Tag: senate race
Poll: Senate Candidate Kamala Harris Unknown To More Than Half Of California Voters

Poll: Senate Candidate Kamala Harris Unknown To More Than Half Of California Voters

By Seema Mehta, Los Angeles Times (TNS)

LOS ANGELES — California Attorney General Kamala Harris, the only major candidate for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Barbara Boxer, is unknown by more than half the state’s registered voters, according to a new University of Southern California Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll.

Even more — six in ten — have no impression of her, favorable or dim.

The primary election is more than a year away, giving Harris, a Democrat, ample opportunity to raise enough money to introduce herself to California’s nearly 18 million registered voters. But voters’ lack of knowledge about Harris — a state official since 2011 — presents an opportunity for a challenger.

“She’s not some huge titan,” said Dave Kanevsky of American Viewpoint, the Republican half of the bipartisan team that conducted the survey. “She by no means has this election locked up more than a year in advance.”

Drew Lieberman of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, the Democratic polling firm, agreed but noted that Harris led the field of potential candidates in the poll and had strong approval ratings among voters who knew her.

“I wouldn’t trade her starting position for anyone else’s,” he said.

Harris announced her candidacy last month, within days of Boxer’s announcement that she would not seek re-election, and has since been holding fundraisers and securing endorsements.

In addition, the best known politician who was considering the race, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, announced this week that he would not run. The survey shows that he would have entered the race trailing Harris.

And although more than six in ten respondents could identify him, unfavorable impressions of him were twice as high as for Harris. Voters preferred Harris over Villaraigosa by nine percentage points in a multi-candidate field.

Such a gap could have been overcome, said poll director Dan Schnur, head of USC’s Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics, pointing to the strong support Villaraigosa received among one of the fastest-growing voter groups: Latinos.

A bid by Villaraigosa “would not have been a suicide mission by any stretch of the imagination,” Schnur said.

In a head-to-head match, Harris drew 45 percent support, compared with 27 percent for Villaraigosa, according to the poll.

Harris’ advisers have clearly recognized her lack of a statewide profile. In the final days of her 2014 re-election campaign, in which she faced no serious threat, Harris’ campaign spent more than $1 million advertising on television outside of her San Francisco Bay Area home base.

Not surprisingly, some of Harris’ strongest support comes from Bay Area voters, 45 percent of whom said they plan to vote for her in the June 2016 Senate primary. Harris, who is half black, also polls well among African-American voters, 50 percent of whom support her. And 38 percent of voters with at least one college degree said they would vote for her.

Harris received more support from women and those over 50 than did any of the seven possible candidates tested: Both groups favored her at 29 percent, the poll shows.

Kim Ganz, 50, of San Jose, said it was important that a woman retain the seat Boxer won in 1992, known in politics as the “Year of the Woman” because a record number of females were elected to the U.S. Senate.

“I’m very sorry to see Barbara Boxer go,” said Ganz, a physical therapy assistant. “I do think it’s important to have a woman go into that seat, not just to represent us, but you carry on the legacy.”

But Ganz added that her support of Harris goes beyond gender and is based on her work as the state’s top law-enforcement official.

The poll of 1,505 registered voters, conducted for the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences and the Times, took place Feb. 18-24, ending on the day Villaraigosa announced his decision not to run for U.S. Senate. The margin of error is 2.7 points in either direction, and higher for subgroups.

Had he run, Villaraigosa would have entered the race as Harris’ most potent threat, despite her better showing, the survey shows.

He received support from 19 percent of respondents, compared to Harris’ 28 percent. Notably, he trailed Harris in Los Angeles County, 24 percent to 28 percent. But more than four in ten Latinos said they would back Villaraigosa, while 14 percent preferred Harris.

Martin Garcia, 20, said the historic possibility of electing a Latino senator from California was one reason he would have strongly supported the former mayor.

“It shows … we can be someone,” said the Compton resident, who is studying architecture at Cal Poly Pomona.

When he was younger, Garcia said, he saw Villaraigosa as mayor and thought, “I want to be just like him.”

Several others are said to be weighing a Senate run, and those named in the survey drew only single-digit support when respondents made their first choice. Among those possible contenders, Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin received the biggest nod, with 9 percent.

Swearengin unsuccessfully ran for state controller in 2014, and her adviser has said that she is likely to forgo a Senate run to seek executive office in 2018. But among registered Republicans, she is the top choice for Senate, with 23 percent of their vote.

Republican registration is so low in the state — 28 percent — that prospects for a GOP victory in the race are considered slim.

Still, 56-year-old Republican Michael Marshall of Firebaugh, 40 miles outside Fresno, said he would support Swearengin for a change of direction.

California’s Democratic senators have failed the drought-parched Central Valley, he said — though he was skeptical of Swearengin’s viability against politicians from larger cities.

“They have a bigger population base, and that gives you a better chance,” he said.

Photo: Steve Rhodes via Flickr

Ted Strickland Announces Senate Run In Ohio

Ted Strickland Announces Senate Run In Ohio

By Alexis Levinson, CQ-Roll Call (TNS)

Former Ohio Governor Ted Strickland, a Democrat, announced Wednesday morning he will challenge Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) in 2016.

