Tag: elections 2014
Big Question In NC Senate Race: Who’s Worse — Obama Or GOP?

Big Question In NC Senate Race: Who’s Worse — Obama Or GOP?

By Jim Morrill, McClatchy Washington Bureau

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — They rose together, both elected in 2008. Now President Barack Obama and Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC), are struggling together.

Since Obama and Hagan both won in North Carolina six years ago, seen as harbingers of a resurgence of the Democrats into the South, Republicans have taken the North Carolina House of Representatives and won the state back in the 2012 presidential race.

And with Obama’s popularity sinking, Hagan is struggling to win a second term, her seat a top target for Republicans in their quest to win control of the U.S. Senate and total control of Congress for the final two years of Obama’s presidency. The race between Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis, the speaker of the state House, is one of the costliest and most pivotal in the country.

“I don’t know if any other state can say their race is going to be closer,” said independent analyst Charles Cook.

Hagan is vulnerable in large part because of Obama, and she works hard to demonstrate her independence from him. Yet she is still neck and neck in the polls, thanks in part to complaints about the aggressive conservative course Tillis and the Republicans have charted in the state government since seizing power.

Hagan was a state senator when she defeated Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), in 2008. The same year, Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state since Southerner Jimmy Carter in 1976.

That was then. Obama’s approval rating in North Carolina dropped to 38 percent in a poll released Monday by Elon University.

“People have lost confidence in President Obama and Hagan,” said Tillis, 54, a former executive with PricewaterhouseCoopers and IBM who lives in suburban Charlotte.

“This race is going to be decided by the national mood,” says Tillis strategist Paul Shumaker. “Our voters have naturally become more focused on national issues than they have on state issues.”

Not if Hagan has anything to say about it.

Tillis, she said in a recent debate, stood for policies “taking our state backward.”

She and her allies have spent millions on ads tying Tillis to controversial moves by the General Assembly, which Republicans took over in 2010 for the first time in more than a century.
Since Tillis became speaker in 2011, GOP lawmakers have put limits on voting, rejected an expansion of Medicaid, passed restrictions on abortion, and forced schools to scramble for resources.

At the same time, Hagan works to establish her independence from Obama. When he announced a visit to Charlotte this month to speak to the American Legion convention, for example, she issued a statement faulting his administration for not doing enough for veterans.

She also touts her ranking by the nonpartisan National Journal as the Senate’s most moderate member, even as Tillis trumpets her record of voting with the president 96 percent of the time.

“The president is not running in this election,” says Hagan. “What this election is about (is) the contrast between what I stand for and what Thom Tillis stands for.”

Hagan has spent more time campaigning, often at fundraisers.

“Frankly, she’s a better senator than she is a candidate,” says Charlotte supporter Mike Daisley. “She’s a little wonkish. She’s a detail-oriented policy person.”

Hagan voters are motivated by a legislative session that left many Democrats feeling disenfranchised and sparked regular protests that drew thousands.

“Somebody has to be held accountable for what the legislature did,” says Charlotte Democrat Steve Porter. “And it’s going to be Tillis.”

Photo: Third Way via Flickr

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Poll Roundup: Hagan Pulls Ahead In North Carolina

Poll Roundup: Hagan Pulls Ahead In North Carolina

As the 2014 midterm elections draw closer, pollsters across the country will begin releasing masses of data and their predictions of who will control the House of Representatives, the Senate, and statehouses across the country. We’ll put those predictions in focus and provide a brief summary of key polls. Here’s our roundup from the week of Sept. 7:

North Carolina

Democratic senator Kay Hagan’s “war on women” strategy might be “beginning to pay off,” according to a Rasmussen Reports survey released on Thursday. The poll shows Hagan leading Republican challenger Thom Tillis by 6 points (45 percent to 39 percent). Another 6 percent support another candidate, and 9 percent are still undecided. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. A month ago, Rasmussen found Tillis leading Hagan by 5 percent.

Hagan only leads by 45 to 43 percent among voters who are sure that they’ll vote in November.

Hagan leads among women by 21 points, which Rasmussen attributes to her “hammering Tillis for state budget cutbacks in the women’s health area and his opposition to the contraceptive mandate in the health care law.”

But she’s hurt by her support for Obamacare, as 53 percent of North Carolinians view it unfavorably.

A Survey USA/Civitas poll was also released this week, and showed Hagan with 46 percent of the vote and Tillis with 43 percent. The candidates were within the poll’s +/- 4.5 percent margin of error.

The Real Clear Politicspoll average has Hagan ahead by 1.8 percent.

Iowa

The Iowa Senate race is tied, according to a CNN/Opinion Research poll released on Friday. Democrat Bruce Braley has 49 percent of the vote, while Republican Joni Ernst has 48 percent. The candidates are well within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

But 20 percent of voters said that they could still change their minds before November, and some voters are still unfamiliar with the candidates: 6 percent don’t know who Ernst is, while 9 percent don’t recognize Braley.

The poll has received a lot of national attention, as Iowa is one of the seats that Republicans have a good chance of winning on their road towards a Senate majority. Ernst has also frequently been in the news for her very extreme comments, but Braley has been unable to use this extremism to gain much in the polls.

