Tag: wisconsin elections 2014
Midterm Roundup: Scott Walker Might Be In Trouble

Midterm Roundup: Scott Walker Might Be In Trouble

Here are some interesting stories on the midterm campaigns that you may have missed on Wednesday, October 15:

• Having failed to oust Republican governor Scott Walker with an unapologetically progressive challenge in 2012, Wisconsin Democrats are trying a new tactic this year: moderation. There are signs that Democrat Mary Burke’s centrist challenge is gaining steam: She has drawn even with Walker in the latest Marquette University Law School poll, and Walker now leads by less than 1 percent in the Real Clear Politicspoll average. But Walker still has one big advantage: His Republican base is a much safer bet to turn out in big numbers than Burke’s coalition.

• Due to the latest case of Ebola in Texas, President Barack Obama canceled his planned campaign rally in Connecticut with Governor Dannel Malloy. The Democratic incumbent could use all the help he can get in his re-election fight; he leads Republican Tom Foley by just 2 percent in the poll average.

• A new CNN/ORC poll of Colorado’s Senate race finds Republican Rep. Cory Gardner leading Democratic incumbent Mark Udall, 50 to 46 percent. The poll is the latest in a series to show Gardner in a good position, and he’s now up 2 percent in the poll average. Democrats maintain that Colorado polls have historically overestimated Republicans’ chances in Colorado, and that Udall’s support may be stronger than it presently appears.

• Two new polls find Republican Joni Ernst leading Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley in Iowa’s Senate race. Quinnipiac has Ernst up 47 to 45 percent, while USA Today/Suffolk University shows her up 47 to 43 percent. The surveys push Ernst’s narrow lead in the poll average up to 1.6 percent.

• And if you’re overwhelmed by all of the predictions from various election forecasters, this handy chart from The Upshot should help you keep them straight.

Photo: Gage Skidmore via Flickr

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In Wisconsin, Democrats Try Moderation In Fight With Scott Walker

In Wisconsin, Democrats Try Moderation In Fight With Scott Walker

By David Lauter, Tribune Washington Bureau

GREEN BAY, Wis. — Two years ago, politics here burned with a white-hot intensity.

Gov. Scott Walker, a Republican elected in 2010, had pushed a bill through the Legislature eliminating most collective bargaining rights for state workers. Unions and their Democratic allies sought to recall him from office. Republicans sought to recall Democratic legislators. The battles buried any notion of voter apathy, but they split families and sundered friendships.

Nearly a third of Wisconsin voters stopped speaking to someone they knew because of political disagreements that spring, the state’s leading poll, sponsored by Marquette University Law School, found at the time.

Walker survived that fight and became a national conservative hero. Now, as he seeks a second term, the state remains one of the most politically divided in America, but the temperature has returned closer to normal.

For Democrats, that’s a strategic choice. It’s also a problem.

Having failed to defeat Walker with an all-out ideological battle in the recall, party officials felt this year that their best course was to woo the middle of the electorate.

“In a midterm election, you need someone more moderate,” said state Sen. Dave Hansen, an outspoken liberal who represents a large chunk of this blue-collar city.

Enter Mary Burke, a wealthy former executive at Trek Bicycle Corp., which her father founded, and commerce secretary in the state’s last Democratic administration.

Environmentally conscious, socially liberal, pro-business and entrepreneurial in her outlook, Burke, who easily won the nomination to challenge Walker, embodies the approach of a Democratic Party that increasingly relies on the votes of upscale, suburban, college-educated voters.

She is the sort of candidate who comes alive during a half-hour PowerPoint presentation of her economic plan, discussing the intricacies of industrial clusters and the comparative advantages of advanced transit systems.

She also jokes that her father liked to hire his children because “he didn’t have to pay them as much” — not a line likely to appeal to unionized, blue-collar workers.

She downplays ideology, arguing that her business experience would help her find the best ideas to bring more jobs to the state.

“It doesn’t matter where ideas come from, whether they’re Democratic or Republican — just whether they’re going to get results,” she says in campaign speeches.

Burke has focused intensely on the state’s weak job market, has pounded Walker for his unfulfilled promise that the state would see 250,000 new jobs in his first term, and, notably, has declined to reopen the battle over the collective bargaining law.

