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Nominating Trump Would Be An Electoral ‘Bloodbath’: ‘Weekly Standard’

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Nominating Trump Would Be An Electoral ‘Bloodbath’: ‘Weekly Standard’

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1928 electoral map

We’ve written a lot recently about Donald Trump’s poor prospects in the general election, should he become the Republican nominee: he motivates Muslims and Latinos to register to vote (against him), he’s repulsive to Mormons and others who value religious liberty, and the international community would consider his success a complete disaster — something we’ll surely hear more about as this cycle rolls on.

On top of all that, Trump’s electoral strategy — essentially, it’s just “bring out angry, disengaged conservatives to the polls” — forgets the fact that the vast majority of voters are some combination of young people, minorities, and women, most of whom find him entirely unelectable.

It’s not just us lefties ranting about how bad Donald is for our politics, though. After all, the #NeverTrump movement started with conservatives on Twitter who swore they would never support Trump as their party’s standard-bearer, and has since become a slogan for anti-Trump activists of all stripes.

Take conservative outlet The Weekly Standard, whose Trump coverage is particularly bleak. In an episode of their wonderful near-daily podcast on Monday, staff writer and number cruncher Jay Cost laid out his forecast for Trump’s general election chances, and they’re not pretty. I’ll let Cost explain, in one of the best electoral math rants I’ve heard in a while:

Let me state flatly and unequivocally that if Donald Trump is the nominee, Hillary Clinton’s floor in the electoral college is 400 votes. That’s the floor, number one. Number two, kiss the Senate goodbye. I mean, it’s not even going to be a close call. It will be a bloodbath. Number three, and this is a little more controversial at this point, but I would give the Republicans no better than 40 percent odds hold the House of Representatives.

This guy is an abject disaster for the Republican Party in November, there is no other way to put it. And the notion that he’s going to bring in some tranche of voters is just a complete fiction, for two reasons: number one, there aren’t enough of them, okay?

I live in Western Pennsylvania. I live right near places that, up until very recently, were voting Democratic. And yeah, can Trump bring some new voters in from Beaver County? Yeah, maybe he can. But I’m telling you what, I live in Butler County, which has been voting Republican since 1856, and he’s going to get killed in Butler County. He is going to get killed in the Cranberry Township suburbs in Butler County. Because people are going to look at him and they are going to think, “No Way.”  You watch, suburban women in Cranberry Township are going to bolt [from] him in droves. And the same thing’s going to happen… replicate that times 100 in the Philadelphia suburbs. It’s going to be an absolute slaughter.

And I think that he can hold the line, maybe, in the South. I see him winning Mississippi and Alabama, and maybe Louisiana. I think he loses Georgia, I think he loses North Carolina. But I think… that’s only one area where the Republican Party is strong. You go to the Great Plains, right… So the Great Plains starts with Texas and then goes up to the Canadian border, and then it goes west up though Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah. He is going to punk out all through that region. These people want nothing to do with this guy. Maybe they’ll vote for him over Hillary Clinton, because they find Hillary Clinton so objectionable, but he is not going to win those states by anything approaching a solid margin.

If you want a view of what Trump looks like on election day, I think the best map you can look at is probably the 1928 map between Al Smith and Herbert Hoover. And Herbert Hoover massacred Al Smith. It is going to be an absolute, total bloodbath for Republicans. It will give the Democrats not only control of the White House and the Senate, but very possibly the House of Representatives.

 

That 1928 electoral map is about as one-sided as Trump’s electoral predictions get. I can’t say I’d look forward to such a lopsided win, mainly because I don’t want to think about the type of politician who will be able to capitalize on disappointed Trump voters (just as Trump spoke to disaffected Tea Partiers). Still if it means dealing a serious blow to the darkest corners of Trump’s twisted rhetoric, I’m all for it:

1928 electoral map

Photo: Wikimedia Commons.

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37 Comments

  1. Otto T. Goat March 24, 2016

    Neocohen warmongers hate Trump.

