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Tuesday, October 25, 2016

When Will Mitt’s Day Come?

Polls of Polls Change Who’s Up
Real Clear Politics
Talking Points Memo PollTracker Obama
New York Times
No change Obama

I’ve been reminded by my colleagues at The National Memo that the President can’t win every day. This is definitely true. But has there ever been a rougher patch of days for Mitt Romney than the period that began when he arrived in London? Today certainly isn’t Romney’s day, as a new Pew national poll shows the President leading by 10% (PDF). And that poll was taken before Mitt ended up with nasty headlines from just about every day of his foreign policy tour.

But tomorrow certainly could be Romney’s day. The July jobs report comes out on Friday. The consensus expectation is that between 80-100,000 jobs will be created. Regardless of the numbers, expect the Romney camp to describe them as “a punch in the gut.” If the numbers don’t get close to that 100,000 mark, expect the press to pile on the criticism as well. Bad news for the economy could be much needed good news for Mr. Romney.

No one is going to save the economy

Some on the right are predicting that the lack of action by the European Central Bank followed by the Federal Reserve’s punt,  has sealed the President’s fate in November. The economy is sluggish and no one in any government or any central bank seems willing to do anything about it.

The Hibbs model predicts a Romney win

A much referenced model developed by political forecaster Douglas Hibbs is the dissenting view of the well-know existing models. Unlike Intrade and Nate Sliver’s FiveThirtyEight model, Hibbs suggests that Romney will win in November. The prediction is largely based on the state of the economy. Keep in mind that based on this model, Dewey would have crushed Truman and Gore would have trounced Bush.

The Obama campaign hits Romney’s middle class tax plan hard

A day after the President made a speech denouncing Mitt Romney’s tax plan that would, according to a non-partisan study, raise taxes on 95 percent of Americans, the campaign unveiled a calculator that will preview your taxes under both the Romney and Obama plans. Along with that came a new add that makes prominent use of Mitt’s 14 percent tax rate, which is less than some middle class families pay.

How big a deal is this new tax angle for the President? New York Magazine‘s relatively modest Jonathan Chait says that it appears Romney has blundered his way into “a bona fide political disaster with his tax plan.”

Meet Mitt Romney’s Twitter Nemesis

The last thing you want is “The Funniest Person on Twitter” as your nemesis. But that’s what Mitt Romney has in the form of comic Rob Delaney. The hilarious Delaney is a big fan of the Affordable Care Act and an expert in dominating @MittRomney’s mentions.

 The Verdict: The President’s numbers and assault on Romney’s tax plan give him the edge for one more day.

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  • The only question at this point is the magnitude of President Obama’s coat tails. Will his victory in November be so overwhelming that the Dems will regain control of the House and increase their majority in the Senate? Romney’s tax plan, Ryan’s plan to privatize SS and dismantle MEDICARE, Romney’s refusal to make his tax returns public, his overseas tax shelters, and the nomination of radical Tea Party candidates in several Red states may make this one of the most dramatic political defeats in history.

    • ChristoD

      Dominick,I hope you are right across the board but I would hold off on the prediction for a while. Too many of our American family, friends and neighbors still have decided to ignore the fact that the Republicans in congress have not only NOT done anything to create jobs but have worked to assure that the President can’t either. Too many Americans cannot see why the President hasn’t been able to charm his way into convincing those who don’t want to be (Republicans in Congress) that infrastructure improvement jobs are for private sector companies and not government jobs, etc. etc. etc. It is so blatantly obvious what is happening that it is astonishing that there are so many gullible people who do not. I don’t want to raise this issue but I am starting to believe it may be the dreaded ‘rascist’ issue.

      • I agree, and it is certainly premature to start celebrations, but judging by the latest polls most Americans were awaken by the only reality that matters on election day: the GOP proposals would affect our pocketbooks and our livelihoods, and we are not going to take it. The GOP proposals, which are nothing less than class warfare, are being waged on the assumption that the electorate is too dumb to determine what is best for them. Teh GOP over reached and they are going to pay for it.

    • The Democrats will need the President and only Congress to keep their stupid behaviour in check

  • If republicans win the Senate as some are predicting and Romney takes the White House, we can reasonably expect the US to take another hit to the national credit rating and one giant step closer to third world status.