“I’m running for the United States Senate in 2016 because I am determined to restore the American Dream for working people in this country,” Strickland said in a statement emailed to reporters.

Democrats need to gain five seats in 2016 to secure a majority, and in a presidential year, that path could run through Ohio.

This Senate race will not be an easy one for Democrats. Portman is a strong fundraiser: He started 2015 with a $5.8 million war chest and will likely add to that sum after the March 31 deadline. The senator began building his campaign team late last month, hiring a campaign manager, a political director, and a fundraiser.

But Strickland will likely be a formidable challenger. A fixture in Ohio politics, he served as governor from 2006 to 2010 following six non-consecutive House terms.

One Democrat is already in the Senate race: Cincinnati City Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld launched a campaign a month ago. Many Ohio Democrats expect he will exit the race in the near future now that Strickland is officially running.

In his statement announcing his bid, Strickland mentioned neither Portman nor Sittenfeld.

In a presidential year, when Ohio’s 18 electoral votes are the ultimate prize, the Buckeye State Senate race will likely see a fair bit of action. Strickland is close to former President Bill Clinton and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a likely presidential candidate in 2016.

The race is rated Leans Republican by the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call.

Photo: Dana Beveridge via Flickr

Villaraigosa Bows Out Of Senate Race, Leaving Others To Battle Harris

Villaraigosa Bows Out Of Senate Race, Leaving Others To Battle Harris

By Michael Finnegan and Seema Mehta, Los Angeles Times (TNS)

LOS ANGELES — Antonio Villaraigosa’s announcement Tuesday that he would skip the contest for Barbara Boxer’s seat in the U.S. Senate leaves an opening for an array of less-known Californians to take on California Attorney General Kamala Harris, the only major candidate so far.

The former Los Angeles mayor was uniquely positioned to enter the campaign with a broad foundation of support, most solidly among Latinos in Southern California.

But after more than six weeks of private consultations with political leaders and campaign consultants, Villaraigosa, 62, bowed out of contention.

“I know that my heart and my family are here in California, not Washington, D.C.,” Villaraigosa said in a written statement that hinted of his enduring ambition to run instead for governor in 2018.

“I have decided not to run for the U.S. Senate and instead continue my efforts to make California a better place to live, work and raise a family. We have come a long way, but our work is not done and neither am I.”

Harris, a fellow Democrat and former San Francisco district attorney, expects to dominate the Senate contest in the Bay Area, a major advantage in the June 2016 primary. She has been raising money for weeks. She also has a head start in lining up supporters, including law enforcement groups rallying behind the state’s top prosecutor.

Villaraigosa’s exit could draw heightened interest in the race from other Southern California Democrats who are weighing whether to run. They include Reps. Loretta Sanchez of Garden Grove, Xavier Becerra of Los Angeles and Adam Schiff of Burbank.

But all of them lack the public name recognition that Villaraigosa gained in more than two decades as a staple of news coverage in California’s largest media market.

“Any member of Congress is not particularly well-known statewide, so that’s definitely a challenge,” said Parke Skelton, a Democratic strategist who has worked for a number of potential Senate candidates.

Much can occur, however, in the next 19 months. Boxer’s improbable victory in the 1992 Senate race is testament to the potential of relatively obscure House members to vault to the head of the field in a tough statewide contest.

But it’s not cheap to run for Senate, and federal donation limits make it an arduous task to raise money.

“We operate in a completely different political world now, and the amount of money it takes to run and win in California is daunting,” said Democratic campaign strategist Katie Merrill. “I think that’s one of the reasons that you haven’t seen more people jump into the race.”

Still, Harris was elected attorney general in 2010 by a razor-thin margin, and she has yet to be tested in the glaring media spotlight of a big-arena contest like that for U.S. Senate.

The campaign carries little professional risk for Harris. If she loses, she can keep serving as attorney general until her term expires at the end of 2018.

But members of Congress cannot seek re-election and run for another office at the same time, so any who run against Harris must give up their jobs at the end of their current terms.

Of those known to be considering the Senate race, Schiff has the most money in the bank — more than $2.1 million.
Sanchez and Becerra would each depend on a Latino base in Southern California to buttress their candidacies, as would former Army Secretary Louis Caldera, a one-time Los Angeles state assemblyman who is exploring a candidacy. Their big challenge would be to build support among other groups.

“Successful candidates are going to need to move far beyond their ethnic or geographic base in order to win,” said Rose Kapolczynski, Boxer’s longtime campaign strategist.

History suggests the potential election of California’s first Latino in the U.S. Senate could mobilize a disproportionately large share of Latino voters.

Latino turnout typically lags that of other voter groups in California, but a rare exception was Villaraigosa’s 2005 election as mayor, according to Political Data Inc., a nonpartisan company that tracks voting patterns. Villaraigosa was the first Latino mayor of modern Los Angeles, an important dynamic in his campaign to unseat Mayor James K. Hahn.

