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Saturday, October 22, 2016

The polls this week continue to show that the Republican race is anyone’s game, and that Hillary Clinton is leading both nationally and in key swing states.

A poll of Iowa commissioned by the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association — an ethanol and biodiesel industry group — gives Scott Walker the lead in the state’s Republican caucuses with 19 percent, followed by Ben Carson at 13 percent, Jeb Bush 11 percent, Marco Rubio 9 percent, and Mike Huckabee rounding out the top five slots with 8 percent.

The Suffolk University poll of New Hampshire this week showed Hillary Clinton ahead of Bernie Sanders by only a surprisingly narrow margin, 41 percent to 31 percent.

Monmouth University’s national poll put Ben Carson narrowly in first with 11 percent, edging out Scott Walker with 10 percent, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio at 9 percent each, and Mike Huckabee at 8 percent to just make the top five.

Democratic-aligned firm Public Policy Polling has a national GOP primary poll with Scott Walker at 17 percent, Jeb Bush 15 percent, Marco Rubio 13 percent, Ben Carson 12 percent, and Mike Huckabee 11 percent. Hillary Clinton also leads all the Republican contenders by various margins.

And for the general election — and the Electoral College, where the presidency is really won — Quinnipiac University has a set of polls from the three biggest swing states, testing Hillary Clinton against a variety of Republican opponents.

In Florida, Clinton leads all tested Republican contenders — including both of the state’s favorite sons in the race, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio:

  • Clinton 46 percent, Christie 35 percent
  • Clinton 46 percent, Paul 39 percent
  • Clinton 49 percent, Huckabee 38 percent
  • Clinton 46 percent, Bush 42 percent
  • Clinton 47 percent, Rubio 44 percent
  • Clinton 48 percent, Walker 38 percent
  • Clinton 48 percent, Cruz 37 percent
  • Clinton 48 percent, Kasich 35 percent

In Ohio, Clinton has leads over most of the Republicans, but trails hometown Governor John Kasich and is tied with Rand Paul

  • Clinton 44 percent, Christie 39 percent
  • Tie: Clinton 43 percent, Paul 43 percent
  • Clinton 46 percent, Huckabee 41 percent
  • Clinton 42 percent, Bush 41 percent
  • Clinton 45 percent, Rubio 42 percent
  • Clinton 44 percent, Walker 40 percent
  • Clinton 47 percent, Cruz 39 percent
  • Kasich 47 percent, Clinton 40 percent

Pennsylvania is a mix of tight contests, or some stronger Clinton leads, depending on the Republican opponent:

  • Clinton 43 percent, Christie 41 percent
  • Paul 45 percent, Clinton 44 percent.
  • Clinton 46 percent, Huckabee 39 percent
  • Clinton 45 percent, Bush 41 percent
  • Rubio 44 percent, Clinton 43 percent
  • Clinton 46 percent, Walker 41 percent
  • Clinton 47 percent, Cruz 40 percent
  • Clinton 45 percent, Kasich 39 percent

Photo: Hillary Clinton via Facebook

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Copyright 2015 The National Memo
  • Dominick Vila

    Polls at this early stage of the 2016 presidential campaign are meaningless. A better idea of how things are shaping up, based on public opinion and donations, will become evident towards the end of this year. Having said that, there is no question that Hillary is the person to beat for the Democratic nomination. Clearly, the Republican nomination is up for grabs. At this point it is easier to determine who doesn’t have a chance to win, than who are the likely GOP finalists.

    • Eleanore Whitaker

      Dominick (Love your first name by the way. It’s my patron saint’s name.), I’m curious. Who at this point do you believe doesn’t have a chance to win?

      I respect and admire Bernie Sanders. But, I also know after more than 3 decades as a Republican, there is nothing more appealing to the GOP than for Sanders to beat Hillary. Why? Because it will mean another 8 years of obstruction, fearmongering and biased media loaded with distortions of truth and facts.

      Sanders is a great statesman who deserves much honor. But, as president? He will mowed down to size just like Obama. It is always easier for GOP men to do battle with their own gender. When they have to do battle with a female opponent, they hesitate to be seen as “abusive” and outlandishly macho.

