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With Bid To ‘Make Trump Furious,’ Democrat Ossoff Rattles Georgia GOP

With Bid To ‘Make Trump Furious,’ Democrat Ossoff Rattles Georgia GOP

SANDY SPRINGS, Ga. (Reuters) – After the crushing electoral losses that swept Donald Trump into the White House and sealed Republican control of the U.S. Congress, the Democrats’ road to recovery winds through the leafy, well-heeled suburbs of north Atlanta.

Here, Democrats are threatening a stunning special election upset that could signal how well the party can turn Trump’s low approval ratings into political gains. And they appear to have an ally in the April 18 vote: Trump himself.

In the first congressional election of the Trump era, a wave of grassroots anti-Trump fervor has positioned Democrat Jon Ossoff, a 30-year-old political newcomer, to possibly capture a House of Representatives seat held by Republicans for decades, one of 24 seats Democrats need nationwide to reclaim the House.

“The grassroots intensity here is electric, and it’s because folks are concerned that what is happening in Washington doesn’t represent our values,” Ossoff said in an interview. “This is a chance for this community to stand up and make a statement about what we believe.”

With Democrats desperate for signs of hope after Hillary Clinton’s loss to Trump, Ossoff’s underdog “Make Trump Furious” campaign has endeared him to national anti-Trump activists and pushed him well ahead of 17 rivals in polls. The documentary filmmaker and former congressional aide raised a jaw-dropping $8.3 million in the first quarter, his campaign said.

“I’ve never seen the Democrats around here so engaged, and it’s Donald Trump who got us so engaged,” said Carolyn Hadaway, 77, a veteran party activist and retired software engineer from Marietta, a city of about 60,000 people in Georgia’s central Cobb County.

Georgia would seem an unlikely venue for a Democratic revival. Trump won it by about 5 percentage points in November. And its voters backed Republican nominees in eight of the last nine presidential contests, including the last six in a row.

But demographic changes are brewing. Growing minority communities and transplants from other regions have made Atlanta’s suburbs increasingly competitive for Democrats. Georgia’s sixth congressional district, the location for April’s special election, exemplifies changes common in booming southern cities like Atlanta, Charlotte and Nashville.

The district is white collar, educated and doing well economically, with median household incomes of $80,000 versus $50,000 statewide, and nearly 60 percent of adults holding a college or professional degree, more than twice the statewide average. It is also increasingly diverse, and in recent years became a magnet for well-educated immigrants from India and other parts of Asia.

The district was about 80 percent white at the turn of the century. But since then, the black share of the population has grown from 10 percent to 13 percent, the Hispanic share has doubled to 12.5 percent and Asian representation doubled to more than 10 percent.

About a fifth of the district is now foreign born – twice the statewide average, according to census data.

Though newer immigrants may not be eligible to vote, census data indicate more than 40 percent are naturalized citizens, potentially bringing a different set of views on issues like immigration to the table than the voters in this district who sent Trump adviser and former speaker of the House Newt Gingrich to Congress for 10 straight terms.

April’s special election fills the seat vacated by Tom Price, the new secretary of health and human services. It gives both parties a chance to test their messages for election battles next year in suburban districts where Democrats need to make inroads and where Trump’s populist economic message did not sell well in November.

While Price sailed to re-election with 62 percent of the vote, Trump barely beat Clinton in Georgia’s sixth district by one percentage point. In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney beat Democratic President Barack Obama in the district by 23 points.

Republican candidates nationwide will closely watch the result as they calculate whether to embrace the president.

The 11 Republicans in the race have split between those who portray themselves as Trump supporters and establishment candidates who keep a respectful and sometimes wary distance.

“I’m ready to support him,” former state senator Dan Moody, who was endorsed by U.S. Senator David Perdue, said of Trump in an interview. But “I’m not going to jump over a cliff with him.”

Grassroots Democratic groups flood the district’s tidy suburban neighborhoods on the weekends, busing in volunteers from as far away as Maryland to go door to door on Ossoff’s behalf.