    • That is the nuttiest thing I have ever heard come out of a persons mouth ? Where are we going now? No Jobs but the ones that are being created over seas and Mexico with our tax dollars That is if you are one of the few working people. Being on vacation all the time or playing Golf and not paying attention to our country or trying to change things like he said he would. I voted for him I wanted a change in the government. But not the change we got. America is being sold out Not only Obama but all of his Administration is selling America out… And food stamps isn’t what people need if this keeps up the next thing is air plains and Helicopters dropping food like it is in a 3rd world country. We gave Obama a shot he screwed up he didn’t take control and do what was needed. I don’t like Romney either But at least we will have a better chance to get the economy going and putting people back to work. And if he goes after the banks like he said he was and make them fallow the guide lines on intrust OK Now if he says put air in your tires and you get better gas mileage I will vote for Ron Paul if he is on the Ballot or not.

      • rmarqua2921

        Since you seem to be an authority on “what was needed” maybe you could tell the rest of us what is needed? The Republicans have controlled the House for the past two years, what have they done to create jobs? Everything Obama has tried has been blocked by the House! We were told by Bush and the Republicans that all we needed to do was to give the rich and corporations tax breaks and they got rid of many regulations so the rich and corporations would create jobs? Where the hell are they? The tax breaks are still in force? Where are the jobs! Instead asking Obama where the jobs are we are asking the Republicans and George Bush where are the jobs you promised? Tell me if you have the balls to do it! What is the difference between the economic policies of Romney and those we suffered through with George Bush? What evidence do you have that Romney and Republicans will go after the banks and make them follow the guide lines? that has been the problem the republicans in the House refuse to implement the regulation put in place for the banks to follow!

        • rockinthebayinFlorida

          You hit the nail on the head! The Tea Party/GOP has managed to stone wall everything Obama has tried to do…there has been a jobs bill in their hands for 10 months, but no action, however, we now have GOP-WOT (Grand Old Party-Wasting Our Time (from MSNBC))…screwing around with repealing the HC bill-33 times! It gets so fustrating when I read some of these people’s comments…it is obvious they don’t have a clue how government works. Romney can promise to create jobs, repaeal the HC bill, etc. until the cows come home, BUT he can’t just DO it, as he says, on day 1! IT AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN! The house has only a 12% approval rating at this stage of the game…they better start cleaning out their offices for the fall elections! I have a feeling people are sick of the gridlock going on. If, God forbid, the GOP DOES get the whole thing again as they did for 6 years under Bush, we may as well place our heads between our knees, and kiss our asses goodbye!

  • Can’t understand why the middle class who will be so hurt by Romney’s election would support him. Almost like they see themselves as being invited to the GOP party when, even now, they aren’t even allowed in the door. Personally I will be laughing at all of them when the newly unemployed workers get the boot as companies will return to outsourcing –only this time cleaning up all the mistakes of the earlier years. Then watch as those folks, who thought the GOP was working for them, begin to follow the Madoff investors whine about how “Romney lied to us”. It won’t matter then because once they slip into poverty or working poor, they’ll never recover. And I for one, while it may not be polite, will be the first one to scream “I TOLD YOU SO”, every chance I get. Nor will I be offering a “helping hand” to all those formerly employed GOP supporters who are less fortunate. You caused your own demise so live with it. If you sink or drown, oh well.

    • AZ- exactly….I will NEVER understand how the poor and middle class continue to vote against their own interests….this election has me to the point that I do not even want to be around my Repub friends….I have no tolerance for their ignorance on the issue of who is better suited to run this country….

      • I will never understand it either ! ! !

    • Trouble with your “I TOLD YOU SO” It will hurt a lot of Democrats too. Let up pray for the best outcome, OBAMA ! ! !

  • Some of the New Taxes to the middle class from Obama; 1. An end to flexible spending accounts. 2. Itemized medical deduction cut off increases from 7.5% to 10% of income. 3. New Medical devise tax 2.3% on anything more than $100.00 – so a CPAP machine, or wheelchair will now be taxed by the federal government. 4. And of course the individual mandate is a tax on anyone who does not buy insurance.


    • rmarqua2921

      Think how much more they will pay to compensate for the tax cuts to Romney and his buddies! It just makes common sense that the less the rich pay the more the burden falls on the 99%! the thing that is so surprising to me is how many of the 90% want to give more tax breaks to the rich! Romney doesn’t want to show his tax returns because they will clearly show how little taxes he pays compared to the middle class in the USA! You are so naive! I believe all the rich get social security and medicare also!