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Tuesday, March 26, 2019

It’s the weekend before the New Hampshire primary. And all eyes are on the polls for both sides.

For the Democrats, Bernie Sanders appears very likely to win this race, taking place next door to his own home state of Vermont. The big question is by how much — both because it could deliver him more delegates under the party’s system of proportional representation, and to see what kind of momentum he (or Clinton) can try to claim going into the next states of Nevada and South Carolina. Both of those next states are commonly viewed as being more natural territory for Hillary than for Bernie.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump has long been ahead in this state, in a heavily divided field. However, his second-place loss to Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses may have blunted his momentum going into this contest — while at the same time, third-place Iowa finisher Marco Rubio is surging here, perhaps as establishment-friendly voters gather around him. But if Trump still pulls off the win here, he might very well get back on top of the media narrative once more.

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

  • The University of Massachusetts-Lowell tracking poll has Trump at 34 percent, Rubio 15 percent, Cruz 14 percent, Bush 9 percent, and Kasich 8 percent.
  • Suffolk University has Trump at 29 percent, Rubio 19 percent, Kasich 13 percent, Bush 10 percent, and Cruz 7 percent.
  • The WBUR poll has Trump at 29 percent, plus 12 percent each for Rubio and Cruz, and 9 percent each for Bush and Kasich.
  • The NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College poll has Trump with 30 percent, Rubio 17 percent, Cruz 15 percent, Kasich 10 percent, and Bush 9 percent.
  • CNN has Trump at 29 percent, Rubio 18 percent, Cruz 13 percent, John Kasich 12 percent, and Jeb Bush 10 percent.

Photo: Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton shake hands in the midst of the debate. REUTERS/Mike Segar

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10 responses to “This Week In Polls: Don’t Take New Hampshire For Granite”

  1. JPHALL says:

    Polls are a joke!

    • Independent1 says:

      Yes, to many of us. But unfortunately, I think a lot of low information voters use them to bias their voting – thinking that candidates that rank well in polls must be good, because a lot of people are choosing them – so why shouldn’t I vote for the ones leading in the polling. This is why I think in 2012, there were polls that were claiming Mitt Romney was going to win by a landslide; politically biased polling organizations hoping that spreading that lie would swing some voters to Romney. This is why I think publishing polls should be banned within 3-6 weeks of an election.

      • yabbed says:

        Federal control of the media is not a good thing. 🙂

        • Independent1 says:

          Yes, but partisan media outlets (like Faux News and others) publishing biased poll results in an effort to bias election results is even a worse thing. 🙂 It can often put corrupt politicians into office that should not have been voted in; politicians who can create havoc for the whole nation. America has no idea just how enormous a bullet America dodged when Mitt Romney was not elected.

      • Andrew Freeland says:

        Possibly; that’s an idea; implementation might be difficult, though. Perhaps public service announcements, emphasizing that these are merely ‘snapshots’ – not an indication of a particular candidate’s merit.

    • FT66 says:

      Very much so. A big joke.

      • bernieo says:

        But the media uses them to spin us. For example, one recent poll shows Bernie almost tied with Hillary nationally. The media is saying they are now tied, ignoring the fact that only one poll (Quninnipiac) shows Bernie that close. They love a horse race so much they are willing to give unlimited time and attention to unqualified candidates, making their poll numbers go up. (PThey also hate the Clintons so they cherry pick negative numbers to make her look weak. If Bernie is the candidate I guarantee they will turn on him as too liberal – which was their rap against Hillary when Bill was in office, believe it or not. They are so into faux balance it is hard to imagine them not trashing Bernie if he is the nominee

  2. yabbed says:

    Here is America as Americans describe themselves:
    24% say they are liberal
    34% say they are moderate
    38% say they are conservative

    So, Bernie Sanders cannot win a general election. Even 54% of Democrats say they won’t vote for a Socialist.

  3. Andrew Freeland says:

    I like Bernie, but I’m supporting Hillary; I think she’s ultimately much less controversial than Bernie would be (in a general election) with his democratic ‘socialist’ self-label, and his even more generous spending ideas. If Bernie gets the Dem nod, I will vote for him – but I fear a repeat of 1972 – and then a Repub clean sweep (House, Senate, Presidency) – OUCH!

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