The Ossoff momentum worries Republicans, say party officials, and outside help has arrived. A super PAC aligned with House Republican leaders put more than $2 million into ads painting Ossoff as too young and inexperienced.

Ossoff played down the strategic value of a possible upset.

“The national implications here will be about how this affects the political calculus for folks in the Republican conference in the House, not about how Democrats are supposed to run in the midterms,” he said.

In a low turnout special election, getting supporters to the polls is vital, and Democrats have voted early in greater numbers than Republicans so far.

“We aren’t panicking, but there is concern,” said Maggie Holliman, a member of the Republican state executive committee.

Ossoff’s best chance is to win the April 18 vote, a “jungle primary” that features all 18 candidates from both parties on the same ballot. If no one reaches 50 percent, the top two vote getters square off on June 20.

Republicans are confident they can win a one-on-one race with Ossoff, as the party unites with organizational and financial help pouring into the Republican-majority district.

“There is a chance Ossoff can win without a runoff, but that’s his only chance. He’s benefiting from unified Democratic support and Republicans being highly divided,” said Georgia-based Republican strategist Joel McElhannon.

Polls show Ossoff hovering in the low 40s, not enough to avoid a runoff. The leading Republican, former Secretary of State Karen Handel, is well behind.

Handel has been cautious in talking about Trump. She said in an interview she expected to work with him on issues such as tax reform and border security, but “first and foremost” she would be a conservative advocate for her district.

By contrast Republicans Bob Gray, a local business executive, and Bruce LeVell, head of Trump’s national diversity coalition, pledge undivided loyalty to the White House. Gray said he was the Republican in the race who performed the behind-the-scenes political groundwork for Trump in the district.

LeVell pulled out his cellphone and showed a reporter text messages from Trump aides Kellyanne Conway, Sarah Huckabee Sanders and even Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner to prove his insider status with the White House.

“If people are looking for someone to help Trump, I’m their guy,” he said.

(Additional reporting by Howard Schneider in Washington; Editing by Jason Szep and Mary Milliken)

IMAGE: Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff greets supporters after the League of Women Voters’ candidate forum for Georgia’s 6th Congressional District special election to replace Tom Price, who is now the secretary of Health and Human Services, in Marietta, Georgia, April 3, 2017.   REUTERS/Bita Honarvar

GOP Emphasis On Obamacare Helps David Jolly Win House Seat In Florida

GOP Emphasis On Obamacare Helps David Jolly Win House Seat In Florida

By David Lauter, Tribune Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON — Republicans scored a significant victory in a special congressional election Tuesday, holding on to a seat in a swing district in Florida that Democrats had high hopes of capturing after a campaign that focused heavily on President Barack Obama’s health care law.

With all precincts reporting, Republican David Jolly held a 3,400-vote margin over Democrat Alex Sink in the district, which stretches along the Gulf Coast north of St. Petersburg. The returns remain unofficial until final mail-in and provisional ballots can be counted, but Sink conceded defeat in a statement to supporters shortly after the polls closed.

The Republican and Democratic parties and allied groups spent more than $12 million on the brief campaign, according to disclosure reports compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics. That’s about six times the average full-year House campaign in 2012, and an apparent record for a special election.

The money financed a deluge of television ads, robo-calls and mailers, mostly centered on national issues, which largely seemed to drown out local concerns in the contest.

Both parties saw the special election as a good opportunity to try out campaign themes they hope to emphasize this fall.

Special elections “give a test bed of issues and how they play out,” National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Rep. Greg Walden (R-OR) told reporters Tuesday before the votes were reported. “You can test messages, and you can test strategies, and you can test your theories on voter turnout and ID.”

The Republican theory in this case was that a heavy emphasis on Obamacare would motivate conservative voters to head to the polls, making up for Jolly’s drawbacks as a candidate, which included his current profession, Washington lobbyist, and his relative lack of money.

