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Sunday, October 23, 2016

A Ticking Time Bomb: The Arab Spring And America's Lost Generation

High unemployment pushed young people in the Middle East and North Africa to revolt. Why wouldn’t it happen here?

Is it useful to think of the Occupy movement more as a “left” movement or a “youth” movement? To answer that question, it’s worth looking into data on the young, particularly as it relates to unemployment.

To leave the United States for a minute, one way people are trying to understand the Arab Spring is through the lens of massive youth unemployment and inequality. Given how high unemployment has been in these MENA (Middle-East and North African) countries, what else could we expect besides revolution?

For instance, in early February then-IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn told a conference, “this summer I made a speech in Morocco about the question of youth employment including Egypt, Tunisia, saying it is a kind of time bomb” and “such a high level of unemployment, especially youth unemployment, and such a high level of inequality in the country create a social situation that may end in unrest.” Here is the “youth unemployment” blog tag at the IMF to give you a sense of what people there have been saying about it. In particular, they point out that it should be a major concern for the MENA and African regions.

Interestingly enough, it was even a concern before the mass protests broke out. Regional IMF officials Ratna Sahay and Alan MacArthur gave a presentation on January 23rd, “Challenges for Egypt in the Post Crisis World,” at the Egyptian Center for Economic Studies in Cairo (h/t WSJ). Protests would begin a few days later. Here’s a key slide from that presentation:

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  • akw

    I got my. MBA from a top 10 program in 1990, last of many recessions ago. I had a hard time getting a job and then just have to make do and took lower level jobs to survive. My MBA did not give my career a boost, bad timing, but this is just part of life and economic cycle. When the space program ended, we had PhD’s driving cab, so we have seen the economic cycle before. The rich and powerful will protect themselves as before. Changes will come, but incremental and slow.