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Saturday, December 10, 2016

 

The Nation Mourns, Again

Poll Call Change Who’s Up
Real Clear Politics
Average
Obama
+.3
Obama
+3.0%
Talking Points Memo PollTracker No change Romney
+.6%
HuffingtonPost
Pollster
No change Tie
New York Times
FiveThirtyEight
Obama
+.4
Obama
+2.6
Memo 
Average
 Obama
+.1 
Obama
+.1.3

Gun control seems destined to become an issue in this campaign, as badly as both candidates would prefer it doesn’t. The terrible tragedy at the Sikh Temple in Wisconsin is being treated as domestic terrorism, which may permit both President Obama, who said he would pursue no new gun control legislation after the Aurora tragedy, and Mitt Romney, who actually signed an assault weapon ban as governor of Massachusetts, to avoid the question.

As we mourn the victims of this terrible tragedy, I offer a cynical note: In a time of tragedy, the nation tends to rally around the president. Doubly so during acts of domestic terrorism. So expect some noise in the polls over the next few days, though there wasn’t much after Aurora.

Landslide?

In an incredible moment of foresight or hubris, Newsweek’s Michael Tomasky pointed out what anyone who takes a regular look at the polls can see: This election could easily turn into a landslide for the President. Romney is losing in every battleground state and seems to become less likable as voters get to know him. Yet the race begins anew after the conventions. Romney still has opportunities in choosing a running mate choice and debating the president to transform his image among voters. An amazing Romney campaign free of serious gaffes from now until November — or some devastating economic news — could reshape the race. But for now, the numbers must be daunting for the Romney camp, still mired in a pissing contest with the Senate Majority Leader.

Obama spends on infrastructure, for his campaign

The Obama campaign has been saying it will be outspent by November due to unlimited and anonymous donations. Their strategy has been to use an early cash-on-hand balance to improve their technology and increase voter registration. The result? They’re burning through cash at an unprecedented rate for an incumbent president, explaining that “grassroots movements do not come cheap.” Romney can rely on outside groups like Americans For Prosperity to provide grassroots organizing for him, to go up against the people power of labor unions and the Obama campaign.

Mitt Romney says he sleeps well, for now

Mitt Romney says that if he believed everything the media said about him, it would keep him up at night. But he reports that he sleeps quite well. Some argue that Mitt sleeps so well because he abstains from caffeine. If anything keeps Mitt up at night, it would be the idea that the decent employment  numbers from July will only get better. The fact that the U.S. has avoided a double-dip recession despite the slowdown in China, the Eurozone’s troubles and European austerity speaks to a resilience in the economy that  few expected. Will things keep getting better? Consider these “Charts That Should Terrify Mitt Romney.”

Verdict: The President is looking presidential and facing an electoral environment that favors his reelection. But Romney is still sleeping well, so he has that going for him.

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Copyright 2012 The National Memo