Although both sides cautioned in advance against over-interpreting the results of special elections, that Republican bet paid off. That’s bad news for Democrats and probably will set off a new round of nervousness among party strategists and office holders as they look ahead to the fall.

The country has relatively few congressional districts that remain truly competitive between the parties. Most Democrats already have pretty much given up on winning back control of the House this year, but if they have any hope of keeping the GOP from widening its lead, they need to be able to win districts such as the St. Petersburg-area one.

Moreover, although voters in the district are significantly whiter and older than the national average, so are the swing voters in many of the states that will hold elections this year that could determine control of the Senate.

In the aftermath of the defeat, Democrats pointed to the district’s longtime Republican leanings and the heavy spending by outside groups on Jolly’s behalf.

“Republican special interest groups poured in millions to hold on to a Republican congressional district that they’ve comfortably held for nearly 60 years,” Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida, chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, said in a statement.

But as Republicans cheerfully noted, Democrats and their allies from unions, environmental groups and liberal political action committees outspent the GOP side by almost $1 million in the race.

Jolly’s “victory shows that voters are looking for representatives who will fight to end the disaster of Obamacare” and restrain government spending, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus said in a statement. “In November, voters all across the country will have the chance to send the same message.”

Moreover, although Republicans did have the district’s history on their side, Obama carried the district in 2008 and 2012. In those years, voter turnout was significantly higher than in this off-cycle election, underscoring the advantage Democrats have in presidential years and the corresponding problem they face in getting their voters to the polls in midterm contests.

Sink led Jolly in mail-in ballots and other early votes, but she was swamped in the election-day turnout.

The special election stemmed from the death last fall of Republican C.W. “Bill” Young, who had represented the area for nearly 42 years. Before he became a lobbyist, Jolly had served as an aide to Young.

The winner gets just 10 months in office, the remainder of Young’s term. Jolly will have to immediately begin preparing for another fight in November, although Democrats, who will be hotly contesting the state’s governorship, are unlikely to be able to field as well-funded a challenger.

Screenshot/Youtube

Republican Jolly Wins Florida Special Election

Republican Jolly Wins Florida Special Election

By David Lauter, Tribune Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON — Republicans scored a significant victory in a special congressional election Tuesday, holding on to a seat in a swing district in Florida that Democrats had high hopes of capturing after a campaign that focused heavily on President Barack Obama’s health care law.

With all precincts reporting, Republican David Jolly held a 3,400-vote margin over Democrat Alex Sink in the district, which stretches along the Gulf Coast north of St. Petersburg. The returns remain unofficial until final mail-in and provisional ballots can be counted, but Sink conceded defeat in a statement to supporters shortly after the polls closed.

The Republican and Democratic parties and allied groups spent more than $12 million on the brief campaign, according to disclosure reports compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics. That’s about six times the average full-year House campaign in 2012, and an apparent record for a special election.

The money financed a deluge of television ads, robo-calls and mailers, mostly centered on national issues, which largely seemed to drown out local concerns in the contest.

Both parties saw the special election as a good opportunity to try out campaign themes they hope to emphasize this fall.

Special elections “give a test bed of issues and how they play out,” National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Rep. Greg Walden (R-OR) told reporters Tuesday before the votes were reported. “You can test messages, and you can test strategies, and you can test your theories on voter turnout and ID.”

The Republican theory in this case was that a heavy emphasis on Obamacare would motivate conservative voters to head to the polls, making up for Jolly’s drawbacks as a candidate, which included his current profession, Washington lobbyist, and his relative lack of money.

Although both sides cautioned in advance against over-interpreting the results of special elections, that Republican bet paid off. That’s bad news for Democrats and probably will set off a new round of nervousness among party strategists and office holders as they look ahead to the fall.

The country has relatively few congressional districts that remain truly competitive between the parties. Most Democrats already have pretty much given up on winning back control of the House this year, but if they have any hope of keeping the GOP from widening its lead, they need to be able to win districts such as the St. Petersburg-area one.

