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Poll Roundup: Scott Brown Catches Up In New Hampshire

Poll Roundup: Scott Brown Catches Up In New Hampshire

As the 2014 midterm elections draw closer, pollsters across the country will begin releasing masses of data and their predictions of who will control the House of Representatives, the Senate, and statehouses across the country. We’ll put those predictions in focus and provide a brief summary of key polls. Here’s our roundup from the week of August 17:

New Hampshire

The New Hampshire Senate race has gotten significantly closer, according to a new WMUR Granite State poll that has Republican Scott Brown in a “dead heat” with Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen. Brown only trails Shaheen by 2 percent, with a +/- 4 percent margin of error.

A CBS News/New York Timessurvey conducted last month showed Shaheen ahead by 10 points.

This drastic change could have something to do with the fact that it’s still a bit early to conduct polls in New Hampshire. The Republican primary, which Brown will most likely win, won’t be held until September 9. Only 27 percent of likely voters say they definitely know who they’re going to vote for in the general election, while 13 percent are leaning towards someone, and 60 percent are still trying to decide. But if the election were held today, 46 percent would vote for Shaheen, 44 percent for Brown, 1 percent for someone else, and 9 percent remain undecided.

Though Shaheen is popular in New Hampshire, with a 48 percent favorability rating, the pollsters think the major polling shift has to do with national conditions and President Obama’s low popularity in the state (only 37 percent of voters approve of his job performance). Meanwhile, only 36 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Brown, whose campaign has faltered throughout the summer.

The Real Clear Politicspoll average has Shaheen ahead of Brown by 6.6 percent.

North Carolina

Democratic senator Kay Hagan (D) is essentially tied with Republican challenger Thom Tillis, according to the latest USA Today/Suffolk University poll. The survey finds that 45 percent of voters support Hagan, 43 percent prefer Tillis, 5 percent would vote for Libertarian Sean Haugh, 5 percent are undecided, and 1 percent did not select a choice. But when the survey asked Haugh supporters to pick their second choice, most sided with Tillis.

The survey finds that voters have unfavorable views of both candidates, Congress, and the state legislature, where Tillis is the House Speaker. Hagan has a large lead among women and minorities, while Tillis leads among men and whites. Hagan supporters are primarily concerned about jobs and education, while Tillis backers care about the budget and national security.

“North Carolina is going to be a central battleground in the national parties’ efforts to control the Senate in the 114th Congress,” Andrew Taylor, a political scientist at North Carolina State University, told USA Today. “There are estimates of $35 million spent (by the campaigns and outside groups) and it’s just the middle of August.” That onslaught of overwhelmingly negative TV ads “fits with the sour mood North Carolina is in.”

The Real Clear Politicspoll average has Tillis ahead by one point.

Kansas

The latest survey from Public Policy Polling, which leans Democratic, has Republican governor Sam Brownback behind Democratic challenger Paul Davis by 2 percent. It finds that 39 percent of voters support Davis, 37 percent would vote for Brownback, 9 percent would vote for Libertarian Keen Umbehr, and 15 percent are still undecided. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent, which means that the candidates are essentially tied. This poll is a lot closer than previous polls, such as a recent Rasmussen Reports survey that had Davis ahead of Brownback by 10 percent.

PPP pollsters note that Umbehr is actually helping Brownback, as 65 percent of Umbehr supporters say their second choice would be Davis. If Umbehr wasn’t in the race, voters would support Davis by a 44-39 margin.

“[Republican senator] Pat Roberts and Sam Brownback are both very unpopular,” Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling, said. “Those things are combining to make it a much more interesting election year than usual in Kansas.”

The Huffington Post’s model estimate has Davis ahead of Brownback by 3.8 percent.

Connecticut

Incumbent Democratic governor Dan Malloy is behind Republican challenger Thomas Foley by 7 points, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey released Thursday. Foley has the support of 45 percent of voters, while 38 percent say they would vote for Malloy, 7 percent would vote for another candidate, and 10 percent are undecided. The survey has a +/- 4 percent margin of error.

Foley lost to Malloy in 2010 by only 6,500 votes, so November will be a rematch for the two. Foley’s been ahead of Malloy in almost every poll for the past few months, and is trying to present himself as a strong businessman who can bring “change” from Malloy, whom he blames for high taxes and poor schools.

Malloy has emphasized his swift response to the Newtown tragedy and the way he took charge during Hurricane Sandy.

