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Reuters/Ipsos Poll: Clinton Enjoys Solid Lead In Early Voting

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Reuters/Ipsos Poll: Clinton Enjoys Solid Lead In Early Voting

Democratic U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and U.S. Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) wave to the crowd during a campaign rally at Ernst Community Cultural Center in Annandale, Virginia, U.S., July 14, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria

NEW YORK (Reuters) – With 11 days to go before the U.S. presidential election, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 15 percentage points among early voters surveyed in the past two weeks, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.

Though data is not available for all early voting states, Clinton enjoys an edge in swing states such as Ohio and Arizona and in Republican Party strongholds such as Georgia and Texas.

An estimated 19 million Americans have voted so far in the election, according to the University of Florida’s United States Election Project, accounting for as much as 20 percent of the electorate.

Overall, Clinton remained on track to win a majority of votes in the Electoral College, the Reuters/Ipsos survey showed.

Having so many ballots locked down before the Nov. 8 election is good news for the Clinton campaign. On Friday, the Federal Bureau of Investigation announced that it is examining newly discovered emails belonging to Clinton’s close aide, Huma Abedin. Those emails were found on a computer belonging to Anthony Weiner, Abedin’s estranged husband, during an unrelated investigation into illicit messages he is alleged to have sent to a teenage girl. The Reuters/Ipsos survey was conducted before the news emerged Friday afternoon.

It remains unclear whether the FBI inquiry will upset the balance in the race. The bureau disclosed nothing about the Abedin emails, including whether any of the messages were sent by or to Clinton. Over the summer, the FBI said it was closing its investigation into Clinton’s use of a private email system while secretary of state. Until Friday, her campaign seemed to have weathered the initial FBI email probe.

Clinton has held a lead averaging four to seven percentage points in polls in recent weeks as the Trump campaign wrestled with accusations by women of groping and other sexual advances. Trump has said none of the accusations are true. He also struggled in the recent presidential debates and faced questions about his taxes.

As of Thursday, Clinton’s odds of receiving the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency remained at greater than 95 percent, according to State of the Nation polling results released Saturday. The project estimated she would win by 320 votes to 218, with 278 votes solidly for the Democrat.

Clinton’s lead among early voters is similar to the lead enjoyed by President Barack Obama over Republican Mitt Romney at this point of the 2012 race, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken at the time. Obama won the election by 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206.

But even before the latest email news, it had been a difficult week for Clinton. News coverage of Trump’s accusers had diminished, while Clinton confronted the almost daily release by WikiLeaks of emails purportedly hacked from her campaign manager’s account. This week’s leaked messages raised questions about former President Bill Clinton’s finances.

And her lead in the States of the Nation project fell slightly from last week. Though the projected Electoral College votes hardly moved, the number of states solidly for Clinton slid from 25 to 20 this week. Trump didn’t see any additional states tilt solidly to him, but he did see some gains: The swing states of Pennsylvania, Colorado, Iowa and Nevada all moved from leaning to Clinton to being too close to call.

Still, Trump’s path to a victory is narrow, and any realistic chance rests on his winning Ohio, North Carolina and Florida. As of Thursday, Ohio remained a toss-up. Florida and North Carolina were still tilting toward Clinton, according to the States of the Nation results.

Early voting data for Florida and North Carolina was not yet available this week. In Ohio, Clinton led Trump by double digits among early voters. The project’s broader polling suggests the state is deadlocked between the two candidates.

In Arizona, Clinton also was solidly ahead among early voters. In the past month, Arizona has gradually moved from a solid Trump state to a marginal Clinton state, although it is still too close to call, according to the project results.

In Georgia, she enjoyed a similar lead among early voters. Overall, Georgia leans to Trump, but his lead narrowed to five percentage points this week, down from eights points last week and 13 points a month ago.

Even in Texas, where Trump enjoys a sizable lead, Clinton has a double-digit edge among early voters, according to project results.

The States of the Nation project is a survey of about 15,000 people every week in all 50 states plus Washington D.C. State by state results are available by visiting http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/

(Editing by James Dalgleish)

Photo: Democratic U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and U.S. Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) wave to the crowd during a campaign rally at Ernst Community Cultural Center in Annandale, Virginia, U.S., July 14, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria



  1. I Am Helpy October 30, 2016

    attn AgLander, Box, assorted other white supremacists who are even more forgettable: you gonna lose!

    1. Karenhmarsh October 30, 2016

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    2. Eleanore Whitaker October 30, 2016

      The reality is that Trump is not running for the people of this country. He is running for Trump. Anyone who has had to endure 4 decades of Trump always in the local and Metro area news knows that Trump is ALL about Trump.

