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Friday, October 21, 2016

It’s been a complex week of polling, with some concerning numbers for Democrats — and for Republicans, too.

The political world was abuzz this week with a Quinnipiac University poll showing Hillary Clinton trailing multiple Republican opponents in three key swing states: Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia. Tested against three Republicans — Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Scott Walker — Clinton trailed by narrow or even moderately strong margins in each. (Two other Democrats, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, were also tested against those Republicans — and they both did worse pretty much across the board.)

On the other hand, a Pew Research national survey shows some very promising fundamentals for Democrats versus Republicans. The Democratic Party has a favorable rating of 48 percent, and an unfavorable number of 47 percent — close, but way ahead of the Republican Party at only 32 percent favorable, and 60 percent unfavorable.

In addition, the Democrats have advantages in some key fundamentals, broken down below:

  • Better manages federal government: Democrats 41 percent, Republicans 40 percent.
  • Governs in a more honest and ethical way: Democrats 45 percent, Republicans 29 percent.
  • “Concerned with people like me”: Democrats 53 percent, Republicans 31 percent

Republicans are also way, way ahead — in a bad category, “More extreme in its positions”: Republicans 52 percent, Democrats 35 percent.

In the presidential horse race, the big news that started this week off was the ABC News/Washington Post poll showing Donald Trump with a commanding first place lead of 24 percent of Republican voters, nearly double the second-place showing of Walker at 13 percent, followed by Bush with 12 percent, Rubio at 9 percent, and Mike Huckabee with 7 percent.

On the Democratic side, the ABC/Washington Post survey had Clinton at 62 percent, Sanders and Biden tied at 14 percent each, Jim Webb 2 percent, and Lincoln Chafee and Martin O’Malley with 1 percent each. (Note: Vice President Biden is not currently running for president, but has been included in many polls.)

In addition, a survey from Morning Consult had The Donald in first place among Republicans with 22 percent, then Bush at 15 percent, Walker 12 percent, Ben Carson 8 percent, and Huckabee 7 percent.

Democratic-aligned firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) has Trump in first place nationally with 19 percent, then Walker at 17 percent, Bush 12 percent, and Carson and Rubio at 10 percent each.

Fun side note: The Donald loves to say that the people who are really eager to attack him are the ones at 0 percent, so that they might get some attention. His new arch-nemesis Senator Lindsey Graham is at… 0 percent. (His other great enemy, former Texas governor Rick Perry, is at 1 percent.)

On the Democratic side, PPP has Clinton with a commanding lead at 57 percent, followed way behind by Sanders at 22 percent, Webb 5 percent, Chafee 3 percent, and O’Malley 2 percent.

PPP also tested a number of general election matchups.

With Clinton as the Democratic nominee:

  • Clinton 46 percent, Bush 41 percent
  • Clinton 47 percent, Carson 39 percent
  • Clinton 46 percent, Chris Christie 38 percent
  • Clinton 48 percent, Ted Cruz 40 percent
  • Clinton 47 percent, Carly Fiorina 37 percent
  • Clinton 46 percent, Mike Huckabee 40 percent
  • Clinton 45 percent, Rand Paul 42 percent
  • Clinton 46 percent, Rubio 41 percent
  • Clinton 50 percent, Trump 37 percent
  • Clinton 46 percent, Walker 41 percent

There was also a special three-way matchup, in which Trump was put forward as an independent: Clinton 43 percent, Bush 25 percent, Trump 23 percent. Ouch.

With Sanders as the Democratic nominee for a few tested heats, Republicans are performing much better:

  • Bush 44 percent, Sanders 37 percent
  • Rubio 41 percent, Sanders 36 percent
  • Sanders 47 percent, Trump 37 percent
  • Walker 40 percent, Sanders 39 percent

And finally, in a key early state contest, the new Monmouth University poll of Iowa’s Republican caucuses has Walker, the governor of neighboring Wisconsin, with a huge lead at 22 percent, followed by Trump with 13 percent, Carson 8 percent, and Bush and Cruz with 7 percent each.