      • Dominick Vila

        The Democratic contenders 6 months from now are likely to be Hillary and Bernie.
        Predictions as to who will win the GOP nomination are much more difficult. I believe Santorum, Jindal, Huckabee, Perry, Cruz, Trump, and Fiorina are distractions, without a realistic chance to win. IMO, the GOP nomination race is between Bush, Walker, Paul, and Rubio.
        My Saint’s Day is St. Dominick of Silos…

        • Eleanore Whitaker

          Lol…Obviously, we are both of Italian extraction. You seem to call it right every time. I have to strongly agree with you. It will come down to Sanders and Hillary on the Dem side and the 4 you posted on the GOP side.

          In the finals though? Hard to say. I’m definitely not hoping a Clinton vs. Bush finale.

          • 788eddie

            I love this comment thread, but we also need to hold our enthusiasm in check. Once the Repubs have chosen (i.e. blessed) a candidate, many of their number will coalesce around that person (some of the “fringe” may also simply stay home on election day). My point is that The poll numbers for the Republican candidate vs. Hillary are likely to get considerably closer.

            My hope is that all of the members on the “Clown Bus” will end up spending their billionaires money fighting each other, and just maybe, dry up the money pond a bit.

          • Bob Eddy

            While that is true, the Republican party is a very damaged brand. They will have to appeal to independents and some Democrats to win. I don’t see many of them that could do that…especially once they begin pandering to the radical right in order to win primaries.

          • Eleanore Whitaker

            If Cotton, Bolton, Inhofe, Ryan, Walker, Cruz, Hensarling, Gowdy and Rubio are any example of what the GOP is offering, this is going to be a shoo in for Hillary.

            I would have loved it if Bernie Sanders had been a candidate in 2000 and 2004. Absent him from those elections, now Sanders would be chop meat in the hands of the GOP attack dogs. This is why, although I respect and admire Sanders, I will NOT vote for another male the GOP can play Dungeons and Dragons with.

          • Eleanore Whitaker

            The reality of the GOP party is that it is male dominated. How will that EVER fly with all the accomplished, self-reliant, self-supporting multitudes of women up north?

            It will work in the south and midwest where women are more financially dependent and fall on every word out of any man’s mouth.

            This is the real reason why, Hillary or not, a woman will be president. Too many women in Congress see how obstructive men are with each other, not to mention sidelining women to the back burner as often as they can.

            With Donald Trump now running for President, what will he do when Putin disagrees with this wealthy little tyrant? Yell, “You’re Fired?”

            As Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg so eloquently put it, “men on the SC believe their opinions are MORE valid than the women on the court. This is why we need an equal number of women on the court and in government.”

            I totally agree.It shouldn’t be about gender. Men MAKE it about gender when they battle with each other for Numero Uno and then pretend deafness when any intelligent woman sees things in a more progressive light.

          • 788eddie

            I find nothing discomforting about your comment, Eleanor. Let’s hope you’re as prescient as I think you are.

          • Eleanore Whitaker

            While I absolutely am in favor of Bernie Sanders, I also know that he is being salivated over like he was prime rib by the attack dogs of the GOP. If Sanders becomes president, he will give the GOP exactly what they wanted: another 8 years of delay they turn into mass profit for their states while they decimate the rest of the country.

            Look at the male dominated GOP like this…Man to man…they have no compunctions about eating a Dem president for lunch. But, put a woman in the presidency and the scenario makes these attack dogs look like what they really are: predators. No GOP male wants to be seen as an “abuser” of women. That’s why a woman has the edge in getting things done where a male, won’t.

          • Dominick Vila

            My ancestors were all from Spain which, as you know, was part of the Roman Empire once upon a time. There were a lot of Italians in the part of Brooklyn where I was born in the 1930s…

  • Bob Eddy

    A couple of the contenders look competitive at this point, this is when everyone knows who Hilary is and little of the Republican candidate. And mostly what people have heard is right wing slander. I suspect the 2014 choice will do no better than Mitt Romney who spent a billion dollars and did not move the needle. Finished with almost the exact electoral votes he left the convention with. For the most part, people don’t start liking a Republican better as they get to know him.

  • Whatmeworry

    Yea the polls have been pot on over the past years

    • Yea the gop have been on pot on over the past years

    • Daniel Max Ketter

      My boy lewis has worked the poles, but I think he gave up pot many years ago.