For Republicans, Villaraigosa’s exit will have little effect. The party’s popularity in California has dropped so low that its prospects for capturing Boxer’s seat are minimal.

Republicans pondering a bid include Assemblyman Rocky Chavez of Oceanside and former state party Chairman Tom Del Beccaro, who have formed exploratory committees. Former state Republican Chairman Duf Sundheim is also considering the race.

For Villaraigosa, the Senate contest would have been his first tough campaign since he ousted Hahn. Win or lose, it would have put the former mayor back in the public spotlight after 19 months of keeping a low profile in the private sector.

It also would have put an early end to his employment as a consultant for Banc of California, Herbalife Ltd. and other companies.

When he left office, Villaraigosa said he wanted to run for governor in 2018 — a timetable that would give him more time to build his personal savings after serving as a state assemblyman, city councilman and mayor.

But Boxer’s announcement last month that she would not seek re-election provided an opening for a quicker return to public office, albeit as one of 100 senators in Washington.

Villaraigosa, however, was put off by the rush to decide whether to run and wanted to stay close to his four grown children in California, said former state Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, a close friend of the former mayor.
“I think governor is more along the lines of what he wants to do,” Nunez said.

The competition could be fierce. Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, a former San Francisco mayor, has already formed a committee to start raising money for the governor’s race.

It appeared to be no accident that Villaraigosa’s statement Tuesday echoed the one that Newsom put out last month when he too declined to run for Senate by saying “I know that my head and my heart, my young family’s future” remain in California.

At the end of 2014, Newsom reported more than $3 million in campaign cash already on hand, as did another potential Democratic gubernatorial contender, state Treasurer John Chiang. Villaraigosa would start the campaign with no money, but candidates can collect much bigger donations for state races than for federal contests.

Other Democrats who might also be tempted to run for governor include Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti and state Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de Leon of Los Angeles.

Photo: Paresh Dave/Neon Tommy via Flickr

Vulnerable Senate Democrats Almost Always Voted With Obama

Vulnerable Senate Democrats Almost Always Voted With Obama

By Niels Lesniewski, CQ Roll Call

(MCT)
WASHINGTON — Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s decision to avoid tough votes this year has backfired in one respect — it gave his vulnerable incumbents few opportunities to show off any independence from President Barack Obama.

A new CQ vote study shows that vulnerable Senate Democrats almost always voted to support the president in 2014 — a fact that has been seized upon by Republicans, given that Obama’s approval rating is languishing in the low 40s nationally and lower still in several battleground states.

Democrats who have been distancing themselves from Obama on the campaign trail not in votes on the Senate floor include Mark Udall of Colorado Mark Pryor of Arkansas and Mary L. Landrieu of Louisiana.

Udall disagreed with Obama just once, on a Pennsylvania state judge’s nomination to a federal district court. Pryor parted with Obama three times, and Landrieu four, but only one of those votes was on a policy matter. In July, Landrieu voted against Obama’s request for $2.7 billion to deal with the surge of Latin American children entering the U.S. illegally.

All of the most vulnerable Democrats voted with Obama at least 96 percent of the time on the 120 votes on which Obama has urged a “yes” or “no” vote.

Reid clamped down on amendments more than ever this year and the bills he brought to the floor were aimed at unifying Democrats and putting Republicans on defense — like a minimum wage increase, an unemployment-benefits extension, pay equity and refinancing student loans — rather than bills that would lead to Democratic defections.

As a result, there are only 18 legislative votes involved in the scoring this year. The vast majority (102) were nomination votes. That’s the most lopsided ratio since CQ began keeping records on the ratio in 1988.

Reid’s use of the “nuclear option” last year to effectively prevent Republicans from blocking judicial and executive branch nominees has also contributed to the results. Since the option was imposed, Republicans have insisted on roll-call votes on traditionally noncontroversial nominations, a move that’s had the bonus effect for them of raising presidential support scores for Democrats.

On Thursday, the National Republican Senatorial Committee issued separate releases targeting Democrats citing the figures.

Those releases are virtually identical, with NRSC spokeswoman Brook Hougesen offering quotes that differ only in the name of the senator being targeted and the voting percentage figures.

“Mark Begich is no independent; this year he actually voted for President Obama’s agenda an astounding 98 percent of the time,” Hougesen said in the Alaska version of the releases. “President Obama is right, a vote for Mark Begich is a vote for his policies.”

The campaign website for Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., campaign website includes a rebuttal, of sorts, to the underlying charge from GOP challenger Scott P. Brown, the former Massachusetts senator, listing times that Shaheen has opposed the Obama administration’s policies, even if there weren’t roll-call votes on the Senate floor associated with them.

The Republican party in North Carolina was also quick to highlight Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan’s 99 percent presidential support rating in 2014.

On the Republican side, the large number of generally noncontroversial nominees included in the calculations contributed to all but one GOP incumbent supporting Obama more than half the time. That outlier, Pat Roberts of Kansas, also happens to be the most vulnerable Republican on the ballot this year. He supported Obama about 49 percent of the time.

AFP Photo/Saul Loeb

Want more political news and analysis? Sign up for our daily email newsletter!