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Wednesday, September 28, 2016

What Would A Good Jobs Report Have Looked Like?

The same old miserable numbers came out today, nowhere near what we need.

I feel like I’m in the movie Groundhog Day when it comes to the job numbers. I wake up on the first Friday each month to the same story — subpar job growth, no budging in key indicators, the insanity of the “anti-stimulus” of bleeding government jobs – and then wake up to it again next month. This month looks like the past dozen: 80,000 jobs were created, while the government sector shed 24,000 jobs.

We need a list of other words because I’m exhausted with describing how disappointing the job numbers are, especially when the results are so obvious given a lack of movement on fiscal and monetary stimulus. So let me instead describe what a good jobs numbers report would have looked like.

First of all, there would have been job growth that gets us back to full employment instead of job growth that is slightly around the rate of population growth. There would be well over 150,000 jobs created a month, ideally above 200,000 — there’s a lot of catching up to do. The key indicator to watch is the employment-population ratio, which is the percentage of the workforce that has a job. As unemployment only indicates the number of people actively searching for a job, and many are dropping out of the labor force and giving up on finding a job, the unemployment rate tells us less and less. And if the population is growing faster than the number of jobs created, we are losing out. The employment-population ratio tells us the actual rate at which we are employing people. It is currently at 58.4 percent, the same it was in January 2011.

A tourniquet would have been applied to the bleeding of public sector jobs. This is the worst time to push government workers into the ranks of the unemployed. With slack capacity, a high number of unemployed people, and negative real interest rates, we can’t afford a war against government workers. It’s a war in which we’ve lost 250,000 government jobs since January, with 77,000 in the “local government education” category (in other words, public school teachers).

  • Dougjd

    JOBS JOBS JOBS – WHY NOT MANUFACTURE PRODUCTS “MADE IN USA” AND PUT PEOPLE BACK TO WORK.
    Manufacture the more expensive items in the USA.

    Let the smaller items be made overseas so the low income people can afford them.

  • music_blue

    Ok, so the Republican silver bullet is to make the rich richer. Eliminate the EPA, DOE, Dept of Ed, Dept. of Labor, etc because they annoy the corporations? Lower taxes on the rich? These only make the corporations more profitable which they will probably pay out in higher bonuses or stock dividends. We are still waiting for the trickle down that was promised by GW.

  • DaleCuthbrtson

    CAREER POLITICIANS

    Have we learned nothing in the past 10 years?
    While the Democrats / Republicans , Argue over who is right – who should be in control ?

    AMERICA SUFFERS!

    The real enemy of Democracy has shown it’s Ugly head – WHO ?

    The CAREER POLITICIAN the – STAGNATED – CESSPOOLS OF WASHINGTON.
    These are the old men on the hill who have lost site of what America is all about

    Who have no vision for America , or the American dream !

    They wear the Disguise of public servants – while only serving themselves , and it does not matter what party they belong to !

    Americans crave – REAL change

    But will never have it until we clean house, and get out all the crooks
    VOTE OUT ALL THE CAREER POLITICIANS ON BOTH SIDES !

    WAKE UP AMERICA……………………..!

    VOTE FOR THAT REASON

    D.W.C.

  • DaleCuthbrtson

    AMERICA origional written- 10 2010

    UNTIL THIS COUNTRY STOPS THE WARS AND TURNS IT’S HEART AND MIND BACK TO THE PEOPLE OF AMERICA —– NOTHING OBAMA OR ANY OTHER POLITICIAN DOES WILL PROSPER!

    GOD HAS TURNED HIS BACK ON AMERICA! – WE LOVE TO SPOUT THE PHRASE
    (GOD BLESS AMERICA!)

    BUT PLAINLY LOOK AROUND YOU AT THE HOMLESS THE HUNGRY AND THOSE WHO HAVE LOST EVERYTHING. —- ( – IS GOD BLESSING AMERICA ? – )

    WE THOUGHT WE HAD THIS IN THE DEMS, OBAMA — SOMEONE WHO WOULD PUT THE COUNTRY BACK ON THE RIGHT TRACK ?

