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Friday, December 2, 2016

Today’s ruling: Tie

 Polls of Polls Change Who’s Up
Real Clear Politics
Average
Romey +.1 Obama +1.1%
Talking Points Memo PollTracker Romney +2.7% Romney +.6%
HuffingtonPost
Pollster
Romney +.1% Romney +.1%
New York Times
FiveThirtyEight
Obama +.1% Obama +2.2
Memo 
Average
Obama +.7


It’s hard to believe in the wake of #RomneyShambles, but Jennifer Rubin of the Washington Post, Mitt’s biggest media fan, still thinks Romney’s foreign policy tour is making the Obama campaign nervous. Maybe that’s nervous laughter.

Brian Beutler of Talking Points Memo points out that the Democrats’ tax victory on Wednesday is a much bigger deal than Romney’s bumbling in the UK.

The gross domestic product numbers showed the economy slowing. But the report met expectations and didn’t hurt the stock market, which is testing 13,000 for the first time in months. European economic problems continue to play a huge role in the US economy — and US investors appreciate the steps being taken to insure the Euro exists past this summer. Yet some are speculating that a major downturn is on its way. The mix of good and bad economic news may be the perfect formula for keeping the US Federal Reserve from providing the only hope for stimulus before the election.

The Obama campaign is preparing for a potential downturn by arguing that Mitt Romney’s plan will do nothing to improve the economy. In fact, his proposals may make it worse. They also released a positive ad, to air during the Olympics opening ceremony in London,  that harkens back to 2008 and emphasizes the middle class’ role in economic growth.

Mitt has managed not to offend the British terribly in his second day on their soil. He did give an interview that will have heads shaking all over the rest of the world, however, suggesting that if Bush’s agenda in the Middle East had been continued, the Arab Spring would have not been necessary. The implication was that the region’s recent free elections are not the kind of democracy Bush or Romney would prefer. No doubt Mitt thinks that will improve our image in the Mideast.

Mitt isn’t scoring any points on foreign policy. Most of his polling boosts come from a five-point lead from Rasmussen Reports, a conservative pollster. But his best hope is a bad economy, and the news he got today keeps his hopes alive.

You know the cliché: The only poll that counts is on Election Day. But until then, what we have are opinion polls and the daily drama of the campaign. In “Who’s Up Today?” we’ll chronicle the big wins and bigger fails as they occur — and like it or not, we’ll name a winner of the day based on everything we can gather by sticking a finger in the air. 

*Note on the polls. We’re following polls of polls or models that sum up several polls along with other factors.

What campaign news should we be following today?

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