Moreover, although voters in the district are significantly whiter and older than the national average, so are the swing voters in many of the states that will hold elections this year that could determine control of the Senate.

In the aftermath of the defeat, Democrats pointed to the district’s longtime Republican leanings and the heavy spending by outside groups on Jolly’s behalf.

“Republican special interest groups poured in millions to hold on to a Republican congressional district that they’ve comfortably held for nearly 60 years,” Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida, chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, said in a statement.

But as Republicans cheerfully noted, Democrats and their allies from unions, environmental groups and liberal political action committees outspent the GOP side by almost $1 million in the race.

Jolly’s “victory shows that voters are looking for representatives who will fight to end the disaster of Obamacare” and restrain government spending, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus said in a statement. “In November, voters all across the country will have the chance to send the same message.”

Moreover, although Republicans did have the district’s history on their side, Obama carried the district in 2008 and 2012. In those years, voter turnout was significantly higher than in this off-cycle election, underscoring the advantage Democrats have in presidential years and the corresponding problem they face in getting their voters to the polls in midterm contests.

Sink led Jolly in mail-in ballots and other early votes, but she was swamped in the election-day turnout.

The special election stemmed from the death last fall of Republican C.W. “Bill” Young, who had represented the area for nearly 42 years. Before he became a lobbyist, Jolly had served as an aide to Young.

The winner gets just 10 months in office, the remainder of Young’s term. Jolly will have to immediately begin preparing for another fight in November, although Democrats, who will be hotly contesting the state’s governorship, are unlikely to be able to field as well-funded a challenger.

This story has been updated

Screenshot: YouTube

Democrats Risk Losing NY-9 Special Election

With less than a week to go until the special election to fill former New York Rep. Anthony Weiner’s seat in Congress, Republican candidate Bob Turner is poised to pull a shocking upset. According to a new Siena College Research Institute poll, Turner leads his Democratic opponent, Assemblyman David Weprin, by a 50 percent to 44 percent margin. Conventional wisdom had Weprin scoring an easy victory in New York’s heavily Democratic 9th district — which covers parts of southern Brooklyn and south central Queens, and has been represented by a Democrat since 1923 — but a combination of anti-Washington sentiment and campaign missteps by Weprin have left Turner in position to capture the seat.

Weprin has been haunted by an interview with the New York Daily News in which he incorrectly claimed that the national debt was only $4 trillion — about $10 trillion off from the correct figure. Turner has used the gaffe to tap into voters’ fears about the country’s economic future, and he has been able to cast Weprin as hopelessly out of touch on economic issues.

Weprin committed another costly error the next day when he dropped out of a planned debate with Turner, citing logistical issues as a result of Hurricane Irene. The storm had already passed however, making it appear that Weprin was just trying to dodge his opponent and questions about his debt gaffe.

One unavoidable problem for Weprin has been President Obama’s falling approval ratings. With the president’s approval ratings hitting an all-time low in recent days, Weprin has been hurt, not helped, by having a Democrat in the White House. Although there is still time for him to recover and squeak out a win, things are looking bleak.

Interestingly, the last special election for a New York congressional seat was the inverse of this race; Democrat Kathy Hochul was able to upset her Republican opponent, Jane Corwin, in the deeply conservative 26th district. In that race, it was the Republican who was tied to a Washington controversy; many pundits claim that Corwin was defeated as a result of voters fearing the threat of Congressional Republicans dismantling Medicare. Unlike Weprin, Corwin was helped by President Obama, whose approval ratings had shot back above 50 percent in the wake of his order to send Marines into Pakistan to kill Osama bin Laden shortly before the special election.

There is one major takeaway from the two special elections: Voters are extraordinarily angry at both parties. Corwin lost her election by being tied too closely to the congressional Medicare debate, and Weprin is in danger of losing his election by being tied too closely to the congressional argument on debt. Overall it appears that incumbents should tread very carefully in upcoming elections; until Congress improves its job performance, Washington ties will continue to be a serious liability.