political discourse and 19 percent saying he hadn't affected it either way.

Finally, Democrats in Congress are also dusting their GOP counterparts in terms of approval rating. Half of Americans approve of congressional Democrats' performance while just 32 percent approve of Republicans' job performance.

Overall, the American public is giving President Biden a pretty glowing review for how he has comported himself at the outset of his presidency. He is largely delivering on the promises he made and the job he was hired to do. While public perception is likely to get more complicated down the road, Biden has earned himself more political capital to spend rather than depleting his cache right from the start.

Poll: Americans Blame Republicans, Not Biden, For Partisan Divide On Relief

Poll: Americans Blame Republicans, Not Biden, For Partisan Divide On Relief

Reprinted with permission from American Independent

Congressional Republicans' effort to pin blame for the lack of bipartisanship over the American Rescue Plan on President Joe Biden has failed badly.

A Pew Research Center poll released on Tuesday found that 57 percent of Americans believe the Biden administration made a "good faith effort" to work with Republicans on the mammoth pandemic relief legislation. Forty percent said they did not believe the administration had made such an effort.

Among Democrats, the number of those polled who answered yes to the question was unsurprisingly high — 87 percent. Among Republicans, that figure was much lower, at just 23 percent.

Asked if Republican leaders did the same with the administration, just 42 percent of total respondents said yes and 55 percent said no.

Biden announced in January that he would ask Congress to approve the $1.9 trillion legislation to provide $1,400 relief checks for most Americans; unemployment benefits to those out of work due to the pandemic; tax cuts for working families; and hundreds of billions more in funding to help schools reopen safely, assist cash-strapped state and local governments, and improve coronavirus vaccination and testing.

From the beginning, Republicans opposed the legislation; not a single one voted for it at any step of the process.

On February 1, ten Senate Republicans countered with a proposal that would have given Biden less than a third of what he requested, saying they were doing so "in the spirit of bipartisanship and unity." Biden hosted them at the White House for a lengthy meeting, but made clear he would not accept an insufficient bill.

Rather than suggest an alternative that was closer to what Biden had asked for, GOP lawmakers then began a campaign to attack the bill as too partisan.

After blocking a House-passed $3 trillion COVID-19 relief bill in the Senate last year, Republicans tried to rewrite history and pretend that congressional coronavirus efforts had always been bipartisan.

In reality, then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to consider any relief legislation at all from May until September, calling this "the reasonable thing to do" and claiming, "It allowed us to learn the coronavirus didn't mysteriously disappear."

After Congress passed less than a trillion in relief in December, Senate Republican Whip John Thune made clear that his party would try to block any further relief under Biden.

Seizing on Biden's inaugural address call for "unity," Republicans accused the new president and the Democratic majorities in Congress of somehow breaking that promise by proceeding with the $1.9 trillion legislation against their wishes.

Then, after unanimously trying to block the bill, Republicans denounced it as not "bipartisan" enough.

While the bill met partisan disagreement in the Congress, it proved popular among voters in both parties.

A Morning Consult/Politico poll, released Wednesday, found 75 percent of registered voters support the $1.9 trillion relief plan — 18 percent are against it.

Among Republican voters, 59 percent support the bill and just 35 percent oppose.

Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation.

Beneath The Rancor, Social Security’s Future Is On The Ballot

Beneath The Rancor, Social Security’s Future Is On The Ballot

By Mark Miller

CHICAGO (Reuters) – The future of Social Security is on the ballot this year – not that you could tell by the U.S. presidential debates, or by any other aspect of this rancorous, sensational election.

But 67 percent of registered voters rank Social Security as a “very important” part of their voting decision this year – just behind the economy, terrorism, gun policy and immigration, according to the Pew Research Center.

And so it should be. Social Security is the most important retirement benefit for most American workers – it provides at least half of the income for 48 percent of retired couples, and for 71 percent of single seniors, according to the Social Security Administration. Also, Social Security benefits kept 22.1 million seniors, working-age adults and children out of poverty in 2015 according to an analysis of Census data released this week by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

But Social Security’s retirement and disability trust funds are forecast to be depleted in 2034. At that point, benefits would be cut an estimated 21 percent, unless Congress takes action.