    WHAT WE HAVE GOTTEN IS MORE LIES AND DESCEIT AS POLICIES IN WASHINGTON HELP THE RICH AND ( MIDDLE CLASS AMERICA SLOWLY DISSAPEARS! )

    WE HAVE A CHOICE THIS NOV. CONTINUE THE INSANITY COMING OUT OF WASHINGTON OR SEND A CLEAR MESSAGE WE HAVE HAD ENOUGH WE ARE TIRED OF BEING IGNORED!

    (THE DEFINITION OF INSANITY): DOING THE SAME BEHAVIOR AND EXSPECTING DIFFERENT RESULTS ! )

    THAT IS WHAT WE HAVE BEEN DOING THE PAST 12 YEARS — AS WE SWALLOW THE LIES AND DESCIET OF POLITICIANS ( THE 2 PARTY SYSTEM!)

    OUR CHOICES ARE LIMITED THIS NOVEMBER BUT IN 2012 A BOLD NEW SET OF INDEPENDANTS WILL APPEAR TO GIVE US THE CHOICES WEE SEEK IF WE VERY CARFULLY LISTEN TO WHAT THEY ARE SAYING AND NOT SAYING!

    Get out and vote in NOV. we need to send a clear message to Washington
    Stop the insanity! We will not be ignored any longer!

    Wake up America………………..!

  • DaleCuthbrtson

    CONTRACT WITH AMERICA
     
    Washington is broken we need real and lasting change !
    #1
    Any senator or congress person running will sign a contract with America, Listing their goals, things he/she wants to change. At the end of 4 years if they have not met 35% of their goals they cannot run again for re- election. (They will be Ignored.)
    #2
    Any senator or congress member will not be considered for any type of pension until their second term in office.
    #3
    All senators and congress will pay 20% of their own health care.
    #4 Any senator or congress person who is discharged for less than honorable conditions forfeits any rights to a pension and health insurance.
    #5 Any
    senator congress person caught up in illegal activity will be summarily discharged And the Governor of their state will appoint a replacement FOR THE REMAINDER OF THEIR TERM.
    We the AMERICAN people are tired of the political infighting and demand these changes starting in 2012 election and there after. ( Every election.)
    WE WILL NOT BE IGNORED ANY LONGER!
    The very first question we should ask any candidate running for office is
    HAVE YOU SIGNED a contract with AMERICA.
    IF NOT IGNORE THEM! Sorry we only support candidates who do sign a contract with America.
    We have the power folks , If we stick together.
    WAKE UP AMERICA………………………………………!
     
    Change comes from new ideas and when people push those ideas
    Although we cannot enforce the precepts of this contract.
    Until the laws are changed
    We can file a class action lawsuit against any candidate, who does default on a contract with America.
    And the millions collected given to charities
    Until we stand together we will never see change in Washington.
    “There are two primary choices in life: to accept conditions as they exist, or accept the responsibility for changing them.”
     
    D.W.C.

  • mpjt16

    The craziest part of the focus on jobs is that no one seems to want to acknowledge the fact that there is minimal demand for residential or commercial construction. What percent of the labor force are carpenters, sheet rockers, tapers, plumbers, etc.? This segment of the work force will not be going back to work anytime soon unless they change careers. It would seem that some news media type would research this and determine the “fixed” rate of unemployment. The variable rate would be those careers that are not quite as immobilized as the construction careers are.
    Maybe 9% is all anyone can expect and both parties can stop claiming supremacy in job creation ideas.
    The proposed “Contract With America” is another great idea whose time will never come. In addition to the ideas proposed there should be a term limits clause. There should not be any retirement plan, just a 401k sponsored by the government.
    If a politician stays in office for very long they learn how to game the system and then they get wrapped up with their special interests and we are screwed. They may be great people with great ideas but there are a lot of smart people out there. Almost anyone reading or submitting to this column could be an effective Congressman or Senator. The positions have become more about building a career then about serving for the countries good. The caucus and re-election rule.
    The recent plan to reduce mail to five days a week is another interesting one. Why not just three days a week. If something is really urgent there are many overnight options. Let the change happen only through attrition, not buy-outs as proposed. There must be a lot of postal employees who are over fifty. The system will be fine in a relatively few years and we would not need massive layoffs or expensive buyouts to effect the change and reduce the cost.

