Tag: u s intelligence
Donald Trump’s Intelligence Deficit

Donald Trump’s Intelligence Deficit

Reprinted with permission fromThe Washington Spectator.

Did President Barack Obama set Donald Trump up for four years of infighting with American intelligence agencies?

Obama, in one of his final acts before leaving office, took a hard line regarding allegations of Russian involvement in the U.S. presidential campaign. In addition to calling upon the Office of the National Intelligence Director to produce a comprehensive report on Russian electoral interference, the administration implemented new sanctions and gave the boot to over 30 Russian diplomats.

The DNI’s report, “Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections” also set Trump up. Though the final, unclassified document is a mere 25 pages, it summarizes findings from the National Security Agency, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and the Central Intelligence Agency regarding the scope, rationale, and implications of Russia’s hacking during the presidential election. We are told that the “influence campaign” sought to undermine public faith in the electoral process, that the Russian government overwhelmingly sought to denigrate Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton while expressing “a clear preference” for Trump, and that the entire operation was overseen by President Putin.

For Trump, who has referred to the investigation as a “political witch hunt”—a claim echoed by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov—the intelligence community’s certainty regarding Russian involvement is a major thorn in his new administration’s side. Trump’s comments put him at odds with numerous Republican lawmakers, many of whom acknowledged Russia’s involvement and called for a forceful U.S. response. And Trump and his staff’s antagonistic stance toward the mainstream narrative surrounding the hacks pitted him up against the national security apparatus—even before he took office.

Trump’s belligerence toward the intelligence community prompted by allegations of Russian involvement in the election has raised talk of restructuring and reform. According to a report in The Wall Street Journal from early January, Trump’s team aims to “restructure and pare back” the DNI as it has become “bloated and politicized.” A similar plan is allegedly in place for the CIA.

Spats between the White House and intelligence agencies are hardly new, though in decades past these feuds tended to be on policy grounds. Trump’s, however, is more personal. Despite months of asserting he would challenge the results of the “rigged” election if he lost, he appears to consider the investigation as a personal affront. The DNI is careful to note that Russian involvement did not necessarily sway the election, but Trump’s wounded ego and narcissistic pride make such details easy to ignore.

While it remains to be seen whether such changes in intelligence agencies occur—the Trump team has denied having any interest in “reforms”—the chatter itself is foreboding. Before Trump set foot in the White House, he began his own campaign of chaotic retribution. Now, the question is not whether he continues to wage war with the intelligence establishment—it is how far he is willing to go.

Hannah Gais is associate digital editor at The Washington Spectator.

IMAGE: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with county sheriffs at the White House in Washington, U.S. February 7, 2017.  REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Poll: Most Americans (And Most Republicans) Say Russia Is Hacking Democrats

Poll: Most Americans (And Most Republicans) Say Russia Is Hacking Democrats

By Alana Wise

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Most Republicans believe Russia is attempting to influence the U.S. presidential election, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, despite comments by the party’s nominee, Donald Trump, downplaying the possibility.

Some 55 percent of U.S. adults, including 51 percent of Republicans and 65 percent of Democrats, said they thought Russia was trying to tip the scales in the Nov. 8 presidential election, according to the survey.

Most American adults – 62 percent of Democrats and 48 percent of Republicans – think Putin is supporting Trump for the White House, the poll found.

Some 71 percent of those who suspect Russia of meddling believe Moscow is doing so through the recent hacks of Democratic emails, according to the Oct. 18-24 survey. But 57 percent of those who suspect Russian interference also believe Trump has “no involvement in Russia’s release of unflattering information” on his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton.

The U.S. government has accused Russia of a campaign of cyber attacks targeting the Democratic Party that has led to the release of thousands of illegally obtained emails, revealing the sometimes unflattering inner workings of the party, Clinton’s campaign, and her family’s charitable foundation.

Clinton has said she believes the Kremlin is trying to help Trump, calling her rival a “puppet” of the Russian leader. Trump has declined to implicate the country in any wrongdoing.

“I don’t think anybody knows it was Russia that broke into the (Democratic National Committee),” Trump said during the first presidential debate last month. He suggested the culprit could be anyone from Russia, to China or even “a 400-pound person lying in bed.”

Russia has denied it sponsors or encourages hacking activity. Russian President Vladimir Putin accused U.S. politicians on Thursday of whipping up “hysteria” about a nonexistent threat in order to distract voters.

Putin, who has described Trump as “very talented,” said on Thursday the New York businessman “behaves extravagantly” to “get through to voters’ hearts.”

Trump has said he is not close with Putin, but has also said he believes the Russian president is a stronger leader than U.S. President Barack Obama.

Already chilly relations between the United States and Russia have deteriorated over disagreements over the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria.

U.S. officials say U.S. agencies have concluded that two Russian intelligence agencies – the military’s GRU and the civilian foreign intelligence agency, the FSB – are behind U.S. political hacking, particularly that directed against Democratic Party organizations and individuals.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online in English, and included 2,008 American adults. It had a credibility interval, a measure of accuracy, of 3 percentage points.

(Additional reporting by Yara Bayoumy; Editing by Peter Cooney)

IMAGE: Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures as he addresses students during his visit to German Embassy school in Moscow, Russia, June 29, 2016. REUTERS/Alexander Zemlianichenko/Pool

Bleak Future For Afghanistan, U.S. Intelligence Says

Washington (AFP) – Progress in Afghanistan over the past three years is likely to be seriously eroded by 2017 even if Western powers continue to support Kabul financially, the Washington Post reported, citing an intelligence assessment.

A new National Intelligence Estimate — which includes input from 16 U.S. intelligence agencies — predicts that the Taliban and other powerbrokers will increase their influence even if the United States leaves behind a few thousand troops and continues to fund authorities in Kabul, the Post said in its Sunday edition.

U.S.-led NATO forces are withdrawing from Afghanistan after more than a decade of fighting the Taliban, but negotiations have stalled on a security accord that would allow some U.S. and NATO troops to stay after 2014.

President Hamid Karzai first endorsed the deal — which lays out rules for American troops, and would be the basis for other NATO forces — but later said it might not be signed until after the April election that will choose his successor.

Signing the agreement is a precondition for the delivery of billions of dollars in Western aid for Afghanistan over the next years.

The Post, citing officials who have seen the intelligence report, said that Afghanistan will likely plunge into chaos if the security agreement is not signed.

“In the absence of a continuing presence and continuing financial support,” the intelligence assessment “suggests the situation would deteriorate very rapidly,” a U.S. official familiar with the report told the Post, speaking on condition of anonymity.

However one official told the Post that the assessment was too pessimistic, and that there were too many variables to accurately predict Afghanistan’s future.

Some officials also believe that Afghanistan’s security forces are better prepared than the report states.

“I think what we’re going to see is a recalibration of political power, territory and that kind of thing. It’s not going to be an inevitable rise of the Taliban,” a U.S. official who thought the report was too negative told the Post.

The previous National Intelligence Estimate on Afghanistan came out three years ago, in December 2010. Such reports are typically produced ahead of major policy decisions.