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Bernie Sanders Gains On Hillary Clinton In Iowa, Quinnipiac Poll Says

Bernie Sanders Gains On Hillary Clinton In Iowa, Quinnipiac Poll Says

By Ben Brody, Bloomberg News (TNS)

Hillary Clinton enjoys a 19-point lead among likely Democratic caucus-goers in the key state of Iowa over her nearest challenger, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, but that advantage has shrunk since May, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday.

The former secretary of state gets the support of 52 percent of her party’s likely caucus-goers in the state, which holds the nation’s first nominating contest, while Sanders, a Senate independent and self-described socialist seeking the Democratic nomination, pulls in support from 33 percent. In May, the split was 60 percent to 15 percent.

It is the first time Clinton has received less than 60 percent support in the poll, according to assistant poll director Peter A. Brown.

A Bloomberg Politics poll conducted June 19-22 found Clinton the first choice of 50 percent of likely Iowa Democratic caucus participants, with 24 percent favoring Sanders.

Vice President Joe Biden, who has not said he is running, received 7 percent. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley drew 3 percent, and undeclared former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb got support from 1 percent. Former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee received no support.

“Secretary Hillary Clinton should not be biting her fingernails over her situation in the Iowa caucus, but her lead is slipping,” said Brown in a news release. But Sanders, he said, “certainly can’t be ignored, especially with seven months until the actual voting.”

The most welcome news for Clinton may be the responses about her character, with 85 percent saying they had a favorable opinion of her and 83 percent saying they believe “Clinton cares about the needs and problem of people like” themselves — figures that have remained stable since the last poll.

The poll of 761 likely Iowa Democratic caucus participants was conducted June 20-29. The margin or error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

Photo: Senate Democrats via Flickr

Obama Tops ‘Worst President’ List

Obama Tops ‘Worst President’ List

Washington (AFP) — A new poll Wednesday found President Barack Obama, who is enduring a tough second term, topping a list of the worst U.S. leaders since World War II.

The survey, by the polling institute at Quinnipiac University, revealed that 33 percent of those asked saw Obama as the worst leader in the last 70 years. Twenty-eight percent picked his predecessor, Republican George W. Bush.

Quinnipiac said that 35 percent saw Republican Ronald Reagan, president from 1981 to 1989, as the best U.S. leader since 1945, with 18 percent choosing Bill Clinton and 15 percent going for the assassinated John F. Kennedy.

“Over the span of 69 years of American history and 12 presidencies, President Barack Obama finds himself with President George W. Bush at the bottom of the popularity barrel,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of polling for Quinnipiac.

Forty-five percent of those polled said that America would have been better off had Republican Mitt Romney won the 2012 election, while 38 percent said the country would be worse off.

Presidents typically capture the most heat while they are in office, and many find that their spells in the White House are reevaluated when they have retired and are out of Washington’s bitter partisan crossfire.

Bush, who was deeply unpopular at the end of his second term, has seen his ratings edge up in recent years. Others like Clinton were popular on their last day in office and have seen their public opinion ratings remain strong.

The poll appeared to show a bias towards more recent presidents. Only 13 percent said Richard Nixon, who resigned in disgrace, was seen as the worst president. Jimmy Carter, a one-term Democrat whose 1981-85 presidency is often pilloried, was seen as the worst president by only eight percent.

The Quinnipiac poll was consistent with other recent surveys, showing Obama’s job approval ratings touching near historic lows of around 40 percent.

A string of political controversies and foreign policy crises have sullied Obama’s reputation. The poll found that by 54 to 44 percent, voters believe the Obama administration is not competent at running the government.

Only 40 percent of those asked approved of how Obama was handling the economy and only 37 percent backed his management of foreign policy.

The survey was conducted between June 20-24 among 1,446 registered voters and has a plus or minus margin of error of 2.6 percentage points.

AFP Photo / Mandel Ngan

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Poll Roundup: Are Democrats Done In Montana?

Poll Roundup: Are Democrats Done In Montana?

As the 2014 midterm elections draw closer, pollsters across the country will begin releasing masses of data and their predictions of who will control the House of Representatives, the Senate, and statehouses across the country. We’ll put those polls in focus and provide a brief summary of some key polls. Here’s a poll roundup from the week of May 4:

Montana:

According to a Hickman Analytics poll released on Thursday, Montana is shaping up to be an easy win for the GOP come November. The poll shows that Representative Steve Daines (R-MT) holding a 12-point advantage over Democratic senator John Walsh.

President Obama appointed former senator Max Baucus (D-MT) — who had announced that he would not seek re-election — as U.S. ambassador to China in December. In February, Governor Steve Bullock (D-MT) appointed Walsh, then the state’s lieutenant governor, to complete Baucus’ term. Walsh had already been the favorite for the Democratic nomination to replace Baucus. It appears that his months of incumbency have not helped him gain much traction in deep-red Montana, however.

According to the same Hickman poll, Daines holds a 48 percent approval rating across the state. That’s a 10 points better than Walsh or President Obama, who lost the state by 14 points in 2012.

Kentucky:

Polls show Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) with a wide lead over Tea Party challenger Matt Bevin in Kentucky’s May 20 Republican primary — but the general election continues to pose a challenge for the incumbent senator seeking his fifth term.

The most recent Hickman Analytics poll out of Kentucky has Senator McConnell with a narrow 1-point advantage over his Democratic challenger, Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. McConnell holds 46 percent of the vote among likely voters, versus Grimes’ 45 percent — well within the poll’s +/- 4.4 percent margin of error.

McConnell and Grimes have been running even throughout the campaign, and all signs point to a tight race until November. Although Kentucky is a reliably red state, the minority leader’s approval rating has fallen as low as 32 percent in February, and remains comparable to President Obama’s in the Bluegrass State.

Georgia:

An InsiderAdvantage poll released on Wednesday confirmed previous surveys showing former Reebok CEO David Perdue jumping ahead of his challengers for Georgia’s open Senate seat. The poll shows Perdue with a solid 8 percent advantage ahead of the May 20 primary.

Georgia’s former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) and Representative Jack Kingston (R-GA) remain virtually tied for second. InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery is not ready to count out Handel and Kingston from gaining the Republican nomination. If they secure enough of the overall vote during the primary and force a runoff, Towery is convinced they may be able to pull ahead of Perdue for the Republican nomination.

“One thing that might lower Perdue’s actual Election Day performance is his lack of a major voter turnout machine,” Towery said. “Both Handel and Kingston have natural political bases of support, and they can and will come out to vote. The next week could see several more shifts as voters now get down to actually paying attention.”

Connecticut:

Incumbent governor Dannel Malloy (D-CT) faces a close election against Republican frontrunner and 2010 challenger Tom Foley.

A Quinnipiac poll released on Friday finds Malloy and Foley in a 43-43 percent tie, with a +/- 2.4 percent margin of error. Governor Malloy has a slight image advantage, with a 46 percent favorability rating; Foley’s is just 36 percent.

Republicans have been criticizing Malloy for his handling of the state budget and taxes, and for failing to deliver a promised $55 per person tax refund. The Quinnipiac survey demonstrates this may not hold any significant weight with voters when they head to the polls, however.

“Economic issues are dragging Governor Malloy down,” said Quinnipiac University poll director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. “A bright spot for Malloy is that voters think he has strong leadership qualities and is honest and trustworthy.”

Malloy won the 2010 gubernatorial race against Foley by less than 1 percent of the vote.

Photo by “jimmywayne” via Flickr

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