  • DollarsnSense

    Our country is not stable, and we all know it is because of the greed that is rampant! We need a Roosevelt or a Clinton to get this Country back on track!!
    The middle-class and poor need jobs! Our country needs the revenue from these
    created jobs. What is taking sooooo long? Where are the brilliant politicians
    that are earning over and beyond what they are WORTH??
    We have to Tax the big Corporations and the Wealthy and all the Institutions that
    do not pay their fair share of taxes.
    They made their bundle off of this country…It has to be that they part with some
    of it!!!
    the GOP …. Americans Public Enemy no. 1

  • Judy Schlegel

    Be careful. Not everyone in Washington is corrupt. Obama has tried, but the Republicans have blocked him every step of the way. Please don’t vote every incumbent out. Too many people did that last year, and that’s why we have the problems we have now.
    The Republicans have stated that their primary goal is to limit Obama to one term. They do not care about the people. If they have to keep unemployment high to get rid of Obama, they’ll do it. Please do some studying before voting. Look at who is trying to work for ordinary people. And be careful about believing what said ion the election campaigns.
    The worst thing that can happen to this country is to have a Republican president. That would be the end of Social Security, the end of Medicare and Medicaid, the end of student loans, the end of the environment, the end of a lot that is good for the people.

  • doc4cd1

    First, at the expense of sounding like a Democrat, anyone that does not understand the “Multiplier Effect” of Government stimulus on the economy should go back to High School.
    Second, in order to change the course of something BIG you have to apply a LOT OF FORCE to that body. The first stimulus was NOT BIG ENOUGH to get the economy going. Why? Because the hole created by Supply Side Economics was SSSSSOOOOO deep that $700 Billion was needed just to stop the drop into that hole.
    Third, the ranting and raving by Right Wing Radical REACTIONARIES (PLEASE stop calling these wingnuts Conservatives….not fair to true conservatives) about drowning Government is a ploy to continue to avoid raising taxes on the richest of us so as to disperse the pain to the rich from tax give aways they lived off of since 1980s
    Fourth, don’t believe that government workers are NOT productive. Just because some idiot REACTIONARY screams loudly about government workers does NOT mean they do not give us good service. I have seen government workers in many situations where they are dealing with irate citizens with calmness and humanism.
    Fifth, without NEW IDEAS and NEW DIRECTIONS, the jobs we have lost will never come back. Read between the lines, we already have people working for minimum wages and no benefits that have been duped into hating Union workers for having benefits. They should be outraged that they do not have the same benefits. Don’t you see, eventually, the richest hope, the American people will lower thier expectations and no longer strive but accept. then we will become a nation of poorly paid, indentured servants with no hope. YES IT CAN HAPPEN HERE!!!

  • DollarsnSense

    Inflation … Recession … oppression … Depression!!!

    The sun will come out tomorrow … Happy days are here again …

  • Big Easy

    A good jobs report would’ve looked like the republicans not voting against everything president Obama put forth…which only happened for the first time in history. I don’t agree with everything anybody says but I’m willing to work with my enemies to make things better. The republicans made it clear from the beginning when they said they’ll do everything within their power to make sure he’s a one term president. That’s racism at it’s best.

  • rustacus21

    …would show vigorous activity in multiple sectors of the economy, number ONE!!! It’s hard to invigorate an economy w/lopsided factors weighted upon single (war/finance/consumer debt) minded, narrow focuses. These are, make no mistake about it – CONSERVATIVE configurations, of how to run (into the ground, no less!) an economy & are the curse of this current administration, in trying, w/equally intense futility, to make an economic success of itself. It’s impossible, no matter which way it’s pushed, pulled or stretched. The “war” economy of the 1980’s, revolved around the star wars program, the cold war & arms sales to BOTH Iran & Iraq. It only lasted so long, then crashed. The same thing with the Supreme Court experiment in electoral interventions, in the form of the last administration, posting exactly the same results as the Reagan/Bush terms. President Clinton’s strategy (as laid out prior, in “Putting People 1st”, the administrations pre-administration manifesto on “reviving” a NATION – not just an economy), proposed & actually employed a diversity of sectors, multiplying success possibilities. Gambling, if U will, on the ingenuity & innovation of entreprenuers, domestically & in the global market of business & socio-political community. This is complex, to be sure, but this is also why a Prez. packs an administration w/young, bright, ambitious visionaries, along w/experienced & wise deep-thinkers, instead of crusty, old, neolithic-minded, backward thinking [email protected], who only dream in dollar bills & visions of aristocracy. Until this current administration separates itself from the latter, THEN, going on a crash-course to emulate the former, it will continue to produce failed results that ONLY reflect Conservative policy efforts in total, abject futility & failure…