    Reply
    1. Mr Corrections March 24, 2016

      Everyone hates Trump.

      1. Independent1 March 25, 2016

        You’re very close with that comment – see my post to dtgraham above about a recent poll which shows that only 29% view Trump positively while 68% view him negatively.

        Here’s the link to an article on the poll:

        http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-clinton-would-crush-trump-in-general-election/ar-BBqQrt5?ocid=spartanntp

    2. Independent1 March 25, 2016

      Recent poll of likely voters says 29% positive with 68% negative for Trump.

      1. @HawaiianTater March 25, 2016

        On the Republican side, Trump scores a net negative of -33, with a
        favorable rating of 24% compared to 57% of voters who view him
        unfavorably. On the Democratic side, Clinton fares only slightly better
        with a net negative of -21, registering a 31% favorable rating and a 52%
        unfavorable rating, according to the poll.

        http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/22/politics/2016-election-poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/

        1. dtgraham March 25, 2016

          Bernie, on the other hand, has a very high net positive.

          1. Independent1 March 25, 2016

            Yes, because the right-wing, including the right-wing biased media, has not yet gone on a 24/7 publication of scandals against Bernie like they’ve been doing for 20 years against Hillary. Like I told Tater, you better do a little research into some skeletons that Bernie has in his closet before you become too confident that the right-wing can’t work to corrupt him too.

        2. Independent1 March 25, 2016

          And we’re all aware that the negatives against Clinton are all based on the right-wing 24/7 publication of fabricated scandals which they’ve been pushing to get her out of the race; while doing nothing yet to tear down Bernie – which will definitely happen should he get the nomination. You better take a better look at some of the skeletons that Bernie has in his closet which the right-wing has not yet exploited (or the right-wing media has not yet exploited like they’ve been exploiting constantly against Hillary.)

          1. @HawaiianTater March 25, 2016

            I can assure you that none of my negative views of Hillary come from right wing propaganda. My problems with her are because she’s TOO MUCH like a Republican. Being liberal on social issues isn’t good enough. I’m not going to support someone who is a war hawk and a friend to Wall Street. I don’t care about the fabricated scandals. I care about her role in what happened in Libya and Honduras. I care about her wanting more foreign policy disaster in Syria. I care that she hasn’t learned her lesson from Iraq. I care about her outrageous AIPAC speech. I care that she will pass the TPP. I care that she will continue to pour untold billions into the MIC while our country falls apart. I care that she won’t reinstate Glass-Steagall. I care that she won’t break up the big banks. I care that she won’t stop the private prison industry. I care that she will continue to allow fracking. Most importantly, I care that she will do nothing to get money out of politics. The list goes on and on. As long as the billionaires own our government, nothing will ever get fixed. If we can’t accomplish that first step, there is no second step.

            And you can just stop with the skeletons in the closet nonsense. There are not enough skeletons in closets in the entire world to propel Trump into a victory over Bernie. That might rile up the RWNJs but it’s not going to change the demographics of the election. Blacks and Latinos and single women (basically, every demo outside of the angry white voters) aren’t going to all of a sudden switch their votes to Trump because of right wing propaganda. You sound silly for even suggesting it.

          2. The lucky one March 25, 2016

            Well said, I agree with it all. There is probably only one politician in the whole country that would be worse than HRC or Trump. Hint: He bears a striking resemblance to Joe McCarthy (or a turd depending on viewing angle).

          3. @HawaiianTater March 25, 2016

            He reminds me of Dick Dastardly.

          4. Zengo March 25, 2016

            Exactly! He’s tying people to the railroad tracks as we speak!

          5. dtgraham March 25, 2016

            Wow. I stand in awe. Well said Tater. Very well said.

          6. @HawaiianTater March 25, 2016

            Thanks. I try.

            I’ve heard a lot of Hillary supporters try to brush off criticisms of her as right wing propaganda, so I always try to be very clear and list off factual reasons as to why I don’t support her. They don’t want to accept the fact that there are a lot of very real reasons to criticize her that are not fabricated scandals.