      I am wondering how fast his two 1st wives will out him once they are certain he has lost the election. The only thing preventing that is that Trump silenced them in their divorce decrees or they forfeit $2 million a month in alimony.

      1. Blueberry Hill October 30, 2016

        They should check to see if silencing them is still in place. They do have the Freedom of Speech. Would love to see what they have to say. Marla told about him on Daily KOS a week or so ago. He would be a nightmare to live with. Have to pity them. They just discovered that all the other silencing things he had people sign are not legal and not worth paper they are written on. Thanks for the Hillary smile.


  2. itsfun October 30, 2016

    Who is counting and reporting these so-called results of early voting?

    1. Eleanore Whitaker October 30, 2016

      Awwww…Hillary winning and your slimeball dirtbag Trump is losing? If you want to know who is reporting these RESULTS moron, call the FEC. The Federal Elections Committee is charged with the duty of keeping a tally of every vote in every state. That includes mail in and absentee ballots. Get over it. Now, just be a good little winger and learn to say, “YES Madam President!”

      1. itsfun October 30, 2016

        Are you saying its legal for the federal elections committee to report election results before the election is over? You have the gull to call someone a moron when your posts prove what you are. How about saying convict when talking about your girlfriend. By the way have you paid to have any more books published so you can brag about have a book published?

        1. Eleanore Whitaker October 30, 2016

          Read my lips stupid…I posted The Federal Elections Committee is charged with the duty of keeping a TALLY of every vote in every state. DUH.

          You are not just a moron. You are a cowardly, griping, whining little runt who is too stupid to have reading skills.

          The FEC has to know how many voted in each state in order to verify there is not voter fraud …which by the way stupid…seems to only occur in Republican states. Kind of smelly don’t you think? One Trump voter in Iowa proudly announced SHE voted for Trump twice…Now she is going to get her butt in trouble for voter fraud. It’s all over FB with her photo if you need proof.

          By the way, unlike you, I CAN write books. You? You have trouble flushing a toilet without help.

          1. itsfun October 30, 2016

            You are one very sick individual. You are only good at name calling and lying and being completely ignorant and uninformed. Your post show how unintelligent you are. You are the one that keeps saying Bill Clinton was never impeached and you called part of the constitution bogus. You should check into a mental health institution ASAP. There you will be able to write more bs and pay someone to publish your bs.

          2. Eleanore Whitaker October 31, 2016

            No mental case. A person like you who lives in a world of your own creation can be found in any mental asylum in the country. I provide facts I can prove that will hold up in court.

            Not the BS lies you never have any proof of without resorting to your right wing biased BS.

            Bill Clinton finished out 8 years of a presidency. Just like you are a lying crook, Rove was out to destroy the Clinton presidency just like the thief and rapist you want for president now, Trump, is being supported by the same right wing jackasses. What I posted was that the Republican Majority called for Clinton’s impeachment.

            Here are the facts dumbass: “Bill Clinton was acquitted. The senate did not reach the 2/3’s majority needed to fully process his impeachment. Clinton was impeached by the House on two charges. The first being perjury, and the second being obstruction of justice.”

            And anyway, just like you try to destroy Hillary which now has the FBI dir. Comey’s head on a silver platter, impeachment does not mean removal from office. Go ahead jackass…tell me how Clinton didn’t finish out his 8 years…I DARE you.

          3. itsfun October 31, 2016

            You cannot understand the difference between impeachment and removal. The House impeaches, then the Senate holds a trial for removal from office or not. Clinton was not convicted by the Senate, therefore he was not removed from office. Show me or anyone where I ever said Clinton was removed from office. I have explained the process to you several times, I even cut and pasted the part of the U.S. Constitution about impeachment and removal for you, and you called it bogus. You are one hardheaded, stubborn, ignorant individual.
            You dare me, again you sound like a 5 year old kid daring someone to step on a sidewalk crack. Are you going trick or treating tonight also. You are losing it in your old again.

          4. Eleanore Whitaker November 1, 2016

            No YOU do not understand the difference between impeachment and removal. If you are vying for asshat of the century you big baby, you got it. You win.

            However, when you impeach a president for a CONSENTUAL sex act your own Gingrich and that pedophile Hastert were both guilty of while they were busy trying to get rid of Pres. Clinton. you prove how screwed up your brain is.