She insists her approach does not reflect political calculation. “It’s just who I am,” she said in an interview before a campaign appearance here. “I grew up in a household that was independent.”

That effort has achieved at least one of its goals: Burke leads Walker 53 percent to 38 percent among likely voters who describe themselves as moderates, according to the most recent Marquette poll.

But such support has not been enough to overcome Walker’s rock-solid backing from conservatives and Republicans’ significantly greater likelihood of voting this fall. And it appears to be falling short in energizing Democratic voters.

College-educated voters form a smaller share of the electorate here than in states like Colorado or Virginia, where candidates with profiles somewhat similar to Burke’s have won recent contests, and Wisconsin’s suburbs are far more conservative than those in many other states.

Overall, Walker holds a 50 percent-45 percent edge among likely voters, the Marquette poll found. Burke leads among registered voters who say they are less likely to actually cast a ballot. While women polled support Burke 54 percent to 40 percent, Walker holds a much larger edge among men: 62 percent to 34 percent.

That’s left Democrats facing a familiar midterm dilemma: how to boost turnout among urban liberals and minorities without turning off more moderate, white voters.

Walker is happy to take advantage of that problem.

“There’s been a concerted effort on behalf of our opposition to try and not be as over-the-top as they were two years ago in the recall, but you’re starting to see signs that they’re having a hard time holding that,” he said after a recent appearance at a state technical college.

Between now and Election Day, Democratic attacks will grow more strident, he predicted. “Two years ago, I think some of those tactics hurt our opposition,” he added, with a slight smile.

Wisconsin provides an extreme example of two of the big trends shaping politics nationally — partisan polarization and an electorate that leans Democratic in presidential years, but toward the Republicans in between.

The state has gone Democratic in every presidential election for a generation, starting in 1988. In midterm elections, however, turnout drops sharply in its Democratic strongholds — Milwaukee, with its large black population, and Madison, with a huge contingent of students at the state university — and the voting population takes on a reddish hue.

Wisconsin’s two U.S. senators illustrate the result. Democrat Tammy Baldwin, elected in 2012, when President Barack Obama won his second term, is one of the chamber’s most liberal members. Republican Ron Johnson, who won in the nonpresidential election in 2010, is among the most conservative. No state has two senators ideologically further apart.

Walker has benefited from the polarization even as he has contributed to it. His victory in the recall demonstrated his ability to mobilize conservative voters, and as he prepares for an expected run for his party’s presidential nomination, he argues that Republicans should offer voters clear ideological choices.

The Marquette survey and others indicate that voters disagree with him on several major issues, including increasing the minimum wage, which he opposes, and expanding the state’s Medicaid program to reach more low-income adults, which he has blocked.

But even many of those who disagree with him give Walker high marks for decisive leadership. And as the state recovers from the depths of the recession, a majority see it being on the right track, blunting Burke’s attack.

Although Wisconsin has lagged behind the nation in creating new jobs, that problem pre-dated Walker, as even Burke concedes, reflecting a state that is heavily dependent on manufacturing.

And so, in the campaign’s closing weeks, Democrats are scrambling to boost turnout among voters who may not feel inspired by Burke’s appeals to the power of entrepreneurship. Unions and abortion-rights groups plan major efforts to try to close the gap.

At a recent rally in Milwaukee, headlined by Michelle Obama — one of two events the first lady has done for Burke this month — Rep. Gwen Moore, who represents a Milwaukee-area district heavy with black and Latino voters, sought to reassure the crowd about Burke’s bona fides.

“Mary went to Harvard,” she said, but drew her values from “plain old common sense.”

In the audience, 72-year-old Edwina Matthews, a retired teacher and Democratic Party activist, said she was convinced, but wasn’t so sure about her neighbors.

“We older black people know the domino effect” that an election “can have on our lives,” she said. “But younger blacks, no.”

“I like Mary Burke,” she added, “but I think Walker may get back in.”

Photo: Gage Skidmore via Flickr

Republican Walker Gains In Wisconsin, Brownback Struggles In Kansas

Republican Walker Gains In Wisconsin, Brownback Struggles In Kansas

By David Lauter, Los Angeles Times

WASHINGTON — New polls have clarified the status of some of the nation’s most competitive races for governor, with Republican Gov. Scott Walker apparently gaining ground in Wisconsin and another prominent conservative Republican, Gov. Sam Brownback, receiving more bad news in Kansas.

