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Friday, December 9, 2016

When Will Mitt’s Day Come?

Polls of Polls Change Who’s Up
Real Clear Politics
Average
Obama
+1%
Obama
+3%
Talking Points Memo PollTracker Obama
+1.9
Obama
+1.8%
HuffingtonPost
Pollster
Obama
+.7
Obama
+.5
New York Times
FiveThirtyEight
No change Obama
+2.4
Memo 
Average
 Obama
+.2
Obama
+.1.2

I’ve been reminded by my colleagues at The National Memo that the President can’t win every day. This is definitely true. But has there ever been a rougher patch of days for Mitt Romney than the period that began when he arrived in London? Today certainly isn’t Romney’s day, as a new Pew national poll shows the President leading by 10% (PDF). And that poll was taken before Mitt ended up with nasty headlines from just about every day of his foreign policy tour.

But tomorrow certainly could be Romney’s day. The July jobs report comes out on Friday. The consensus expectation is that between 80-100,000 jobs will be created. Regardless of the numbers, expect the Romney camp to describe them as “a punch in the gut.” If the numbers don’t get close to that 100,000 mark, expect the press to pile on the criticism as well. Bad news for the economy could be much needed good news for Mr. Romney.

No one is going to save the economy

Some on the right are predicting that the lack of action by the European Central Bank followed by the Federal Reserve’s punt,  has sealed the President’s fate in November. The economy is sluggish and no one in any government or any central bank seems willing to do anything about it.

The Hibbs model predicts a Romney win

A much referenced model developed by political forecaster Douglas Hibbs is the dissenting view of the well-know existing models. Unlike Intrade and Nate Sliver’s FiveThirtyEight model, Hibbs suggests that Romney will win in November. The prediction is largely based on the state of the economy. Keep in mind that based on this model, Dewey would have crushed Truman and Gore would have trounced Bush.

The Obama campaign hits Romney’s middle class tax plan hard

A day after the President made a speech denouncing Mitt Romney’s tax plan that would, according to a non-partisan study, raise taxes on 95 percent of Americans, the campaign unveiled a calculator that will preview your taxes under both the Romney and Obama plans. Along with that came a new add that makes prominent use of Mitt’s 14 percent tax rate, which is less than some middle class families pay.

How big a deal is this new tax angle for the President? New York Magazine‘s relatively modest Jonathan Chait says that it appears Romney has blundered his way into “a bona fide political disaster with his tax plan.”

Meet Mitt Romney’s Twitter Nemesis

The last thing you want is “The Funniest Person on Twitter” as your nemesis. But that’s what Mitt Romney has in the form of comic Rob Delaney. The hilarious Delaney is a big fan of the Affordable Care Act and an expert in dominating @MittRomney’s mentions.

 The Verdict: The President’s numbers and assault on Romney’s tax plan give him the edge for one more day.

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