Tag: consumer confidence
New York Fed Survey Finds Broad Optimism About Jobs And Income Under Biden

New York Fed Survey Finds Broad Optimism About Jobs And Income Under Biden

A survey released on Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that American households say they expect increased personal earnings and better employment prospects in President Joe Biden's second year in office.

The Survey of Consumer Expectations is a monthly survey of approximately 1,300 households giving their views on earnings growth, job prospects, inflation, and credit.

In the December 2021 survey, respondents said they expected their earnings growth for the year ahead to be 3.0 percent, which was an increase of 0.2 percent over the previous month's survey. The New York Fed said that the most optimistic expectations came from respondents "with an annual household income below $50,000."

People responding to the survey also expressed the view that unemployment will continue to decrease. Only 35.2 percent said they believe unemployment will be higher in a year, and even that was a 0.9-point drop from the November survey.

The number of respondents who said they perceived the possibility of losing their job in the next 12 months was also down 1.3 percent to 11.6 percent.

The national unemployment rate is currently 3.9 percent, down from the 6.3 percent that Biden inherited from former President Donald Trump in January 2021.

The survey also showed optimism about consumer costs in the coming year, in spite of Republican efforts to attack the Biden administration over the issue of inflation.

Respondents said that while they expected inflation to remain steady, they expect prices for gas and food to fall in the coming year.

In December, Biden said he believed supply chain problems have contributed to increased costs and expressed optimism for lowered prices in the near future.

"We are making progress on pandemic-related challenges to our supply chain which make it more expensive to get goods on shelves, and I expect more progress on that in the weeks ahead," Biden said in a December 10 statement.

Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Rises In June

U.S. Consumer Confidence Rises In June

Washington (AFP) — U.S. consumer confidence increased for the second straight month in June to its highest level since January 2008, when the U.S. economy was sinking into recession, The Conference Board reported Tuesday.

The consumer confidence index rose to 85.2, up from 82.2 the previous month, with consumers more positive about the outlook for the labor market and holding greater expectations overall for the next six months.

“Expectations regarding the short-term outlook for the economy and jobs were moderately more favorable, while income expectations were a bit mixed. Still, the momentum going forward remains quite positive,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board.

More consumers saw current conditions as “good” than as “bad,” and those seeing job opportunities as rising increased to 16.3 percent of respondents, while the number of those expecting fewer opportunities declined to 18.7 percent.

Chris Christopher, director for U.S. consumer economics at IHS Global Insight, noted the gains came despite rises in food and gasoline prices.

“Consumer confidence may take a hit during the summer months if food prices keep on increasing and consumers start feeling the pump-price pinch,” he said.

AFP Photo / Andrew Burton

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U.S. Stocks Mostly Lower Ahead Of Economic Reports

New York (AFP) – U.S. stocks Monday moved mostly lower in early trade as investors looked ahead to a smattering of economic reports in a holiday-shortened week.

About 30 minutes into trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 5.71 points (0.03 percent) to 16,484.12.

The broad-based S&P 500 slipped 1.58 (0.09 percent) to 1,839.82, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index declined 11.31 (0.27 percent) to 4,145.29.

With many investors still on holiday, trading volume this week is expected to be light, creating conditions for possible volatility. Markets are open all week, except for New Year’s Day on Wednesday.

Investors are watching for Monday’s report on pending home sales and other economic releases later in the week on consumer confidence, home prices and a few other indicators.

The Dow and S&P 500 last week pushed to new highs on three successive sessions before declining slightly on Friday. The S&P 500 is up more than 29 percent on the year.

Cooper Tire & Rubber fell 3.1 percent after announcing it had ended a proposed merger with India’s Apollo Tyres. The deal, announced in June, became bogged down in legal sniping related to labor problems within Cooper’s U.S. and Chinese operations.

Footwear maker Crocs gained 12.7 percent after announcing that Blackstone Group is investing $200 million in the company and taking a 13 percent stake. Crocs plans a $350 million stock repurchase program.

Dow component the Walt Disney Company rose 2.6 percent following a strong performance of its film “Frozen” over the important holiday weekend.

Banking giant Wells Fargo was unchanged after announcing a $591 million settlement with state-controlled mortgage finance giant Fannie Mae to resolve claims it sold defective loans prior to 2009.

Bond prices rose. The yield on the 10-year bond slipped to 2.99 percent from 3.01 percent Friday, while the 30-year fell to 3.92 percent from 3.94 percent. Bond prices and yields move inversely.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Inch Up In November

Washington (AFP) – U.S. pending home sales rose slightly in November, ending five consecutive months of declines, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said Monday.

NAR said its pending home sales index — a contract-based indicator of activity in the residential real-estate market — edged up 0.2 percent to 101.7 in November.

The November number was much weaker than the 1.5 percent average forecast of analysts.

NAR revised sharply downward the October data to a fall of 1.2 percent, double the prior estimate.

Pending home sales are a forward-looking indicator that reflects contracts signed but not closed.

“We may have reached a cyclical low because the positive fundamentals of job creation and household formation are likely to foster a fairly stable level of contract activity in 2014,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.

“Although the final months of 2013 are finishing on a soft note, the year as a whole will end with the best sales total in seven years.”

The November figure was the first gain in pending home sales since May, when mortgage interest rates began rising after the Federal Reserve signaled a scale-back in its monetary stimulus.

Compared with a year ago, the pending home sales index was down 1.6 percent.

Yun predicted that higher mortgage rates and strong home price gains would yield more modest growth in home values in 2014.

Cooper Howes of Barclays Research said that the year-end softness was due in part to the jump in mortgage rates.

“This effect has been diminishing, however, and we would expect that pending home sales will gradually resume their upward trend given the subsequent easing in financial conditions,” Howes said.

Robert Kavcic of BMO Capital Markets also said the market remained on the recovery track.

“We continue to believe that the U.S. housing market will absorb the upward move in mortgage rates and push higher in 2014, helped by still-attractive affordability, better job growth and improved confidence in the recovery,” he said.