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Sunday, December 4, 2016

Who’s Up Today? Romney and Obama Break Even.

Was This Mitt’s Day?

Polls of Polls Change Who’s Up
Real Clear Politics
Average
Romney
+.3
Obama
+2.7%
Talking Points Memo PollTracker Romney
+2.4
Obama
+.6%
HuffingtonPost
Pollster
Romney
+.5
Tie
New York Times
FiveThirtyEight
Romney
+.2
Obama
+2.2
Memo 
Average
 Romney
+.8 
Obama
+.1.2

Yesterday, I assumed that today would be Mitt Romney’s day. All the indications were the jobs number would disappoint and Mitt would seize the opportunity to bash the President. But the jobs number blasted past expectations while the unemployment ticked up in the hundredths’ place. Romney gave the speech he’d had written for disappointing numbers and called the report “another hammer blow to the struggling middle class families of America.” It was hard to make this case as stocks soared, buoyed by the report and news that the European Central Bank may take steps to lower short-term borrowing costs in Spain and Italy.

The report was a non-event, says Nate Silver of the New York Times, which is good news for the President.

Politically, the status quo appears to favor President Obama. If the election were held today, he would have a 77 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, according to our forecast model’s “now-cast,” although the victory would almost certainly be by a slim margin — possibly even a victory in the Electoral College that is not reflected in the national popular vote.

It certainly could have been much worse for the President.

Mitt’s still talking tax returns

Yesterday, Romney told Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid to “put up or shut up” regarding his claims that Romney hadn’t paid taxes in a decade. It was a strange turn of phrase as only Romney has the evidence to shut up Reid. Romney also declared his intention to only release two years of taxes before the election. Is this a tenable position for Romney? Republican rep. Walter Jones doesn’t think it’s going away.

Mitt loses the Chick-fil-A vote?

Today Romney said that the Chick-fil-A controversy was “not a part of my campaign.” This alienated some social conservatives who saw the show of support for the restaurant as a positive sign for the right in the upcoming election.

 

Attacks on Mitt’s Tax Plan Substantiated

The Obama campaign’s assertion that Romney’s plan would raise taxes on 95% of Americans was validated by The Washington Post’s Fact Checker Glenn Kessler. This hasn’t stopped the Romney campaign from its strategy of “Deny, Distract, Dissemble,” says The New Republic’s Jonathan Cohn.

Verdict: There’s no denying that it has been a good week for the president. But any day when we’re talking about the economy and the unemployment rate is over 8%, it’s probably good for Romney. But the case that Mitt is the savior the economy needs is getting hard to make.

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