Both candidates have spent a large amount of money on their campaigns ($6 million total as of July), not including the millions flowing from outside Democratic and Republican groups.

The Real Clear Politicspoll average has Braley ahead by 1.1 points.

Colorado

Democratic senator Mark Udall leads Republican challenger Cory Gardner by 4 points (46 percent to 42 percent), according to a Denver Post/Survey USA poll released on Thursday. The poll shows that 7 percent are still undecided, 3 percent support unaffiliated candidate Steve Shogan, and 2 percent support Libertarian Gaylon Kent.

The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points, meaning that the candidates are actually almost tied. The elections “could go either way,” according to Survey USA.

“It is a very tough year to be a Democrat,” political analyst Eric Sondermann said. “[Udall] would much rather be four points up than four points down. But he’s still in a difficult race and a difficult climate.”

Udall has a 13-point lead among women and has “hammered Gardner” on his past support for abortion and birth control restrictions. But Udall is currently under fire for referencing murdered American journalists James Foley and Steven Sotloff as a part of his argument during a debate against Gardner last week.

The Real Clear Politicspoll average has Udall ahead by 3.7 points.

Wisconsin

The New York Times/CBS News/YouGov battleground tracker’s survey of likely voters finds Republican governor Scott Walker ahead of Democratic challenger Mary Burke, 47 percent to 43 percent. The poll has a +/- 4 percent margin of error, meaning that the candidates are essentially tied. Meanwhile, 5 percent of voters aren’t sure, 2 percent lean Democratic, and 2 percent lean Republican.

Men, Independents, and voters older than 45 support Walker, while women and voters under 45 support Burke.

The Real Clear Politicspoll average has Burke ahead by 0.3 points.

Kansas

A Survey USA poll released Monday shows Republican governor Sam Brownback trailing Democrat Paul Davis by 7 percent. Davis has 47 percent of the vote, Brownback has 40 percent, and 7 percent are still undecided. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.2 percent.

Brownback hasn’t retained the support of his Republican base, as only 66 percent support him. Davis has 88 percent of the Democratic vote.

“The Brownback experiment is an unmitigated failure,” Davis campaign spokesman Chris Pumpelly told KSN. “His record? Devastating cuts to schools, a stagnant economy, three credit downgrades, and a looming billion-dollar deficit.”

The New York Times/CBS News/YouGov battleground tracker has Brownback ahead 43 to 39 percent, with a +/- 5 percent margin of error.

The Real Clear Politicspoll average has Davis ahead by 3.7 points.

Photo: Third Way via Flickr

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Rothenberg Analysis: Senate GOP Gains At Least Seven Seats

Rothenberg Analysis: Senate GOP Gains At Least Seven Seats

By Stuart Rothenberg, CQ Roll Call

WASHINGTON — While the current Rothenberg Political Report ratings don’t show it, I am now expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats.

But I wouldn’t be shocked by a larger gain.

Rothenberg Political Report ratings reflect both where a race stands and, more importantly, where it is likely headed on Election Day. Since early polls rarely reflect the eventual November environment, either in terms of the candidates’ name recognition and resources or of the election’s dynamic, there is often a gap between how I categorize each race (my ratings) and what I privately assume will happen in November.

That gap closes as Election Day approaches, of course, since polling should reflect changes in name identification, candidate, and party spending, and voter attitudes as November approaches.

Right now, for example, the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call Senate ratings suggest Republican gains in the mid-single digits. My newsletter has the most likely outcome of the midterms at Republican gains of five to eight seats, with the GOP slightly more likely than not to net the six seats it needs to win Senate control.

Of the seven Mitt Romney Democratic seats up this cycle, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia are gone, and Arkansas and Louisiana look difficult to hold. Alaska and North Carolina, on the other hand, remain very competitive, and Democrats rightly point out that they have a chance to hold both seats.

But I’ve witnessed 17 general elections from my perch in D.C., including eight midterms, and I sometimes develop a sense of where the cycle is going before survey data lead me there. Since my expectations constitute little more than an informed guess, I generally keep them to myself.

This year is different. I am sharing them with you.

After looking at recent national, state, and congressional survey data and comparing this election cycle to previous ones, I am currently expecting a sizable Republican Senate wave.

The combination of an unpopular president and a midterm election (indeed, a second midterm) can produce disastrous results for the president’s party. President Barack Obama’s numbers could rally, of course, and that would change my expectations in the blink of an eye. But as long as his approval sits in the 40-percent range (the August NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll), the signs are ominous for Democrats.

The generic congressional ballot currently is about even among registered voters. If that doesn’t change, it is likely to translate into a Republican advantage of a few points among “likely” voters. And recent elections when Republicans have even a small advantage have resulted in significant GOP years.

The map, which has always been the single biggest reason why Republicans will gain Senate seats, continues to give Republicans plenty of opportunities and Democrats relatively few (though the Kansas developments change that slightly). In an anti-Obama election, most of those Democratic opportunities will evaporate.