The Real Clear Politicspoll average has Foley ahead of Malloy by 4.6 percent.

Photo: Talk Radio News Service via Flickr

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Poll Roundup: Is McConnell Pulling Away From Grimes?

Poll Roundup: Is McConnell Pulling Away From Grimes?

As the 2014 midterm elections draw closer, pollsters across the country will begin releasing masses of data and their predictions of who will control the House of Representatives, the Senate, and statehouses across the country. We’ll put those predictions in focus and provide a brief summary of key polls. Here’s our roundup from the week of August 10:

Kentucky

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) appears to be slowly pulling ahead of his Democratic challenger, Alison Lundergan Grimes. The latest poll from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling finds that 44 percent of voters support McConnell, while 40 percent would vote for Grimes, 7 percent back Libertarian candidate David Patterson, and 9 percent are still undecided.

In PPP’s April survey, Grimes led McConnell 45 to 44. But since then, he’s managed to shore up support within his Republican base. When his primary opponent Matt Bevin was still in the race, McConnell only had a 49-point advantage among Republicans. Today, he has a 67-point advantage (78 percent of Republican voters back McConnell, while just 11 percent side with Grimes). When support for Patterson is taken into account, McConnell has a 63-point lead among fellow Republicans.

McConnell’s managed to improve his favorability rating, while Grimes’ numbers are stagnant. Grimes is also hurt by President Barack Obama’s unpopularity in the state. The survey finds that only 32 percent of voters approve of the job he’s doing, and that 38 percent of the voters who disapprove of McConnell also see Obama unfavorably. But 20 percent of those voters are still planning to vote for the Republican incumbent.

The Real Clear Politics poll average has McConnell ahead by 3 percent.

Wisconsin

In what the latest Rasmussen Reports survey calls the “nation’s closest-watched governor’s race,” Republican governor Scott Walker leads Democratic challenger Mary Burke by only 48 to 47 percent. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent, so the candidates are essentially tied.

The general election campaign officially started this week after Burke won her Democratic primary. She’s the first female nominee for Wisconsin governor from the two main political parties.

Both candidates are planning to center their campaigns around jobs. Burke has repeatedly highlighted the fact that Wisconsin ranks last among Midwestern states in job creation, and that Walker hasn’t created the 250,000 jobs he promised he would. Walker has emphasized the 100,300 jobs he has created, and says that Wisconsin is better off than it was before he took office.

Sean Sullivan notes in The Washington Post that Walker should not be “underestimated,” because he’s already raised far more money than Burke. He also points out that “no other potential 2016 hopeful has as much riding on the midterm election as Walker,” because if he can’t win this election, he won’t stand a chance of pursuing the White House.

The Real Clear Politicspoll average has Walker ahead by only 0.8 percent.

Kansas

Republican governor Sam Brownback is trailing Democratic challenger Paul Davis in a Rasmussen Reports survey released on Tuesday. The poll finds that Davis has 51 percent support, 41 percent would vote for Brownback, 3 percent support some other candidate, and 5 percent are still undecided. The poll has a +/- 4 percent margin of error.

Brownback’s biggest hurdle is the fact that his state budget is “bleeding revenue” due to his staggering income tax cuts. By 2016, the state will be $238 million in debt. The survey finds that 49 percent of voters think that the budget situation is worse today than it was a year ago, 36 percent said it’s the same, and only 12 percent said it was better. Respondents trust Davis more when it comes to spending; 43 percent trust Davis, 36 percent trust Brownback, and 21 percent weren’t sure.

But many voters still don’t know who Davis is — 19 percent said they had never heard of him and 10 percent weren’t sure what they thought about him.

The Real Clear Politicspoll average has Davis ahead by 2 points.

Illinois

A new Sun-Times/We Ask America poll shows Democratic governor Pat Quinn well behind Republican challenger Bruce Rauner, 51 to 38 percent, with 11 percent undecided. The survey has a +/- 3.1 percent margin of error.

Only 21 percent view the incumbent Quinn as a reformer, while 47 percent see Rauner in that mold. Additonally, Quinn is currently under fire for his $54.5 million Neighborhood Recovery Initiative, which is now under federal investigation due to corruption and mismanagement.

But We Ask America’s chief operating officer Gregg Durham predicts that the race will get much closer as November approaches.