Photo: U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at a campaign event in West Columbia, South Carolina, July 23, 2015. (REUTERS/Chris Keane)

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Copyright 2015 The National Memo
  • Dominick Vila

    One of the byproducts of the Trump phenomena is that he has managed to attract the full attention of the media, that he is controlling the agenda and, by default, public opinion. This circumstance, the highly effective demonization campaign carried out by the GOP against Hillary Clinton, and to a lesser extent Bernie Sanders, and the inability of the Democratic party to fight back effectively, is bearing fruit. From Benghazi to e-mail gate, from evil socialism to Trump’s selfies, the GOP is gaining ground in an election that should have produced a Democratic landslide.
    So much for the truth, facts, relevant proposals, and a vision. What is dominating public opinion, again, is gimmicks, hot air, pseudo scandals, evidence of hatred, and a sense of fear of change that borders on paranoia.

    • Bob Eddy

      Of course, at this time, the Republican freak show us getting all the press and still Clinton leads I most polls. Remember in the general election when it is one on one and people get to see one crazy from a party the instinctively don’t trust against Hillary they most likely will choose Hillary. For all the demonization they have conducted,the results have been pretty minuscule.

    • charleo1

      You are correct, Trump and a very uncomfortable Right are dominating the headlines. But they are also running the risk of eliminating themselves from serious consideration when the larger electorate finally weighs in next year.
      As to the perception that Hillary, or the Democratic Party is not fighting back. When one’s opponents are making fools of themselves, I say, why interrupt them? When Jeb Bush proposes eliminating Medicare as we know it. I say let the man speak! When Senator Ted Cruz calls the Majority Leader of his Party a liar, I hope as many Reaganites as possible are hearing that. When Scott Walker compares his stripping public sector workers of their collective bargaining rights, and getting away with it. To taking on and defeating Mid-East terrorists. Let’s see if saying something like that resonates with work a day Americans who’s salaries barely cover their rent each month. Or when Mike Huckabee allows that it would be fine with him if we ignore the decisions of the Supreme Court, if we happen to disagree with them. That since they are unelected, their credibility is questionable. That a higher law found in the Bible is perfectly acceptable. And that the prism he would view his duties as President thru. And see how the majority of Americans feel about all that stuff we might have never heard about, if they weren’t getting the loin’s share of the press.

      • Dominick Vila

        You forgot to mention Jeb saying that Americans, who are working 40 to 60 hours a week, should work harder; Trump insulting veterans and suggesting that the best approach to fight ISIS is to destroy Iraq’s oil wells and then send EXXON to rebuild them, and several other claims or “solutions” that had they been articulated by President Obama the far right would have gone crazy citing articles of impeachment.
        In a perfect world, statements like the ones you mentioned, and those above, would have been enough to destroy the credibility of a political party or, as a minimum, the credibility of the morons that made them, but we don’t live in a perfect world. Don’t forget who has the support of about 30 states, won a large majority in the House, and a comfortable majority in the Senate. I take nothing for granted. We must hit them hard, relentlessly, and as ruthlessly as they do to us.

        • charleo1

          I don’t believe there’s any doubt Trump is killing the GOP right now, in terms of the general election. Which, if he stays in, and keeps talking, and the base keeps supporting his ’30s Klan-like approach on immigration, and his no holds barred bombast against the GOP. Their voters will stay home by the droves and that across the board landslide for the Dems could happen yet. If Hillary were asking me for campaign advise, which she is not of course. I would advise her to do just as she’s doing. To say as little as possible at this point about Trump. Be clear, about the propriety, and legality of her actions as SOS on the e-mail flap. And allow the nature, and most importantly, the target of the DOJ investigation to come out. That will put the matter to rest for the wide majority of those who would support her, long before election day. Secondly, other than pounding the GOP hard as the Party that supports another Mid-East War. I believe her message of economic populism, being expounded upon so successfully to the Democratic Left by Sanders, should remain a major theme. Talking about a bought out, shill for the rich, Party, that tanked the economy, bailed out the banks, then told hard hit Americans needing help, they were on their own. The last time they had a President in the WH. he almost took us down. But, a determined President Barack Obama, reigned in the Wall Street gamblers, saved the car companies, put millions back to work, etc. and bought the American economy back from the brink. And, of course, close the deal with, we need to make sure to elect Hillary to build on that progress. This cogent, responsible message then is being juxtaposed against a brawling, bloviating Trump, haranguing a disarrayed bumbling Right trying desperately to communicate to their voters above the din of themselves.

  • etta.bartlett2


  • terry b

    Only those who favor fascism over democracy would vote against Clinton. Those who voted for Obama have no other choice then to vote for Clinton.