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Saturday, December 10, 2016

100 Days To Go

 Polls of Polls Change Who’s Up
Real Clear Politics
Average
Obama
+.5
Obama +1.6%
Talking Points Memo PollTracker No change Romney +.6%
HuffingtonPost
Pollster
No change Romney +.1%
New York Times
FiveThirtyEight
Romney
+.1
Obama +2.1
Memo 
Average
 Obama +.1 Obama +.8

Romney is stuck at 45

Nate Cohn at The New Republic makes an interesting point: Mitt Romney, no matter how many gaffes he blurts or constituencies he alienates, doesn’t seem to be falling bellow 45% in the polls. Is this a credit to Romney? More likely it’s an artifact of polarization. Forty-five percent of likely voters is roughly the size the of the Republican base, and they would vote for scabies over President Obama. That Mitt hasn’t been able to extend his share of likely voters beyond this 44-46% ranges indicates that he’s not winning over many swing voters.

For the far right, Israel is fundamental

It’s doubtful that Mitt’s trip abroad will attract the support of those voters. Forget his bumbling jaunt through London. On Sunday, on of his advisors made a case for unilateral war simply based on Iran’s capability to build nuclear weapons. This was a huge leap and Romney’s staff soon had to walk it back.

Romney then made a speech from Israel that highlighted his commitment to Israel. Was this designed to sway Jewish voters in the US, who support President Obama by a margin of more than two-to-one? No, it was all about appeasing Romney’s fundamentalist base and billionaire Sheldon Adelson, who was in the audience for Romney’s speech. Adelson joked that he was in Israel to get a shawarma sandwich. But he was likely drooling over Romney’s bellicose words for Tehran.

Married to his base

The President didn’t do any campaigning this weekend but Vice President Biden and his wife Jill attended the American Federation of Teachers convention in Detroit. Teachers are key Democratic supporters, and Biden just happens to be married to one.

Ohio is leaning Obama

The best news of the weekend for the President came from Nate Silver of the New York Times. Silver sees trouble for Romney in Ohio, where Obama leads by three points, better than his 2.4% lead in the rest of the country. Romney would have a very difficult time winning the electoral college without picking up the Buckeye State. No Republican has ever done so.

Verdict: With Romney appealing to the far right abroad and Ohio trending Democratic, the President starts the week with a smile.

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