“While Mr. Rauner continues to enjoy a 13-point lead, this race will certainly tighten dramatically barring any unforeseen events. An incumbent governor in a state with the sizable problems Illinois has often suffers in early polls with those who would have a tendency to back his party but may be disappointed with his performance,” he said. “However, those same voters usually ‘come home’ on election day. Keep that in mind.”

The Real Clear Politicspoll average has Rauner ahead by 7 points.

Photo: Gage Skidmore via Flickr

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Poll Roundup: Hawaii Primaries Go Down To The Wire

Poll Roundup: Hawaii Primaries Go Down To The Wire

As the 2014 midterm elections draw closer, pollsters across the country will begin releasing masses of data and their predictions of who will control the House of Representatives, the Senate, and statehouses across the country. We’ll put those predictions in focus and provide a brief summary of key polls. Here’s our roundup from the week of August 3:

Hawaii

As Hawaii braces itself for two hurricanes, it also has an election to worry about on Saturday. The state’s Democratic Senate primary is currently splitting the party between two candidates fighting for the late Daniel K. Inouye’s former seat, which he held for almost 50 years. When Inouye passed away in 2012, Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) appointed his lieutenant governor, Brian Schatz, to the seat. But many believe that Inouye’s last wish was for Abercrombie to appoint Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, and have been furious with him for going with Schatz instead.

Inouye was beloved by Hawaii residents for his ability to secure funding from Washington for the state. In their campaigns, both Schatz and Hanabusa have emphasized the money they’ve brought to Hawaii.

The latest Honolulu Civil Beat poll has Schatz ahead by 8 percent (49 to 41 percent), and The Huffington Post’s pollster trend has Schatz leading Hanabusa by 7 points. But a recent survey from the Honolulu Star-Advertiser showed Hanabusa up 8 (50 to 42 percent), with a +/- 4.6 percent margin of error.

Governor Abercrombie also has a very tough race. He trails state Sen. David Ige by 10 points, according to a Honolulu Civil Beat poll. Ige has the support of 51 percent of voters, while only 41 percent would vote for Abercrombie. The Honolulu Star-Advertiserpoll has Abercrombie behind by 18 points (54 to 36 percent).

But as The Los Angeles Times’ Kurtis Lee points out, “polling is difficult and often unreliable in Hawaii, which has one of the worst turnout rates in the country.”

North Carolina

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll finds state Senator Thom Tillis (R) ahead of Senator Kay Hagan (D), 45 to 40 percent — 6 percent support another candidate, and 9 percent are still undecided. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

The poll shows that 73 percent of Democrats support Hagan, while 79 percent of Republicans back Tillis. Tillis also leads among voters who aren’t registered with either party.

The survey looked at two of the major issues that pollsters think will affect the race: immigration and the Affordable Care Act. Not surprisingly, North Carolinians who support the deportation of migrant children support Tillis, while those who want to make it easier for Central American refugees to stay in the United States are more likely to vote for Hagan.

Only 39 percent of voters have a positive opinion of the Affordable Care Act, and 87 percent of them support Hagan, while 83 percent of those with a very unfavorable opinion of the health care law would vote for Tillis.

The Real Clear Politicspoll average has Tillis ahead by 1.3 points.

Pennsylvania

In his best showing in any poll in months, Governor Tom Corbett (R) now only trails Democrat Tom Wolf by 12 points, according to a Republican-leaning Magellan survey released on Tuesday. The poll finds that 50.3 percent back Wolf, 38.1 percent support Corbett, and 11.6 percent are still undecided. The poll has a +/- 2.83 percent margin of error.

Corbett’s only 7 points behind among voters who say they’ve definitely decided for whom they’re voting.

Wolf is so far ahead because he’s locked down 80 percent of the Democratic base, while Corbett has the support of only 64 percent of Republicans. But the survey shows that undecided voters are far more likely to vote for Corbett, as 50 percent are registered Republicans, while only 36 percent are Democrats. And as voters get to know Wolf better, his favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is dropping, which will benefit Corbett.

Corbett is hurting because of his education cuts, which 42 percent believe have been drastic. But 47 percent of undecided voters said they would be less likely to vote for Wolf if they knew about his goal to raise state income taxes.

The Real Clear Politicspoll average still has Wolf ahead by 18.6 points.

Florida

The latest Survey USA poll finds Republican governor Rick Scott leading Democratic challenger Charlie Crist, 45 to 43 percent, with a +/- 4.6 percent margin of error. This is a 5-point improvement for Scott and a  3-point drop for Crist since Survey USA’s poll two weeks ago. The survey also finds that 8 percent would vote for another candidate and 4 percent are still undecided.