        3. Independent1 March 25, 2016

          And those numbers on Hillary aren’t close to what Bloomberg came up with in a poll published just yesterday, they came up with a 44 percent positive and a 53% negative: a -9 points for her.

          1. @HawaiianTater March 25, 2016

            Okay, and? lol

            -9 is still not a good thing. It’s still more negative views than positive ones.

      2. Otto T. Goat March 25, 2016

        Why do you want more wars?

        1. Independent1 March 25, 2016

          What kind of a comment is that? I’m certainly not voting for Trump who wants to carpet bomb ISIS, even the noncombatants; and go over and steal Iraq’s oil by force.

          1. Otto T. Goat March 25, 2016

            You should pull your head out of Hillary’s ass.

          2. Independent1 March 25, 2016

            Strange comment from someone who has their head up their butt so far that they can’t even post one comment that isn’t totally nonsensical!!! And virtually every nonright-wing poster on the NM will attest to that!!

          3. iamproteus March 27, 2016

            Otto, why can’t you ever say say anything that could be mistaken for something intelligent?

    3. iamproteus March 27, 2016

      C’mon, Otto. You’re just making shlt up now. What the hell is a “neocohen”?

  2. dtgraham March 24, 2016

    I have no doubt whatsoever that the Democrats will win the WH in November if Trump is the nominee. I would easily predict that too, but I just don’t see so many of those traditional red states voting for Hillary Clinton (probable) no matter who the Republican nominee is.

    With the way the Congressional districts are set up, it would be awfully tough for the Dems to retake the House though. The Senate yes, but Congress?

    Reply
    1. Independent1 March 24, 2016

      You might be interested in this:

      Poll: Clinton would crush Trump in general election

      Hillary Clinton would crush Donald Trump in a hypothetical general election match-up, a new national survey found. According to a Bloomberg Politics poll released Wednesday, Clinton leads Trump 54 percent to 36 percent in a contest between the two front-runners.

      Also troubling for Trump, only 29 percent of likely general election voters nationally have a favorable view of him, compared to 68 percent who view him negatively. Trump’s favorability rating is at an all-time low in the survey, while his negative rating has gone up 13 points since November and has hit a new high.

      The Republican Party s favorability rating is at an all-time low in the survey, which has been conducted since 2009. Only 33 percent view the GOP favorably, against 60 percent who have a negative view of the party. Fifty-one percent of likely general election voters have a positive view of the Democratic Party, against 43 percent negative.
      http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-clinton-would-crush-trump-in-general-election/ar-BBqQrt5?ocid=spartanntp

      1. dtgraham March 25, 2016

        She’s going to crush him for sure. Bernie would too. Even a little more so, if you believe the head-to-head inter-party match up polls.

        I just think that a lot of the raw percentages would come from the states that the Dems would win anyway, and many of the toss-ups.

        On E-day, they may poll a little closer in the red states and I don’t doubt that. I still don’t think though that they’ll win all of those red states that this article has them winning, regardless of the Republican nominee. I may be wrong about that, but we’ll see.

    2. @HawaiianTater March 25, 2016

      If nominated, Hillary would most likely win the WH. That’s a demographics and electoral college issue. She wouldn’t have the kind of coattails needed to retake Congress though. As much as everyone hates Trump, Hillary would have the 2nd highest unfavorable ratings of any nominee ever, behind only Trump.

      Nominate Bernie… the Senate is a lock and yes, even the heavily gerrymandered House would be in play. There might be a lot of hate towards Trump in conservative circles but they have hated Hillary for a quarter of a century. They hate her even more than they hate Obama. Her running would turn out the conservative base to vote against her, even if Trump is the nominee.

      They don’t share the same kind of hatred for Bernie Sanders. Something you will often hear said about him in conservative circles is that even though they think his policies are nuts, they at least respect him for being honest about who he is and not being bought off by the billionaire class.

