Tag: popularity
Analysis: How Bill Clinton, Improbably, Became America’s Favorite Politician

Analysis: How Bill Clinton, Improbably, Became America’s Favorite Politician

By Mark Z. Barabak, Los Angeles Times

When Bill Clinton left the White House in January 2001, Americans had experienced quite enough of the boisterous Big Dog and his unending dramas, both personal and political.

Republican George W. Bush defeated Clinton’s vice president and preferred successor, fellow Democrat Al Gore, in no small part due to an enervating electoral affliction known as Clinton fatigue.

It hardly mattered that the incumbent was nowhere on the ballot. When Bush solemnly pledged to “restore honor and dignity” to the Oval Office, it was widely accepted as a not-terribly-veiled dig at the adulterous Clinton and his carryings-on with the pizza-delivering intern Monica Lewinsky.

In 1998, the Democrats had managed the rare feat of gaining congressional seats in a midterm election. But that was more a testament to Republican overreach than a tribute to the soon-to-be-impeached president.

When he wasn’t battling to stay in office, Clinton raised money for Democrats but was otherwise of little political utility — in much the same way President Barack Obama finds himself battered and belittled at this unhappy midpoint of his second term.

All of which makes it rather remarkable that today Clinton, as reviled a figure as ever served in the White House, stands as arguably the most popular political figure in America.

It’s not just his desirability to campaign for Democrats who, apart from distant fundraising assistance, want absolutely nothing to do with the current occupant of the White House. (First lady Michelle Obama, however, is still OK to visit.)

A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed that, alone among today’s major political figures, Clinton is seen in an overwhelmingly positive light, with 56 percent approving of the former president compared to 21 percent who disapprove.

Those handsome numbers compare to Bush’s middling 37 percent to 38 percent rating — though he, too, has been rising in the public’s estimation since leaving office — Obama’s dismal 42 percent to 46 percent rating and overall disapproval of a pair of potential 2016 Republican contestants, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, seen favorably by 23 percent and unfavorably by 27 percent of those asked, and Bush’s younger brother, Jeb, a former Florida governor, with a 22 percent favorable to 30 percent unfavorable rating.

Granted, Clinton is the most spectacularly gifted politician of his generation and the economic boom years coinciding with his time in office make him look, in the roseate rear view, all the better and more accomplished.

His globe-hopping good works, doting fatherhood and distinguished corona of white hair all give off the rarified air of a statesman and that, too, serves to enhance his stature.

But in great part the Clinton revival and continued rise in the public’s esteem speaks to the way Americans prefer their politicians, which is to say retired and no longer grasping for higher office or mucking about in partisan matters.

Look no further than Clinton’s spouse, the former first lady, New York senator and secretary of state, whose poll standing has headed steadlily southward the closer she edges to her own expected bid for president in 2016.

The NBC/Wall Street Journal survey found those interviewed were roughly split, 43 percent favorable and 41 percent unfavorable, in their estimation of Hillary Rodham Clinton.

That so-so assessment compares to a 56 percent to 25 percent approval rating when she ended her time as secretary of State in January and 51 percent to 31 percent a year ago, before she embarked on a rocky book tour, began weighing in on developments like Ferguson, Missouri, and began other conspicuous moves toward a second try for president.

It is not just Hillary Clinton, though.

Much of the sentiment behind a third Mitt Romney try for the White House rests on his emergence in the last year or so as a kind of jolly-good-Republican, showing up to endorse GOP candidates with a gleaming smile and self-deprecating his way through interviews while disavowing any interest in another run in 2016.

That’s far different from the rough and tumble of a campaign, and it’s why people come off so much better when they’re not actually running for office. It’s like a new car, which begins losing value the instant it’s driven off the lot; the moment someone declares their desire to win office, everything they do and say is freighted with personal ambition and weighed on the scale of political calculation.

Bill Clinton and George W. Bush made a joint appearance this week in Washington, laughing and joshing like two old pals — Clinton actually has grown close to the Bush family in one of the more improbable post-presidential alliances — and the audience loved them for their bipartisan show of bonhomie.

All of which offers a glint of hope for the embattled incumbent hunkered down in the White House this sour election season.

In a column last spring, Yahoo‘s Matt Bai noted the kindlier light being shed these days on the second Bush presidency and suggested Obama take heart. “One day in 2022 or thereabout, he will get out of bed in Chicago or Honolulu to discover that even those who grew disillusioned now remember why they found him compelling in the first place,” Bai wrote. “There will be the inevitable chorus of, “Say what you want about Obama, but at least he wasn’t … ”

Just ask Bill Clinton, who proves there is such a thing as a sixth, seventh — or is it eighth or ninth? — act in American politics.

AFP Photo/Esther Lim

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POLL: Even George W. Bush Did Less Damage To GOP Than Ted Cruz

POLL: Even George W. Bush Did Less Damage To GOP Than Ted Cruz

February 2009 should have been the lowest possible point for the Republican Party. President Obama had just become the 44th president of the United States with the largest majorities in both houses of Congress that any president had enjoyed in generations.

The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll that month found that 26 percent of Americans had a favorable view of the GOP, while 47 percent didn’t. The latest version of the same poll finds that 24 percent see the party positively, and 47 percent negatively.

This isn’t even the GOP’s lowest point in the poll. That came in late October of last year, immediately after the government shutdown, when only 22 percent had a positive opinion compared to 53 percent negative.

Republicans began the first year of President Obama’s second term with about 33 percent seeing the party positively in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. The peak was 38 percent, just before the government shutdown.