In this survey, Scott reached his highest support from male voters and seniors to date. He’s also winning Independents. But moderates would rather vote for Crist by a 21-point margin. Crist also leads among women, and among every age group except for seniors.

The Real Clear Politicspoll average has Crist ahead by only 0.8 points.

Photo: Waikiki Natatorium via Flickr

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Poll Roundup: Ugly Mississippi Race Still Up For Grabs

Poll Roundup: Ugly Mississippi Race Still Up For Grabs

As the 2014 midterm elections draw closer, pollsters across the country will begin releasing masses of data and their predictions of who will control the House of Representatives, the Senate, and statehouses across the country. We’ll put those predictions in focus and provide a brief summary of key polls. Here’s our roundup from the week of June 15:

Mississippi
The week leading up to the runoff in Mississippi’s Republican Senate primary has been full of mudslinging, as six-term incumbent Thad Cochran attempts to fight back state senator Chris McDaniel’s claims that he’s not a real conservative.

The Cochran campaign released a video last weekend featuring clips from McDaniel’s days as a right-wing talk radio host. The video includes quotes such as, “Mamasita, hey hot Momma. You know you’re a fine looking young thing.”

The latest poll, conducted by Democratic pollster Chism Strategies on June 13, shows that the attacks aren’t opening things up. The race remains a dead heat, with Cochran ahead by a 48 to 47 percent margin. Cochran’s lead is well within the poll’s +/-3.3 percent margin of error.

The Polling Company, a Republican group affiliated with Citizens United, also conducted a poll from June 12-13 that shows McDaniel ahead by a 52 to 40 percent margin, with a +/- 4.4 percent margin of error.

Real Clear Politics’ poll average shows McDaniel ahead by 5.5 points.

Ultimately, the race will come down to which attacks voters pay more attention to, and whose supporters are more motivated to actually vote in the runoff.

North Carolina
Public Policy Polling’s latest poll of the North Carolina Senate race shows incumbent Democratic senator Kay Hagan ahead of Republican State House Speaker Thom Tillis by a 39 to 34 percent margin, with 11 percent for Libertarian Sean Haugh. This is Hagan’s largest lead in any survey since September.

Though the Real Clear Politics poll average shows that the race is a tie, Tillis has had a rough week.

On Tuesday, Talking Points Memo uncovered a video from 2012 where Tillis suggested that African-Americans and Hispanics were not the “traditional population of North Carolina.”

He also said last week that a female state representative’s comments “were born out of emotions.”

Hagan may also soon receive a boost from EMILY’s List and Planned Parenthood, which are both planning to spend $3 million in the state to support her re-election campaign.

Iowa
Though U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA) is ahead of Republican state senator Joni Ernst by a 44 to 40 percent margin (+/- 2.7 percent) in Quinnipiac University’s latest poll, released on Wednesday, the Real Clear Politics poll average shows them deadlocked, with Braley ahead by only 0.8 points. Ernst has risen dramatically since Quinnipiac’s poll in March, when Braley was ahead by a 42 to 29 percent margin.

Wednesday’s poll reveals a large gender gap, as women overwhelmingly support the male candidate and men support the female candidate. Braley leads 47 to 36 percent among women, while Ernst leads 44 to 40 percent among men.

The poll also shows that more voters (47 percent) have seen Ernst’s ads “very often” or “somewhat often” as opposed to Braley’s ads (35 percent), and 57 percent of voters say Ernst’s ads are “very effective” or “somewhat effective”; 50 percent of voters think Braley’s ads are effective.

When asked who they would vote for, 14 percent of voters selected the don’t know/not applicable option.

New Hampshire
A Suffolk/Boston Heraldpoll taken from June 14 to 18 shows incumbent Democratic senator Jeanne Shaheen ahead of Scott Brown by a 49 percent to 39 percent margin — 3 percent support Libertarian Gardner Goldsmith and 9 percent of voters are undecided.

Brown, who moved to New Hampshire from Massachusetts after losing to Senator Elizabeth Warren (D) in 2012, will most likely win his Republican primary on Septetmber 9. He leads his closest rival, former senator Bob Smith, by 28 percentage points.

To have a chance against Shaheen, Brown is going to have to improve his image in the state. Only 35 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of him, while 46 percent view him unfavorably.

The Real Clear Politics poll average shows Shaheen with a 8.2 percent lead.

Screenshot via YouTube

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