            Now dirtbag, here is what actuall happened according to the government records on Clinton’s impeachment: The impeachment case is sent to the United States Senate for trial. “If the Senate votes by a two-thirds majority to convict, then the person will be removed from office. In impeachment cases against the President, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court shall preside.”

            Clinton was acquitted you numbnut because there were not enough Senate votes. So he was acquitted.

            You and your Republicans are now in HUGE trouble. YOu better believe we Dems will call for both Gowdy and Chaffetz removal from office for bribing the FBI dir. And, Comey will be forced to resign. All this does is add to the load of trash you pigs of the right are so ready to dump on innocent people.

            Guess what shitforbrains…Trump has to appear in a Florida court on Nov. 28 for RAPE…got that? RAPE…of a 13 year old girl and she has the video of it. Wow…I can’t wait till Trump goes to prison.

          5. itsfun November 1, 2016

            Now you lie about your lies. I explained the whole process to you. You are the one that kept saying Clinton did not get impeached because he finished his term. How many times did I have to tell you he wasn’t removed but was impeached? You thought they were the same thing. I had to completely educate you on the impeachment and removal process and now you are trying to say you know the processes. You are becoming a complete joke on this site. Now you are making up things like Gowdy bribed the FBI. A week ago you dems were praising Comey, now when he does his job, you want to shoot him. If you still think Hillary is innocent of everything, then you do live in a fantasy world. Tell me do you believe pigs fly too? I have said many times that if Trump is guilty of rape, he belongs in prison. I wonder if he would get the cell next to Hillary? Your dementia is getting worse.

          6. Eleanore Whitaker November 2, 2016

            You do know you are delusional, don’t you? I have no reason to lie. Clinton was acquitted of impeachment charges, Here is the link if you know how to read anything but that translate Bible of yours: The Senate today acquitted President Clinton on two articles of impeachment, falling short of even a majority vote on either of the charges against him: perjury and obstruction of justice.

            After a harrowing year of scandal and investigation, the five-week-long Senate trial of the President — only the second in the 210-year history of the Republic — culminated shortly after noon when the roll calls began that would determine Mr. Clinton’s fate.

            ”Is respondent William Jefferson Clinton guilty or not guilty?” asked Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist, in his gold-striped black robe. In a hushed chamber, with senators standing one by one to pronounce Mr. Clinton ”guilty” or ”not guilty,” the Senate rejected the charge of perjury, 55 to 45, with 10 Republicans voting against conviction.

            It then split 50-50 on a second article accusing Mr. Clinton of obstruction of justice in concealing his affair with Monica S. Lewinsky. Five Republicans broke ranks on the obstruction-of-justice charge. No Democrats voted to convict on either charge, and it would have taken a dozen of them, and all 55 Republicans, to reach the two-thirds majority of 67 senators required for conviction. ”In voting to acquit the President, I do so with grave misgivings for I do not mean in any way to exonerate this man,” Senator Susan Collins of Maine, one of the Republicans to break with her party, said in a statement.

            Now, do you like that your boy Hastert played for 17 years with little boys but that isn’t a case for impeachment back then? http://www.salon.com/2016/04/25/republicans_rush_to_defend_dennis_hastert_plead_court_for_leniency_in_pedophile_hush_money_case/ http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/04/07/report-four-have-accused-hastert-sexual-abuse.html …Want more? You okay your boys preying on children but then an act of consentual sex between two adults Monica and Clinton are worse? Who is demented bitch?

          7. itsfun November 2, 2016

            What is wrong with you? I have said several times Clinton was not removed from office, he was impeached. They are two different things. The House impeaches and the Senate removes. He was impeached, but not removed from office by the Senate. Why is that so hard to get through your head? Take your dementia pills and take a nap.

          8. Eleanore Whitaker November 2, 2016

            I know you think you can change your story you lie about but your posts are already out there. You one one mentally unhinged nut. The House impeaches and the Senate removes. But the Senate didn’t remove Clinton. If you bothered to check the link I provided as proof, you see that the Senate voted to ACQUIT. You know why. All Bill Clinton had to do back then was to expose the pedophile Hastert that your boys and you all approved of continuing in as then Speaker. So dirtbag. Deny that.

          9. itsfun November 2, 2016

            I am the one that had to educate you on the process. I not only tried to explain it to you, but I also cut and pasted the process in the Constitution for you to read. You are one that called what I pasted bogus. Then when you realized you were completely wrong, you accused me of “setting you up”. The posts are out here and if I have to I will make sure everyone of the posts are put up for everyone to read and show just what a liar you are.

      2. Blueberry Hill October 30, 2016

        Yes Madam President, sounds so great, can’t wait. lol


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