In an aggregate of polls tracking the GOP’s favorability, the trend is even more obvious. The party’s favorable ratings, which were already underwater, took a dip as the government shutdown neared — that’s when they nosedived, and haven’t recovered since.

You can call it a gift from Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) to the Republican Party.

approval

The GOP’s shutdown disaster was neatly followed by the lowest point in the Obamacare rollout, which severely nipped President Obama’s approval ratings. The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll had the president at 52 percent positive/37 percent negative as he began 2012. This month it is at 42 percent positive with 44 percent negative, which is an improvement from the last few months, and far better than the GOP — but still nothing much to brag about.

However, there are good numbers for the president in the new poll, besides a reverse in the trend in his popularity.

Most Americans, 51 percent, think he has a clear agenda — and they largely agree with him on it. More than 9 out of 10 say creating jobs is a priority this year, which is followed by 74 percent who prioritize deficit reduction. Given that most Americans are unaware that the deficit was cut by 37 percent last year and will fall even further this year, they’re in for a happy surprise.

Majorities also say that ensuring all children have pre-kindergaten education, addressing Iran’s nuclear program, closing corporate tax loopholes, withdrawing all American troops from Afghanistan, reforming Social Security and Medicare and increasing the minimum wage are all priorities.

Most encouragingly, even after the rocky start, 54 percent say they want to “keep and fix the new health law.”

Just a month ago, 2014 seemed as if it could be another 2010-like disaster for the Democratic Party, as it trailed in the generic congressional ballot in a year where historically, the president’s party gets routed. Republicans now trail Democrats by 2 percent in the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll and 3.3 percent in an aggregate of recent polls.

As the president’s numbers recover, and his agenda gets the spotlight in the State of the Union address, he has an opportunity to reshape the political conversation in his favor.

Photo: jbouie via Flickr

POLL: Obama Still Most Popular World Leader

POLL: Obama Still Most Popular World Leader

Though his popularity is down from its peak in 2009, President Obama remains the world’s most popular leader among the world’s citizens as the G20 gathers for a summit in Russia, according to Pew Research.

“Only Angela Merkel comes close to the breadth of Obama’s popularity,” writes Pew’s Andrew Kohut. However, Obama inspired more confidence than the German chancellor in seven out of eight major German countries polled last year.

Confidence in Obama’s international policies has declined in every country that was polled in 2009 and again during the beginning of his second term — except in Israel.

In Egypt, confidence has declined 16 percent as the U.S. government has been blasted by both supporters of ousted president Mohammed Morsi and the current military government.

Obama’s personal appeal is more responsible for his popularity than his policies.

“A global median of 54 percent across the 39 countries surveyed by Pew Research in 2013 express confidence in Obama to do the right thing in world affairs, while just 47 percent approve of his international policies,” Kohut notes. “The gap between people’s trust in the American president and their support for his policies is particularly large in Canada (+16 percentage points) and some Western European nations, such as Britain (+11).”

President’s Obama’s median popularity of 42 percent is more than double that of G20 summit host Vladimir Putin’s 19 percent. The only country where Putin inspires more confidence than Obama is China.

Both abroad and at home, Obama’s popularity seems much higher when compared to other politicians. The Real Clear Politicsaverage of polls shows his approval at 44 percent and disapproval at nearly 51 percent. Congress, however, has a 15.5 percent approval rating and 76 percent disapproval rating.

Much of Obama’s popularity can be credited to the fact that he’s not George W. Bush. Kohut called the gap between the current and former president as “yawning.”

This comparison remains President Obama’s greatest advantage.

Photo: AFP via Brendan Smialowski

Fox Hired Palin Because She Is ‘Hot’ And ‘Got Ratings’

Is Fox News really part of a right wing conspiracy to manipulate the news, or is it just a bunch of rich guys looking to become richer? An Associated Press interview with Roger Ailes suggests that the Fox News president places ratings above ideology, especially when it comes to a certain “foxy” Tea Party figure. Ailes makes it clear that, rather than supporting Sarah Palin’s ideas, he was far more concerned about her popularity and physical appearance:

Since 2002, Fox News has sealed the deal as ratings leader, dominating cable-news competition (and tying them in knots) in daytime, as well as in prime time with a murderers’ row of hosts led by Bill O’Reilly and Sean Hannity. The past year, Fox News Channel drew an average 1.1 million viewers — more than CNN and MSNBC combined.

Propelled by Ailes’ “fair and balanced” branding, it successfully has targeted viewers who believe the other cable-news networks, and maybe the media overall, display a liberal tilt from which Fox News delivers them with unvarnished truth. Preaching its fairer-than-thou gospel, Fox News leveraged the public’s distrust for the media while positioning itself as the anti-media news-media alternative.

Or so it seems to Fox News’ detractors, who lodge nonstop salvos against a network they decry as a conservative soap box writ large, even a mouthpiece for the Republican Party shaping public opinion on its behalf. These critics came to include Media Matters, a nonprofit group that polices Fox News as part of its larger stated mission to “correct conservative misinformation in the U.S. media,” and filmmaker Robert Greenwald, who in 2004 released the scathing documentary “Outfoxed: Rupert Murdoch’s War on Journalism.”

From the start, Ailes has steadfastly denied any such political bias or agenda on the part of his network. Politics, schmolitics: “I hired Sarah Palin because she was hot and got ratings,” he declares.

See? And we all thought he was conservative — turns out he’s just sexist.

Judging female political figures based solely on their appearance isn’t exactly new, and Ailes clearly isn’t the only person at Fox News who seems to be preoccupied with Palin’s attractiveness.