  • damontg

    You wrote: “The worst thing that can happen to this country is to have a Republican president. That would be the end of Social Security, the end of Medicare and Medicaid, the end of student loans, the end of the environment, the end of a lot that is good for the people.”

    We have had Republican Presidents in the past and we still have Medicare, Medicaid, and Student Loans. Don’t believe the “hype.” The Republicans are not going to eliminate any of these. Put down your kool-aid and think for yourself.

  • Randy

    The current deterioration of America began when we started electing so called successful businessman into office.The so called career politicians have Americas best interest at heart. Whereas the businessmen only have their and a few cronies best interest at heart. So the run the country like their company’s. They steal everything not nailed down and leave the shareholders, or tax payeers, holding the bag.

  • toosmarttovoteGOP

    Just imagine how many more jobs there would be if congressional Republican did theirs.

  • imquiltercb

    Yes, their have been good Republican presidents, but the Party has lost its way. Point out one positive thing they have done to help the current unemployment situation or to fix our financial problems. I don’t think you can find a thing, even though Mr. Boehner said, after the 2010 elections, that JOBS were Priority Number 1. We have been facing the worst crisis both in this country and the world since the Great Depression. I haven’t seen the Republicans once step up to the President and say, “What can we do to help?”. Their idea of bi-partisanship is to have Congress accept their views only. This stubborness, combined with their unwillingness to use taxes as a way to raise revenue, is unconsionable in our curent situation. By the same token, the Democrats on the far left have to answer the same charges of inflexibility and unwillingness to support THEIR President in this time of crisis. They are apparently more worried that their views and idealism reign without regard to the reality on the ground. They too must wake up. Remember Franklin’s words during the Revolution, “We must hang together or surely we will all hang separately.”

    A lot of people say they do not want to vote for Obama again because he did not fulfill campaign promises. There seems to be no acknowledgement that those promises were made BEFORE the finanacial crash when everything changed. Just as in the Great Depression, there are those few who want to roll up their sleeves and tackle the problem before them, and there are those others, politicians who are more worried about perogitives and power grabs rather than the welfare of the country. Every politician should realize that this is an extrordinary situation and calls for uniting to help save our country and its principls.

    To keep everyone on track it is up to every citizen to get involved. Do vote but do not vote for someone because he supports one of your pet beliefs. What is their whole platform? If you are disgruntled, get informed and get involved. Yes, the rich can “Buy” a lot of politicians, but if we the people unite behind change, our voices will be heard. It’s why we aren’t a British colony today!

  • Supercombo1975

    Republicans and TEA partiers do not love this country. If they do why do they keeping killing “The Jobs Bill?” They have proved to us they can not govern,they do not love us(The American people). If the GOP can not get any thing done in one arm of government,how then do they want us to give them The White House, and the Senate? Take a look at their current Presidential nominees who tell us they will repeal “Obamacare” but can not tell us what they will replace it with. Where are the jobs they promised us last year? Hell NO! like then House Minority Leader John Boehner said on The House Floor, to all and everything will not give them political victory. Help the president create jobs for us and our families then we know you are serious about controlling all three arms of government. Killing us to give more to Corporate America, billionaires, and millionaires, will not do you any good.
    Mr. Speaker, Mr. House Majority Leader, Where are the jobs? We are patiently awaiting your answer, and your action. Remember this statement of Paul Otellini “You never save your way out of recession. You invest your way.” Or do you all need to go back to school? So invest in America today for a brighter tomorrow. If you have ears to hear, heed this all-true quotation.