Given the president’s standing, the public’s disappointment with the direction of the country, the makeup of the midterm electorate and the ’14 Senate map, I expect a strong breeze at the back of the GOP this year.

And if there is a strong breeze, most of the races now regarded as competitive will fall one way — toward Republicans. That doesn’t happen all of the time, of course, but it’s far from unusual.

In 2006, for example, Democrats won three of the four closest Senate contests, in Missouri, Montana, and Virginia. Only Tennessee went Republican, and it wouldn’t have been close if Democrats had not had a strong wind at their backs nationally.

In 1986 — like 2006, a second midterm election — all six of the closest Senate contests were won by Democrats, including three (Colorado, California, and North Dakota) where the Democrats drew less than 50 percent of the vote.

Democratic incumbents Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Mary L. Landrieu of Louisiana, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Kay Hagan of North Carolina all would be headed for re-election in a “good” Democratic year, such as President George W. Bush’s second midterm, when voters were unhappy with a Republican president and Democrats constituted the alternative.

But if history is any guide, at least two of them, and quite possibly all four, will lose this year — even with all the huffing and puffing from journalists over how brilliant their campaigns have been and how weak the GOP challengers are.

Although there are exceptions, state-level polls generally show Pryor, Landrieu, Begich, and Hagan stuck in the mid-40s against their Republican opponents. Sometimes the Democrat is ahead by a point or two, and sometimes he or she is even or a point behind. But that doesn’t really matter. Either way, all are in precarious positions, particularly given the national atmosphere against their party.

Right now, this cycle looks much like 2010, when Democrats with reasonable profiles got crushed in Republican-leaning and swing states. Rep. Brad Ellsworth lost his Senate bid by 18 points in Indiana, Sen. Blanche Lincoln lost re-election by 21 in Arkansas, and Rep. Paul Hodes lost his Senate race by more than 23 in New Hampshire. The much-ballyhooed Robin Carnahan of Missouri lost her Senate bid by almost 14 points, while Wisconsin incumbent Russ Feingold lost by 5 points.

None of them could overcome the national dynamic favoring the GOP.

To be sure, Pryor is much better off now than Lincoln was at this point in 2010, and Republican challengers have not “put away” any Senate races. But any Democratic incumbent sitting in the mid-40s in a very Republican state probably can’t expect to get the benefit of the doubt from voters. And that puts Democratic Senate seats in swing states like Iowa and Colorado at great risk too, especially if the GOP “breeze” that I am expecting actually appears.

With the president looking weaker and the news getting worse, Democratic candidates in difficult and competitive districts are likely to have a truly burdensome albatross around their necks.

That is why, at least right now, I expect 2014 to be a big Senate year for the GOP — even if my current ratings don’t quite show it.
___

Rothenberg is a nonpartisan political analyst/handicapper who has been a Roll Call columnist for more than 20 years.

AFP Photo/Michael Mathes

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Sen. Mark Udall Apologizes For Invoking Slain U.S. Journalists

Sen. Mark Udall Apologizes For Invoking Slain U.S. Journalists

By Kurtis Lee, Los Angeles Times

Sen. Mark Udall (D-C0) on Monday apologized for invoking the names of two American journalists who were recently beheaded by Islamic State militants as he argued in a debate over the weekend.

“Steve Sotloff and James Foley would tell us, don’t be impulsive,” Udall said Saturday at a town-hall-style debate against Republican Rep. Cory Gardner in Grand Junction, Colo. “Horrible and barbarous as those executions were, don’t be impulsive, come up with a plan to knock ISIL back.” ISIL is a former abbreviation of the militant group.

Udall, who is vying for a second term and faces a formidable challenge from Gardner in a one of the country’s most competitive Senate midterm contests, got blowback for the comments when video of the debate surfaced Monday.

Gardner, who didn’t call out Udall on the comments at the debate, joined a chorus of Republicans on Monday who castigated the senior senator, saying his statements were “deeply troubling.”

“Americans have watched in horror in recent weeks as two of our fellow countrymen have been brutally executed by terrorists, and it’s outrageous that Sen. Udall would put words into the mouths of dead Americans,” Gardner said in a statement.

Sotloff and Foley were killed in recent weeks by Islamic State militants. Since early August the United States has conducted more than 140 airstrikes on militant targets in Iraq. President Barack Obama is set to address the nation Wednesday to outline a broader offensive against Islamic State militants.

Udall, who sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Monday in an apology statement that his intent was to “emphasize the importance of taking the right next steps as we confront this serious threat.”

“When addressing ISIL during this weekend’s debate, I should not have invoked the names of James Foley and Steven Sotloff. It was inappropriate and I sincerely apologize,” Udall said. “It is critically important for the United States, our allies and countries in the region to beat back ISIL. These terrorists are a serious threat to U.S. interests and allies in the Middle East, and Americans are counting on their leaders to get this right.”

A recent Marist survey gave Udall a 48 percent to 42 percent lead over Gardner with less than two months until Election Day. Other nonpartisan polls released since July have shown Udall with slight advantages over Gardner.

Photo: Mark Udall via Flickr

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