The battle for control of the U.S. Senate has received the lion’s share of attention in this election year, but races for governor will also provide clues about the national political mood as well as pointers for the coming presidential election.

A loss by Brownback, for example, would be widely interpreted as an indication that he tried to move the state too far to the right, even for deeply Republican Kansas. A win by Walker, however, would indicate that his policies have gained support in a state that leans to the Democrats — at least in presidential years — and would bolster his hopes of running for the Republican presidential nomination.

The latest Wisconsin survey by Marquette Law School, the state’s leading poll, found Walker ahead of his Democratic opponent, Mary Burke, 50 to 45 percent among likely voters. Last month, the poll found Walker leading by 3 percentage points among likely voters, and Burke led during the summer.

The two candidates were virtually tied among all registered voters. The gap reflects the big challenge Democrats face in many states: persuading their voters to show up in a non-presidential election.

Walker leads in the survey even though voters disagree with him on several major issues, in some cases by large margins. The poll showed that a majority in the state supports raising the minimum wage, for example, and expanding the state’s Medicaid program as allowed under President Obama’s health care law. Walker opposes both moves.

But voters by nearly 2 to 1 see Walker as a decisive leader, the poll found, and, by 54 to 43 percent, say the state is on the right track.

The Marquette poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points in either direction.

In Kansas, a poll for USA Today by Suffolk University found Brownback trailing his Democratic opponent Paul Davis, 46 to 42 percent. That’s in line with several other recent polls that have shown Davis with a small lead.

Forty-four percent of those polled said they felt the state’s economy had gotten worse in two years, 35 percent said it had stayed about the same, and only 19 percent said it had improved. Democrats have alleged that cuts in taxes and state services pushed by Brownback went too far and have harmed the state.

The poll also showed longtime Sen. Pat Roberts trailing independent candidate Greg Orman in the state’s hotly contested Senate race. Orman drew 46 percent to Roberts’ 41 percent. Asked for the first word or phrase that came to mind when they heard Roberts’ name, the most frequent responses were “in office too long” or “needs to retire,” mentioned by 16 percent of those polled, and “old” or “elderly,” mentioned by 9 percent.

The Suffolk/USA Today poll also has a margin of error of 4 percentage points in either direction.

Several other contests for governor remain in the coin toss category, including races in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Florida and Maine, where the presence of an independent candidate, Eliot Cutler, has impeded Democrat Mike Michaud’s efforts to unseat Republican Paul LePage. Cutler’s fortunes have faded in recent polls, giving Michaud a slightly larger edge in a race that remains too close to call.

Photo: Gage Skidmore via Flickr

Midterm Roundup: Grimes Isn’t Done Yet In Kentucky

Midterm Roundup: Grimes Isn’t Done Yet In Kentucky

Here are some interesting stories on the midterm campaigns that you may have missed on Wednesday, October 1:

• Democratic Senate candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes released an internal poll finding her 2 points ahead of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). Although such polls should always be taken with a grain of salt — especially when they contradict public surveys (McConnell leads by 5.3 percent in the Real Clear Politics poll average) — it should be noted that pollster Mark Mellman has a history of outperforming the competition.

• In other Kentucky news, on Wednesday former president Bill Clinton made his first appearance in a Grimes campaign ad.

• Senator Pat Roberts’ (R-KS) political troubles keep mounting. A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll finds Independent candidate Greg Orman ahead of Roberts, 46 to 42 percent. Making matters worse for the three-term incumbent, The Hillreports that Kansas Tea Party groups are now threatening to sit the election out. Orman leads by 5.3 percent in the poll average.

• Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race is still a tossup. On Wednesday, a Marquette University Law School poll found incumbent Republican Scott Walker leading Democratic challenger Mary Burke among likely voters, 50 to 45 percent. He leads by just 1 point among registered voters. The poll comes one day after a Gravis Marketing survey showed Burke up 50 to 45 percent among registered voters. Walker leads by 1.8 percent in the poll average.

• And Republicans have uncovered another inconvenient case of voter fraud: Leslie Rutledge, the GOP candidate for attorney general in Arkansas, had her voter registration canceled after the Pulaski county clerk discovered that she is also registered to vote in Washington DC, and possibly Virginia.

Photo: Patrick Delahanty via Wikimedia Commons