      1. dtgraham March 25, 2016

        Absolutely right. Republican voters have had a quarter of a century of conservative media training to get them to hate Hillary. They just know that they know her and they hate her, although they probably couldn’t even tell you exactly why. I would not be surprised if many of them are still not that familiar with Bernie, as hard as that is to believe.

        He doesn’t have her negative ratings and his message partially resonates with Trump voters (think trade).

        I think his winning percentages exceed Hillary’s against most of the GOP candidates for a reason.

  3. Darsan54 March 24, 2016

    I can only hope to God this is true.

    Reply
  4. I of John March 25, 2016

    Let’s hope logic and numbers follow through.

    Reply
  5. Bob Eddy March 25, 2016

    Once you’ve lost women, Muslims, Blacks, Latinos, gays and youth what are you left with? Fox voters. But now he’s even pissed off Fox “News” . Good luck with that. Now the Republican establishment has regrouped to back the smarmy Ted Cruz…Hoping he won’t win and then hoping they can control enough of a convention filled with racists, homophobes, tea baggers and fascists to pick their own loser. Oh my! What fun this is to watch!

    Reply
  6. Andrew Long March 27, 2016

    Repubs started with 17 possible candidates and ended up with these two. As Bill Maher called them, “Mussolini and McCarthy”. Either of them would be an unmitigated disaster for this country. It is time for the adults to take over the WH and both Houses and give the kids a chance to figure out who they are.

    Reply
  7. Thomas Martin March 27, 2016

    Trump has trolled the American public by successfully creating a reality tv show bought and paid for by corporate and individual donors who got suckered. People who support him have proven they would rather live in a tabloid news, reality tv, pro wrestling environment than do what is right for this county and the world. It’s sickening some citizens have bought into it through their “anger.”

    Reply
  8. Theo McKinney March 27, 2016

    GOP Trumpetteers including Schlalfy and other evangelical supporters, simply outs our home-grown version of the “gun-toting, Scripture-shrieking, civil rights-shredding disaffected poor who are so entitled they’d love to blow the whole thing up, and don’t seem to care that they are blowing themselves up with it.

    The bright side: the GOP wingnut fringe tends to self-absorbed and lazy to go anywhere near a suicide vest, or even get up off the couch for anything but the next beer.

    The trolling is a favor in the long run. The motivation behind “American” religious rightwing fringe is beginning to look exactly like the ones we hear from “religious” politicians world wide wherever they loom. ISIS. Just replace the “I” with a cross.

    Same same, deep down. Same anger. Same STUPID and self-defeating response mechanisms.

    #JustDifferentProps

    Reply
  9. Ginger March 27, 2016

    This story is such an obvious fake put out by Hillary supporter Matt Shuham. If you weren’t so concerned about Trump actually possibly beating Hillary, I don’t think you would have spent so much time writing about him. Yes, that makes sense that as a Hillary supporter you want to help the GOP to get a stronger candidate against Hillary to help them out. Right, that makes sense. If you think Trump is so easy to beat, and will also cause a landslide victory for the Democrats in the Fall, then you should be happy if the RNC nominates Trump. That will make it easier for your candidate Hillary to win. So, why would you be complaining about Trump? That’s what makes this story an obvious fake. Go Trump!

    Reply
  10. Rightazz March 27, 2016

    Endorse this Matt Hillary is a liar she can not help herself from whitewater to NAFTA lie after lie from Benghazi to email controversy lie after lie. Hillary resolve to issues with NAFTA she would appoint a committee translate that from politician to reality meaning nothing of course she has her CLAWBACK theory haw dumb is that or her standard answer I need all the facts to make a decision. Hillary is a fake she has not stood on any principles Yesterday she was against Gay marriage for NAFTA ETC>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Today she has always been for gay marriage and against free trade agreements . Hillary stands for nothing but Hillary and tells whatever lie benefits Hillary So who did you say the sociopath is

    Reply
  11. djsmps March 27, 2016

    Keep trying

    Reply

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