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Tag: texas gubernatorial race
Poll: Abbott Holds Double-Digit Lead Over Davis In Texas Gubernatorial Race

Poll: Abbott Holds Double-Digit Lead Over Davis In Texas Gubernatorial Race

By Jonathan Tilove, American-Statesman Staff

AUSTIN, Texas — Attorney General Greg Abbott is holding a steady double-digit lead over state Sen. Wendy Davis in the Texas governor’s race, according to a poll conducted Thursday through Sunday by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-leaning polling firm based in North Carolina.

The survey found that Abbott was leading Davis 51 percent to 37 percent, just about the same as Abbott’s 50 percent to 35 percent lead when they last polled in November.

Most troubling for the Davis campaign is that nearly half the electorate has an unfavorable view of the Fort Worth Democrat, who is 12 points better known than Abbott. In the first flush of national celebrity right after her Senate filibuster of abortion legislation in June, a Public Policy Polling survey found Davis had a 39 percent favorable rating, compared to 29 percent who viewed her unfavorably. That has now flipped and only 33 percent view her in a positive light, while 47 percent hold a negative view of her.

Davis is as unpopular with women as men. Just 32 percent of women viewed her favorably, compared with 46 percent of women who viewed her unfavorably. Among men, 33 percent had a positive view, while 48 percent held a negative view. However, she is still running a far stronger race with women than men. Abbott leads Davis among women, 49 percent to 41 percent, and among men, 53 percent to 32 percent.

Abbott has a 64 percent to 27 percent lead among white voters. Davis leads among Hispanics, 43 percent to 33 percent, and among African-Americans 72 percent to 11 percent.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 559 registered voters April 10-13. The margin of error for the overall survey is plus or minus 4.1 percent. Eighty percent of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20 percent interviewed over the Internet to reach respondents who don’t have land line telephones.

According to the poll, President Barack Obama is deeply unpopular in Texas — only 36 percent of voters in the state approve of the job he is doing while 58 percent disapprove.

“It looks like it’s going to be an uphill battle for Democrats in Texas this year,” said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling.

In the race for lieutenant governor, Public Policy Polling found Democratic state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte in worse shape than Davis no matter which Republican wins the May runoff. Republican state Sen. Dan Patrick leads her by 16 points at 51 percent to 35 percent, while incumbent David Dewhurst leads her by 18 points at 50 percent to 32 percent.

The Public Policy Polling survey also contained good news for Gov. Rick Perry, who has been attempting to repair his reputation, in Texas and nationally, as he contemplates a second run for president. The survey found 48 percent viewed him favorably, and 44 percent unfavorably. Two years ago, in the aftermath of his disastrous presidential run, Perry had a positive rating of 39 percent, and a negative rating of 53 percent.

The survey also revealed that U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, the state’s senior senator, who is seeking a third term, continues be an underwhelming figure for Texas voters. He suffers a negative approval rating of 40 percent, compared to 31 percent who viewed him favorably. Only 46 percent of Republicans viewed him favorably. But he leads Dr. David Alameel in a prospective November showdown — 49 percent to 32 percent — assuming Alameel prevails in the May runoff over Kesha Rogers, a Democrat from Houston who has called for the impeachment of Obama.

Alan Kotok via Flickr.com

Texas Candidate Wendy Davis Faces Questions About Biography

Texas Candidate Wendy Davis Faces Questions About Biography

Mark Z. Barabak, Los Angeles Times

In 1984, Gary Hart experienced the whole meteoric-crash-and-burn phenomenon in textbook fashion.

The Colorado senator and dark horse presidential candidate finished a distant second behind then-Vice President Walter Mondale in the 1984 Iowa caucuses, losing 49 percent to 17 percent. But in the odd alchemy of presidential politics, Hart was declared the “winner” of the caucuses — despite the 32-point blowout — because he held Mondale below 50 percent and outperformed “expectations.”

Hart went on to win the New Hampshire primary and emerge, for a time, as a serious challenger for the Democratic presidential nomination until a slow unraveling that involved a series of nagging questions about the self-portrayal he put forth in his campaign. He had, for instance, shaved a year off his age, shortened the family name from Hartpence to Hart and altered his personal signature several times.

Small stuff, maybe, but eventually the inconsistencies added up to big questions about the heretofore little-known Hart, exacerbated by his vague and unsatisfying explanations — to keep our scandals straight, it was four years later that his presidential prospects sank, once and for all, in the wake of an apparently adulterous relationship aboard the aptly named yacht Monkey Business.

Now Wendy Davis, another meteorically risen candidate, is undergoing the flyspeck scrutiny of a big-time campaign and explaining away small but nagging inconsistencies in a personal story that, far more than Hart’s, has been instrumental to her early success.

Davis, the Democratic hopeful for Texas governor, burst on the national scene last summer after filibustering to briefly block state passage of stiff anti-abortion legislation. Her physical stamina was impressive, but even more so was Davis’ bootstrapping back story: a divorced single mom rising from the trailer park to Harvard Law School and a successful legal and political career.

Then on Sunday, veteran Dallas Morning News political reporter Wayne Slater published a story raising some questions about the details and chronology of the story Davis and her campaign have put forth.

The essentials are true: a hard-luck background, serious obstacles, personal striving, substantive achievement. But it turns out Davis was 21, not 19, when she divorced, and she lived in a mobile home for only a few months before moving into an apartment with her daughter. Her second husband helped pay for her final two years of college and her Harvard education, a fact omitted from her campaign website, which mentioned only academic scholarships and student loans.

None of that is likely to sink Davis’ gubernatorial candidacy, in and of itself. But the dustup hardly helps. When a candidate’s appeal is so heavily reliant on biography, it’s important to get the basics right — especially as voters are just getting to know a candidate.

“My language should be tighter,” Davis told the Morning News in an interview. “I’m learning about using broader, looser language. I need to be more focused on the detail.”

On Monday, Davis released a chronology of her life, along with a flurry of tweets and a statement: “I’ve always been open about my life not because my story is unique, but because it isn’t.”

No candidacy goes entirely smoothly, and it is to Davis’ great benefit that the question marks about her background surfaced in January rather than July. But if a pattern of shaded truths or inconsistencies emerges over the coming weeks and months, an already difficult contest could quickly slip beyond the Democrat’s grasp.

Just ask Gary Hartpence.

Photo: The Texas Tribune via Flickr