Meanwhile, a consensus is developing that an expansion of Social Security benefits should be added to the reform agenda to address our growing retirement security crisis. Solvency and expansion can both be addressed by raising new revenue. Options include raising the cap on income subject to payroll taxes, raising payroll tax rates very gradually over a 10-year period or even allowing Social Security to invest a portion of the trust fund in equities.

Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican rival Donald Trump faced just one question about Social Security during their recent debates – and the framing was wrong.

Moderator Chris Wallace of Fox News asked the candidates how they would reform the program in light of its role as a key driver of the nation’s debt. Wallace had it backwards – Social Security actually lends money to the federal government, not the other way around.

Surplus trust fund assets are invested in a special type of Treasury note backed by the government’s full faith and credit. So Social Security is no more a driver of the debt than other holders of government bonds (China comes to mind). The Social Security trust fund is a lender to a government that spends much more than it levies in taxes. When the trust fund runs dry in 2034, there is no mechanism available to make up the funding gap from general revenue.

Wallace asked if Trump would make a deal to save Social Security (and Medicare) that included both tax increases and benefit cuts. Trump did not answer, instead pivoting to a critique of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Clinton, focusing on Social Security, reiterated her support for raising revenue through higher payroll taxes on the wealthy, fighting any benefit cuts and supporting targeted increases for low-income workers and women.

Her response is in line with what voters want. Another Pew poll, conducted back in March, found that 71 percent of registered voters oppose benefit cuts. That figure does not change much when you filter respondents by party affiliation or which candidates they supported in the primaries. Other polling suggests a majority of Americans would favor higher payroll taxes – on the wealthy or on themselves – to support the program.

Aside from the two candidates, where would the two major political parties take us on Social Security reform after the Nov. 8 election? The party platforms adopted at this year’s conventions are instructive.

The Republican platform states that solvency should be restored without tax increases. That is a de facto call for benefit cuts, because there are only two ways to solve Social Security’s financial problems: either you cut benefits or increase revenue.

The platform also states that Republicans “believe in the power of markets to create wealth and to help secure the future of our Social Security system.” That is a clear call for shifting Social Security to a system of private accounts, as advocated by President George W. Bush in 2005.

Meanwhile, the Democratic platform says this: ”We will fight every effort to cut, privatize, or weaken Social Security, including attempts to raise the retirement age, diminish benefits by cutting cost-of-living adjustments, or reducing earned benefits.” The platform document goes on to call for benefit expansion, at least for “women who are widowed or took time out of the workforce to care for their children, aging parents, or ailing family members.”

It also calls for “exploration of alternatives” to Social Security’s current annual cost-of-living adjustment that would be more “equitable” for seniors.

What might happen if Clinton wins, as expected? Odds are good that she would tackle Social Security reform sometime in a first or second term, but much will depend on which party controls the two chambers of Congress. Republicans can be expected to continue their push for a higher retirement age, less generous cost-of-living adjustments and some form of means-tested benefits. Democratic control of the Senate and House of Representatives would create a historic opportunity for legislative reform to restore Social Security’s long-range solvency and expand benefits.

If the Democrats fall short of that, their challenge will be to keep the debate about Social Security reform separate from phony debt arguments, and away from back room deals that do not require legislators to go on the record in favor of cutting, sustaining or expanding Social Security. In that scenario, lawmakers would have to explain to voters why they oppose putting some extra benefits in their pockets. Or, worse – why they are OK with allowing Social Security to keep veering toward a huge benefit cut in 2034?

The polling data tells us that expansion will win. Not that you could tell it in this particular election season.

(The writer is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)

(Editing by Matthew Lewis)

Photo: A voter holds his sample ballot as he works to cast his ballot during early voting at the Beatties Ford Library in Charlotte, North Carolina, October 20, 2016. REUTERS/Chris Keane